Scarlet Pimpernel

Hahaha, just unreal! Suddenly the Texans cannot do anything after essentially being spotted a 24 pt lead! I expected KC would get themselves somewhat back in it by the half, but not quite like that! This might be one of the quickest turn-arounds in the playoffs (see my 1993 comment above, from the old Houston Oilers!). ETA: Four TDs in under 10 minutes now?! Chiefs going from being badly embarrassed to a 4 point lead...

Of course, lest we forget another Houston team from long ago (1993) that had a 35-3 lead vs. Buffalo early in the 2nd half...and ended up losing in just about the most incredible come-back in NFL playoff history.

True...shows how much I've paid attention! But still, it would be a highly unlikely AFC championship. I'm sure most were thinking Ravens, Pats, Chiefs in some combination would be in the final round. (ETA: And hey, give me a break, being from Cleveland...home of the BrClowns! The only team with so much talent and potential this season that they finished 6-10 and nowhere near a playoff spot thanks to crappy coaching and lack of discipline. And the most "exciting" thing was an awful helmet-hit penalty. Gah!!)

Holy cow...Houston! Could we possibly end up with an all-wild-card AFC championship? Kinda rooting for that now, I think!

A bit late here, but couldn't resist!!

Wait...I thought you were Spartacus! Or perhaps Groot.

Took this photo last night...moon in the clouds. The sky was very dramatic looking, I have to say. The moon is overexposed more than I'd like, I know, but in order to get the clouds to "show up", I sort of had to do that with a slower shutter. The blur in the clouds is due to the fact that they were actually moving rather quickly across the scene.

Not that a deterministic at that range means a lot (obligatory caveat!)...but the 18Z GFS looked more or less like we saw in previous cycles for next weekend (MLK weekend). That is, some kind of mess/ice to rain, then some pretty cold air behind it. There's some decent cold ahead of the system too before the flip. In any event, something to watch. Has the look of areas in western/central MD or western VA potentially getting into quite an icing situation, more so than the DC-Balt corridor.

Meh! But seriously, nice signal there for sure. Definitely an uptick in the amounts, especially what appear to be big solutions (and I know, taking snow maps with a huge grain of salt and all that). I'm glad the GEFS is continuing to show that still today. And yeah, that's all in the latter part of the period of the 384-h.

Interesting for sure! But even taking it as-is, couldn't it imply something possible beyond this time, if that ridging in the east gets booted out or suppressed more with the flow upstream? It's almost something like @psuhoffman mentioned earlier, a neutral to -PNA but strong -EPO ridging going up toward the Pole and some good ridging in the NAO region.

@Bob Chill, I know it's all speculation and model projections out in time, but if that ends up being true, I think we'd all be happy with it! Feb. 2014 was a fun time, and Feb. 2015 had epic cold and some neat events as well (and both years had a solid March, too).

I do believe that is an oxymoron!!

Yeah, I know...but couldn't let that go by. Maybe it was just him being snarky and my snark meter is broken (but irrational could be the case to!)! Anyhow, you're right...the uptick in activity is the main point. I honestly haven't been following too closely but from my reading here, that GEFS plot you showed is probably about the best it's been in some time. I'd take that right now and hope it's a real signal and not a "blip" that will revert to crap again!

Really? OK, yeah, looking at snow maps out at 384 hours is taken with a grain of salt and all that. But that 25% (5/20) of members you mention have the DC-Balt corridor in the "purple" and higher colors (6"+). And another four are >2" through that time. That seems like a decent signal to me. Also, while this is the total through that time, I'd wager nearly all that occurs in the latter part of the time frame seeing that we're heading toward a lousy and warm pattern for several days coming up well into next week. I'd guess that's the most bullish the GEFS has been in quite some time, and a big improvement (and step toward what the EPS has been showing?) over previous runs just a couple days ago.

@psuhoffman, many thanks for compiling this! Very informative and useful...appreciate your efforts and time!

