Scarlet Pimpernel

It definitely is different, tornadoes and severe weather in December (or anytime in winter), at least outside the southeast U.S. I remember sometime in the winter of 1992-93 (perhaps that January?), there was severe weather in southwest Ohio (I was working for a small, private forecasting group in the Cleveland area at the time, so was following this at the time). It was very "odd"...there were even tornado watches and an actual tornado report somewhere in that area.

Wow. This is a tough one and I don't even think I can vote at this time for a "best" event. They were all great in their own way and had their own life, so to speak. I was not here for the ones prior to PD-II (I moved to the area in summer 2001), but I certainly heard a fair bit about PD-I in 1979, Feb. 1983, Superstorm March 1993, and the Jan. 1996 blizzard. I was in northeast Ohio during March 1993, we had blizzard conditions, temperatures in the teens, and got about 8-12" snow (southeast OH got close to 2 feet I believe). In Jan. 1996 I was in Atlanta in graduate school, we got a lot of rain from that followed by an inch or two of crusty snow and cold temperatures for a few days after. Anyhow, in terms of sheer snow accumulation only for the area I live in (near suburbs of northwest DC, in MD), the Jan. 22-23, 2016 blizzard and Snowmageddon 2010 top the list (I measured 24.0" from the 2016 storm and 23.5 from Snowmageddon in 2010). But taken as a whole, Snowmageddon plus the Feb. 9-10 blizzard a few days later in 2010 would probably top my list...though that's technically two storms and not one. I still recall going to bed late on Feb. 9, thinking it might be a bust, after we transitioned to freezing drizzle and some sleet after a couple inches or so of snow. I woke up the next morning around 7AM, fully expecting nothing...only to be greeted by whiteout conditions when I looked out the window. That was amazing, and lasted into the mid-afternoon. Actually, the 12-day period from Jan. 30-Feb. 10, 2010 is perhaps the most concentrated, snowy period I have ever experienced in my life (and I've lived through some snowy/cold winters in Ohio). Four warning-level events in that time: Jan. 30, Feb. 2, Feb. 5-6, and Feb. 9-10 was unreal, and two of those were genuine HECS. And we came damn close to another warning-level event around Presidents' Day that year, I recall, at least there was some possibility of that for awhile (we ended up with light snow but not a lot). The one thing about 2009-10, I've always thought the first HECS...Dec. 18-19, 2009 ("Snowpocalypse")...kind of got overshadowed by February that winter. By that time, everyone was talking about those two events separated by mere days, with hardly a mention of the December event. Which now, seems surreal that we could even do that! The December storm was near perfect (I got 20.0" from that one) in terms of temperatures and snow. And there was sheer excitement about that storm, as it was really the first true HECS in the DC area since PD-II in 2003 (yes, I know some areas got significant amounts from other events, e.g., Feb. 2006, but I'm talking area-wide DC/VA/MD region getting HECS-level snow).

Amen. It's good to see the negative height anomalies getting out near the Aleutians in the weeklies, and NOT in the Gulf of AK. I can deal with a couple of meh weeks the rest of this month and keep an eye on a transition to something a lot better as we get into January. Only exception is that I've about had it with the 2-day rain-fests. Christmas may not be white, but dammit, at least let's have it be dry and not a miserable washout like this past weekend (and again later this week)!

Wow...has the medium range thread suddenly morphed into overflow from the Panic Room lately? Reaper must be running out of suites over there! (All meant in humor here, couldn't resist!)

Not only that, but we've had several March snows in the past few years, and some of those were rather significant. And more than a couple that occurred during the daylight hours. I thought the whole "sun angle" argument was squashed as being overblown long ago. Not saying it's no issue in late Feb-Mar compared to mid-winter, but still.

Great movie, one of my favorites for the Holidays! Especially being from Cleveland, where it was filmed! I've got a lot of quotes I like from that, of course "Ohhhh, fuuuudge"!

How much rain do we need to break the annual record? Seems we should do that in the first 10 minutes or so once the rain begins tomorrow!

Ha! You better be careful and lock in an extended contract before he becomes a free agent!

I can use the free car wash. Nothing like a good rain to clean up all the salt grime from the event two weeks ago and the remaining leaf dust!

Most importantly, it looks to me like jimbob2162 seriously needs to upgrade his monitor! And what's with the floppy disk case?

Nah, it's not going faster...just seems that way because every damned store and business puts up Christmas decorations earlier and earlier every year!! I was in a CVS a year or two ago around Halloween...they had this skeleton/ghoul figure standing right next to a Santa Claus. Talk about...surreal placement there! But seriously, yes, hard to believe we're into the Christmas season already.

Well..regardless of how this event turns out, I suspect this winter at some point will give you (and all of us) a couple of solid warning-level events and far more to realistically track compared to the past two years.

