Scarlet Pimpernel

Gotta go with the early March wind storm in terms of a single stand-out area-wide event. The total precipitation through the year would also be up there, as that was also record-breaking.

Saw that...tops of the trees literally appeared reddish colored as the sun was rising through the clouds. Really cool! Unfortunately, I didn't have a chance to grab a photo before the lighting changed, but at least I got to see it briefly!

Getting in late here, catching up on things...I think Bob pretty well covered the differences between those two events, and I'll add some here if I may. I honestly cannot remember the details of the "storm that shall not be named" in Dec. 2010. I do recall it looking favorable, then we were sort of out of it, then literally on Christmas Eve we got sucked back in by a couple of nice GFS runs that had an expanded precip shield. Though I think that was perhaps the only model really that had anything of note for our area (OK, maybe the SREF did too). We actually did get winter storm warnings posted as I recall, then those were subsequently backed off until we had nothing but wind and flurries. Those kinds of systems, places like Philly and north can fare a lot better; we have much less leeway for what needs to be right to score on those kinds of subtle NS/SS interactions and/or Miller-B type systems (Feb. 9-10, 2010 is the prime example of the rare time we can get it to work for our area!). The Jan. 2016 blizzard, as Bob says, was a classic set-up for us. I know it's hindsight and perhaps easy to say this a bit flippantly now, but the set-up was almost all but a guarantee of something significant here. Sure, there were nuances and other small-scale factors that oscillated the thinking back and forth...not to mention worry at every detail that could affect how much snow we'd get. But I distinctly recall looking at the guidance the Saturday afternoon beforehand (storm hit the following Friday/Saturday) and looking at the discussion in here. At that point, (nearly) every piece of guidance fell in line with a similar look, and we all *knew* something significant was headed this way. And they didn't really waver that much on the main factors from then on. It was a matter of working out the details and waiting. Feb. 5-6, 2010 is another example of a storm that was well-known days in advance (could add PD-II and Dec. 18-19, 2009 too I guess).

Uhhh, may want to re-think that...(and yes, he does always say "shut up, Chuck!" ). Thanks, I was just about to mention it is Beethoven (one of my favorites, as well), but you ninja'd me!!

We certainly clutch pearls a lot in this forum!

Well at least Jan 1-29, 2010 wasn't totally awful either!

Yeah I know, kind of like mentioning a certain storm in Dec 2010. But at least we all know what happened in Jan 2016 of that winter!

LOL! Damn near the entire eastern half of the Pacific has a negative anomaly. Just ridiculous. I think December 2015 rang and wants an encore.

Good point on the "two base states.". Surely if we had cashed in with the southern snow earlier this month, even an upper level advisory criteria snow around here, nerves would be a lot less frayed now. Luck (bad) of the draw I suppose. So this blah period would still suck but not nearly as much and would not seem quite so desperate. I'd be less than honest if I didn't admit that these most recent indications are quite frustrating and even getting worrisome. But I have to believe this will change eventually to some good winter pattern, and not in mid-March when it doesn't much matter. From discussions I've seen in here, there seem to just be too many "positive" indicators to think we get a near shutout until it's all but too late in the season. Not saying anything is guaranteed, but this doesn't feel like some of the truly awful winters where everyone knew the teleconnections and everything else were hopeless from the start.

Weeks 55-60 promise to look solid...

I have a feeling the next round of Euro weeklies are going to look like a spectacular wreck and the Panic Room will be filling up fast (if it isn't already)!!

It's not too early to start a thread for that...let's do it!

Sometimes, sanity is not pretty! ("A little madness now and then, is cherished by the wisest men!")

I know this is perhaps a bit off topic in this particular thread, but I saw that "punting Jan. 20" comment and your correct reply that we'd miss a large percentage of our normal climo snow if we ignored anything after that date! Well, off the top of my head in the time since I've been here (since 2001), here's what we'd miss if we "ended" winter on Jan. 20: Early Feb. 2003 (moderate event) Feb. 16-17, 2003 (PD-II) Late Feb. 2003 (another moderate event to close out that winter) Feb. 11-12, 2006 Feb. 2007 (remarkable cold and some snow...though no huge storms we just missed a ton from Valentine's Day event, but did get a lot of sleet/ice) Mar. 1-2, 2009 Jan. 30, 2010 (6-8" cold powder here) Feb. 2, 2010 (quick warning-level event on Groundhog's Day) Feb. 5-6, 2010; Feb. 9-10, 2010 (need we say more?) Mar. 25, 2013 Feb. 12-13, 2014 Mar. 2-3, 2014 Mar. 16-17, 2014 Mar. 25, 2014 Feb. 2015 (even colder than Feb. 2007, with a couple of solid events in that month) Mar. 5, 2015 Jan. 22-23, 2016 Mar. 2017 (can't remember exact date, around the 20th, snow followed by a layer of 3" sleet) Mar. 22, 2018 I know there are others in the time before 2001, and these are only the "most significant" events post 2001 that I'm recalling here (may be others I neglected to mention too). But you get the idea! So yeah, that sun angle and melting really sucked I tell ya! Who needed Snowmageddon anyhow?? (ETA: D'oh! Missed a couple of obvious ones and added them...including from 2010, can't believe I forgot that!)