Very true...unfortunately!! The ensembles have been very impressive and were pretty well spot on with the current pattern and look, as bad as it is for anyone wanting snow. People need to better understand the difference between single deterministic runs out beyond a week (or even less) and ensembles through the same time period and beyond. In general, ensembles will be much more reliable and accurate on the overall pattern/flow drivers without wild swings each model run. Not that ensembles don't have their "issues" and cannot be wrong, but you get the idea. (ETA: And yeah, the EPS has been killing it...and killing us, LOL!!)

LOL!! In all seriousness, I haven't been able to see the Euro or CMC maps leading up to what they're showing. But I'll make a slight assumption that despite timing differences and interpretation of how it evolves, they're both pretty well showing what is perhaps the "same" system out in that time range, correct (and not totally different waves, etc.)? Not that it matters at that range so much, but it is nice to see *something* on more than one model out there, and I guess the GFS did too, sort of. As you said, it's an event to consider at this point, which is more than we've had so far.

Thanks for this, PSU! A very good comment and well-reasoned post about what to look out for and what historically occurs if the Pacific remains stubbornly ugly still in about 2 weeks or so. I'm optimistic too, that at least we won't have a total dumpster fire in the end. For now anyway! You make an interesting point too about whether climate change renders a lot of analogues somewhat moot. Along that line I think some time back you suggested that some of the older analogues that pop up might not be as useful now as they once were. I think that would be an interesting area to investigate, and wonder when various analogue years or time periods sort of "time out" now.

Yeah, the D10 looks not half bad, all things considered. But that D15 that @psuhoffman showed is an absolute shite look...or, as he put it "exactly the opposite of what we want". Strangely, I can see how this relatively decent D10 can morph into what PSU showed for 5 days later, if that ridging extending into the Aleutians doesn't move east very much or at all. The trough in the east would just get pushed out eventually, I guess, as that Aleutian ridge forces a deeper west coast trough. And we don't even need to say how lousy the NAO region is. (ETA: Nothing personal meant by my comments, @psuhoffman, that was all directed at how things looked of course and not at you! You're just the messenger. Though I assume you knew what I was saying!)

Agreed...and a very interesting look. Bob (and anyone else), looking at the 216h and 240h plots above...I can see how that ridging in the intermountain west and up in to Canada results in what could be a more favorable split-flow potential. However, looking outside that, would we also perhaps ideally want that E-W oriented ridge that's "pointing" toward the Gulf of AK to eventually be a bit farther east and orient more N-S in time? Curious what that might do, hypothetically. Could it be a hint of re-generating a more favorable -EPO?

I found a photo of the Reaper here in the Redemption Room recently...though it was rain, not snow! (ETA: I use this as a joke, but an awesome movie!! One of my all-time favorites, and too bad Morgan Freeman didn't get an Oscar for his performance in "Shawshank Redemption"!! In fact, too bad that movie didn't earn any despite several nominations.)

Your complaint is noted!

Thanks for this, WxUSAF. In a way, kind of sad we actually need this kind of notice, but given the past couple or so winters it's necessary. I'm reminded of Bob's similar post at some point (2 winters ago? I've lost track!). The medium range threads really did get to be a chore to slog through at times, to the point of being unreadable. The panic room thread is great, because it's nice for people to vent in there or be snarky, and also just make fun of it all when the going is tough (Thanks, WxWatcher007/Reaper)! So yeah, with that, just have to take things how they go, even if it's not easy. As frustrating as it can be when it's not going well, I still try to at least get some understanding from a scientific/meteorological standpoint as to why events happened as they did (because the geek in me still is interested in that!). I have zero expectation one way or another on this upcoming winter season, given some of the discussion I've seen. Looks like too many factors on either side to make a set determination...so whatever!

A'la "Kung Fu Panda"..."Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, but today is a gift. That's why it's called the present!" Sorry to go all zen there on your humor, haha!

Somehow, this reminds me of that old Saturday Night Live skit "Chicago Super Fans", where these 3 guys (I think George Wendt of "Cheers" was on that as a guest?) betting on what the Bears' score will be. One of them predicted something like "Bears 72, Lions -28"...and another asked how you can get a negative score in football...to which the reply was "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!" So with that...hey, DCA will find a way!!