Happy 1st day of meteorological winter, everyone! What a way to start it with the potential next week to track! Been many years since we could do that in December... Heh...I'm actually going to be out of town next weekend, Friday-Monday. Going to Cleveland, my sister-in-law has tickets to the Cavs game next Saturday, literally 3 rows from the floor. This was planned a couple months ago. Little did I know, hahaha! Cavs suck this year with the departure of LeBron, but hey, will be fun anyhow (they play the Wizards, no less). I may have a bit of trouble getting back into town if some of these indications are correct!

Good write-up, Matt. Can't complain really, especially after the last couple of winters. Even with the +3 to +4 call for December temperatures, the main thing is increasingly colder as the winter goes on and a lot more snow than we've seen going by what you are saying. Looks like you all at CWG are going somewhat more back-loaded on the winter (or at least mostly post-December). I feel pretty good about our prospects for a decent event or two, well into warning-level criteria territory. Take it and run.

Ha! Might be reminiscent of Dec. 24/25, 2015 when it was damn near uncomfortably muggy out on Christmas Eve!

Well, while it's still fall (wasn't sure where else to put this!), thought I'd share a couple of photos I took recently, if I may... Fall weeds: Sweetgum Leaf: Sunset on the edge of a rainy day:

I don't know...probably will be the best main analogue, but we'll probably have essences of 2011-12 in there as well!

Agree with the comment, that's a gorgeous fall photo (wherever that was taken)! Side but related note...fall is actually perhaps my favorite season just after winter. It's great to come out of the God-awful heat and humidity from a long summer for one thing. Even very warm days aren't as bad as they are in July or August, simply because days are shorter. It's too early to really care or worry about following snow events so I don't even think about that, the fall colors are great, and I love transitioning into the crisp evenings/nights and cool to mild days! October can be pretty darned awesome for the most part. So it's easy to just enjoy the changing of the season toward something gradually colder.

It may be very location-dependent of course, but thinking about it (now that you mentioned it!), I cannot recall a warning-level event at least where I'm at since 2009. Wow! We had some decent cold and minor snow/ice events a couple of years since, most notably the one in 2013 as you state. But 5"+? Can't think of any since Dec. 18-19, 2009 (and of course that was one of the "big ones" that year). That said, I seem to recall some areas farther outside the immediate suburban DC area that got decent snow since then, perhaps(?), but that's maybe about it. And of course we just missed out on the storm-that-shall-not-be-named in "late December" 2010 (Voldemort...errr, Boxing Day)! The unreal and nearly non-stop winter of 2013-14 really didn't get going until January as I recall, though December wasn't a total dud that year either.

Beautiful CAD signal and no GL low anywhere in sight! Perfect Nor'Easter for the entire coast.... Oh wait, you said tropical!!

Shawshank Redemption for the redemption room! Rehabilitated? It's just a bull**t word! One of my favorite scenes from that movie (which is one of my favorite movies).

For Feb. 5-6, I love that little relative minimum dot right over DCA (same for the totals through the Feb. 4-10 period)!!!! Anyhow, I've been here since 2001, so the biggest events for me since then would be (1)Feb. 5-6, 2010, (2)Dec. 18-19, 2009, (3)Feb. 16-17, 2003 (PD-II), (4)Feb. 9-10, 2010. That's just a rough ordering off the top of my head, mostly based on snow amounts I measured. Wish I could have been here for some of those others!

Hey everyone...best of luck with the upcoming storm! I'm sort of crossing forums here as I currently live in the Washington, DC area, and we're pretty much just looking at cold rain here. However, I grew up in the Cleveland area (mostly in Shaker Hts., but also in Lake County around Wickliffe) and still like to monitor storms that affect the old homestead. Still have family in the area so I do visit at least once a year. Unfortunately, haven't had the opportunity to visit during the winter up that way in a few years, so kind of miss experiencing snow events (and lake effect) in northeast OH. At any rate, looks like this one takes a classic track for you all. I did check KCLE's latest and saw the watch is now a warning, and they're going 8-12" from what I saw in the northern-most counties.

Ah, OK...thanks for the reminder! In February, I recall there were some in the SNE forum who were complaining about all the snow we were getting that year and how it was somehow an affront to the natural order of things, or that we here in the MA had no right to revel in the record-breaking once in a lifetime winter. Not everyone, but I remember seeing comments to that effect (granted, some from here were trolling them a bit). I found that kind of amusing (and annoying), because though places like BOS and NYC didn't get the "big" totals that winter, it's not like they had a crappy year (a lousy winter here is far worse than a lousy one up that way!). Besides, didn't NYC recently get something like three straight 40"+ years shortly before that season?

That was a bonus, yes! ! But didn't the December storm also do the same (maybe NYC got hit too, can't recall that offhand).