It'll ensure we have a kick-"ash" Jan-Feb-Mar!! (Just couldn't resist that, I'm sorry...sort of!)

Interesting. Though I'd almost argue he's being a bit disingenuous or unfair or even overly strict, as there have been a few to several years with a mere trace of snow if not exactly "0.0" at all of the 3 local area airport locations in December (and a trace is really officially "nothing measured"). I can see his point though, that it's truly hard to get absolute zero in December...perhaps harder at BWI or IAD than at DCA. Consider it the difference between a no-hitter and a perfect game, I suppose! December 2015 is surely the standard for ultimate suckiness for any winter month...taking both lack of snow and torch-like temperatures into account. DCA, in fact, recorded none (not even a trace!) of snow that December from what I saw. BWI somehow mustered a trace. IAD also managed a trace that year. But nothing actually measurable. Recall that's the December that had a +11 to +12 temperature departure for the month, and I'd argue that was *far* worse than how this December panned out. At the least this year, we had some honest chill in the air at times.

This is an excellent analysis. There you go again, PSU, using things like *gasp!* science and *gasp!* reasoning in this age of fake news and science denial! Fetch the fainting couch and my smelling salts! In all seriousness, thanks for stating what you did here. I get the frustration that many have here, now that December is all but a shutout in terms of snow. But one cannot deny the overall pattern driving features were reasonably well forecast. No way are those going to pick out potential individual shortwaves that might lead to an event here, nor are they "designed" to. Any more than saying "we expect below normal temperatures for the DJF period as a whole" in the late fall would guarantee epic amounts of snow. While it is true that the signals...-NAO/+PNA, etc...would lead one to infer higher chances of a good snow event in this area (or some snow of any kind, not necessarily a HECS), you can't guarantee it nor can you expect those signals to "see" individual smaller-scale events like that. All we can do is hope the pattern drivers continue to look favorable, and likely sometime down the road it will result in a solid score (or two, or three, between now and mid-March). Beats the hell out of looking at weeks of lousy pattern with no end in sight and absolutely no chance at all.

Happy Christmas, everyone! No matter how much snow we get (or don't get!), the community here is great. As are the interesting personalities, for better or worse! Yeah, sounding a bit sentimental here, after a couple glasses of wine! At any rate, cheers to all!

It flips us off every 6 hours FIFY...

Well, in this forum, it *is* like a religion! "In the name of the -NAO, the -EPO, and the +PNA, amen!"

Well holy sh*t! The Browns won again...and stand with a 0.500 record at 7-7-1! After going 0-for-all-of-last-season, that's a slight improvement. Hell, they've got as many wins as the Cavaliers do!

Well, well, that's certainly good news (any details??). I suppose the 12Z EPS avoided the bad chili.

Sounds like a real pain in the...well, you know! (Cue Seinfeld episode with the "Assman")

Happy Holidays, everyone!! Solstice moon rising behind a tree...

@PrinceFrederickWx ...I wonder the same thing. If that were a "one hit wonder" winter, or if there were no other events close to as significant that year, would that event be viewed a bit differently. Not that I'd trade anything from 2009-10 at all, mind you, haha! But like I said, the fact that the Dec. 2009 event could almost be an "afterthought" or "one of the big-3" by mid-February of that winter is surreal and a true testament to how record-breaking that year was. Will we see the likes of that again? Upon thinking of things more, I'd still have to say the most impactful and significant event in my lifetime was the "White Hurricane" that hit Ohio and other parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes, on Jan. 26-27, 1978. No, the snow was not record-breaking or even all that incredible where I was in northeast Ohio (6-12", there about). But truly dangerous and severe blizzard conditions for a full day, with wind gusts pushing 70-100 MPH and temperatures in the single-digits. Not to mention the record-breaking low pressure over a large area (957 mb as it passed right over Cleveland, into Lake Erie and eventually southern Canada). The temperature dropped 30 degrees in a 2-hour period between 4-6 AM that morning. All that coupled with the fact that it occurred in the second of two very cold and snowy winters in the eastern U.S.