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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035

  1. 1 minute ago, canderson said:

    Central Park likely verifies blizzard conditions today too. NYC is gonna see close to 3' I think. 

    They may mix for a time in the city, northern Jersey though? Yea more than likely. 

    We're not going to get the direct enhanced forcing death band they're getting but this is eventually going to translate into PA in the form of enhancing the deform precip already over PA and perhaps a less intense (but still heavy) embedded band extending into the eastern half of PA somewhere. Personally not ruling out this setting up even further northwest (ala December storm) either.  Near term guidance is eventually going to see it and get better placement on it later this afternoon, I dunno how much stock I'd put in the globals at this stage in the game trying to place meso features like this. 

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  2. 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:

    I think that may be taking people surprise. A couple of friends of mine back near Huntingdon were saying about how it barely snowed at all yesterday and overnight but it's snowing pretty good this morning. 

    Yea it was definitely slow going haha. By the time I fell asleep late last night I had 2.5" to show for 15 hrs of mostly light snow. There looks like a pretty good batch of heavier precip on radar heading for southern Huntingdon County south of 22. 

  3. Just now, canderson said:

    Yup. NNJ too. Someone out there gets more than 2 feet, easy, imo. 

    I'm skeptical we get any of the CCB in HBG. I think we'll be too far SE. 

    I cautioned last night about the widespread nature of big totals getting back deep in C-PA on models like the 12k NAM while also noting that near term stuff like the HRRR probably wasn't seeing the deform shield well enough.. which looks reasonable so far this morning. I think some bigger totals do get back into C-PA but probably in a narrower area within most of the Sus Valley into the central counties seeing more moderate gains today. 

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  4. Back to the discussion at hand, namely the ongoing storm...

    I still think the focus of the biggest totals will be that Lehigh Valley area of far eastern PA in northern half of NJ/NYC. And really the NAM still reflected that.. but the 0z run really hooked up with the major deform band reaching far back deep into C-PA. I'm a bit suspect of such a widespread area of a foot plus so far back like the 12k NAM has, but I do think the deform shield is probably being undermodelled on near term guidance like the HRRR. But remember.. HRRR goes out to 18 hours except for the 0,6,12,18z runs and we're still not really at the time when this deform from the deepening coastal gets flung back into PA at the end of the regular HRRR runs. And I'm more looking at other short term guidance for anything out past that anyways. The major features (850/700 lows) are well placed to go along with a very robust 850mb jet pointed into eastern PA so there's likely going to be a stripe of more significant totals.. just not sure on how widespread. 

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  5. 5 minutes ago, paweather said:

    Sorry Just discounted. the EURO, why? One run out of how many. I just want to understand why. 

    I'm talking about several runs including all of Friday with the op being south and ensemble mean barely getting the 6" line above the mason-dixon line. That 30-40" solution in VA/DC was a couple days before that. Nowhere did I say I discounted it... I just said I didn't think it was superior to other guidance the few days leading up and it wasn't. 

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  6. 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    Red tagger just dumped on the euro in ma.  Guess someone is dismayed by its roaming jackpot so defintely a tough storm for modeling.

    Not wrong though, I don't think it was overly superior to other model guidance trying to reel this thing in the last few days. There was that particular run he referenced where the bullseye was in northern VA but it also spent a whole model cycle being south with the 0z Friday run missing a chunk of the Sus Valley and the very area of eastern PA and northern NJ targeted with what will likely be the biggest totals (2'+) was only getting a trace at best.   

  7. Hard to ignore the trend on guidance centering the biggest amounts on far eastern PA/northern half of NJ into NYC with the coastal low getting captured a bit higher up the coast. Now when i say "biggest amounts" I"m mainly talking about the excessive stuff (20+). I still like the general 8-14" in our region, but we're going to have to watch the southern tier and NW part of C-PA for some bust potential either direction as well as a zone TBD that could see higher amounts than the said 8-14". 

    As mentioned, the most intense deform from the coastal winding up targets far eastern PA/Nj/NYC, but the overall fetch and likely extension of this deform is still going to reach back into C-PA and questions are where and how intense? You look at models like the 3k NAM and RGEM and they actually arc the best snow with this more through northern/central, while Euro/GFS runs southern third of the state. I'm not sure the near term guidance (HRRR) is robust enough with the precip shield/banding later on tonight into tomorrow but there's a lot to be determined yet and HRRR (outside of the 0,6,12,18z) doesn't even reach out to where the coastal really winds up yet. Also have to monitor the slot far southern tier LSV and maybe some mix while precip's light but worst case scenario I still expect at least 5-8". Again though, the overall picture is this continues to look like a long duration general 8-14" snowfall over the area. 

    Ratios. Taking a rough gauge of the latest Euro snowmap, for instance... The big amounts stretching back deep into C-PA are driven more by high ratios while the big amounts in the Lehigh Valley into NJ are driven by QPF (likely the better bet to realize widespread big amounts). This is also notable on the RGEM too. Not to say there won't be notably higher ratios late in the storm, but I think it will be narrowed down where the bands set up at that stage of the storm inside of the overall precip shield. If your running a steady light to moderate rate outside of heavier bands, probably going to continue to have 10-12:1 type ratios.  

    Biggest takeaway, patience is definitely required for this event. 

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  8. Saw flurries start as early as about 5am this morning snow but really didn't get going til about 9am this morning. Currently light snow and 1.3" on the ground.

    I'm not really seeing many surprises in the early going. Guidance has had this starting slow for days and that's what its doing. Near term stuff has had the initial surge of snowfall followed by a bit of light period while the precip shield rebuilds from Ohio and pushes into PA later this afternoon, which judging by radar trends seems on target. 

     

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  9. 1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

    Just popping in so I can join y'all for a free beer. :drunk:

    Really just wanted to say good luck, we've had a solid winter so far in the western part of the state, glad to see a storm that looks to have a little something ( in some cases a lot of something) for everyone. 

    Lol, good luck over there too. Looks like Pittsburgh's going to be getting started within the next couple hours. 

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  10. I don't know why we're all so feisty in here tonight.

    Here's the thing with some of these crazy amounts coming out of models like the RGEM. If someone in eastern PA sees 40-55" from this storm I'll buy everyone in here a beer lol. To me, nailing down this deform band late in the storm means trying to locate an area that sees perhaps up to two feet or so but likely more of a general 18-24" bullseye area. Other than that, this is within a zone where basically every regular in here including 2001kx and wmsptwx should easily see a warning event and I think this is mostly a 10-14+" swath for everyone under I-80 (and probably above it too eastern third to half of PA). We'll have to watch for the slot and perhaps a slight bit of mixing toward the MD border, but I don't think this kills totals all that much by the end if it happens. We should have snows flung back into PA for a good while even if we don't get the intense deform band in our area.

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  11. 3 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

    I'm thinking someone took the 00Z Canadian R-Gem and gave either their latent heat equations the LFM treatment or treated the upslope into the southern Poconos the old Canadian Regional lower mainland of BC treatment. no way in heck the Lehigh Valley and I-78 corridor down to the Reading Outlets see 40-55" of snow out of this event.

    Hah maybe they forgot to change the units from cm to inches. Funny thing is that still would convert to 18-24" there, lol.

     

  12. 6 minutes ago, Greensnow said:

    BGM-:lol:

    Well, that escalated quickly. Miller-B systems feature one low
    weakening - in this case in the mid Ohio Valley - and
    transferring energy to a new coastal low. They are notorious
    for being very difficult to forecast, and indeed there still
    remains quite a bit of spread in the models. However, most of
    them have trended significantly stronger with coastal low
    development while also keeping it closer to shore as it moves up
    the coast.

    Yup, that's been the last 24 hrs in a nutshell watching guidance evolve with this lol. 

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