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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035

  1. 33 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    yep. Gfs still separated but ticked in right direction. Plenty of time for it to come around although suppressed is def a possibility as cold is fresh and deep. 

    I think even if the southern wave doesn't work out there's a northern branch shortwave and likely arctic frontal passage to be watched for there... and it would probably be a pretty potent one too given the arctic air on the table. Euro's the only one with this bigger storm attm, but it's been keeping this solution plus enjoying solid support from it's ensembles.. so def more than a fluky run or something like that. We'll see how things progress.

    Did notice guidance isn't completely dumping the PV into the Great Lakes/NE today after whatever this system ends up being.. keeping the core of stupid cold -35 to -40ºC 850mb air just above over on the Canadian side of the North Central/Great Lakes. GFS drops it down more getting -20 to -25ºC 850mb air into the commonwealth. Euro cold but not quite as cold, which isn't too bad as that set up could be better in terms of getting a gradient pattern with some well tracked systems. Euro ran another system out around D8 or so. 

    • Like 1
  2. 42 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said:

    I actually grew up in Altoona --went to Keith/AAHS and lived in Sinking Valley for six years prior to leaving home.  I definitely miss the snowfalls up in the valley--especially when it was raining in the city.  My mom actually lived near the Campus until about five years ago, up at the top of N. 4th Street.  

    Really impressive how far west the heavy banding got.  

    Oh wow thats cool, yea I'm walking distance from the campus where I'm at. 

    Sinking Valley can def get some interesting weather.. especially on the mountain end. The wind's really kicked up this afternoon so there's likely to be some nice drifts over there. 

  3. The initial WAA phase of the storm with the primary is where I came up pretty short as better precip kind of split this area (going southern tier and up around UNV and N from there). I had under 2 inches all the way until later Sunday Evening.  A few more inches from that and would've pretty much been on target with what I expected here. Otherwise, the 8-14" call with the imbedded area of heavier amounts ended up working out pretty good. 

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  4. 9" storm total is what I'm sending in (4.7" from 9am-9am Sun/Mon and 4.3" in the past 24 hrs with most of that falling last night).

    May have been a little bit more with compaction but the way this storm had mostly slow accumulation for the most part I just did two 24 hour clears of my one snowboard. Depth on the untouched board measuring a bit over 8" so the 9" should be a pretty accurate number. 

    • Like 1
  5. 16 minutes ago, CoralRed said:

    No joke.  They just repeated before going to commercial: three people dead and snow.  Story coming up.  Amazing they didn't start with the deaths but with weather stories around the area. 

    It was a murder-suicide involving a couple and their neighbor.  It happened about 9:00 this morning.  The couple had a 15 year old special needs child.  They mentioned shovelling but were not more specific.

    I saw an article about that this afternoon from one of the local news stations here. DA quoted as saying there was some long running dispute between them but sounds like whatever they disagreed about with the snow was the tipping point. Still insane either way. 

    Quote

    Salavantis said the preliminary investigation indicates that there was a long-running dispute among the parties involved, but “this morning, the dispute was exacerbated by a disagreement over snow disposal.”

    https://wjactv.com/news/nation-world/police-3-dead-in-pennsylvania-shooting-in-fight-over-snow-removal

    • Thanks 1
  6. 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

    Thanks.  I would think based off of the snow map that way more than 1" of liquid would be there unless there is another storm after that one.  The map that was posted went out 10 days and was the total snow over the 240 hours.  Your map only goes out 7 days.  Hmmm

    The D7 storm that generated the majority of the snow in that crazy Kuchera map was a very cold storm (850 temps -8 to -10ºC and colder all storm) and no doubt the Kuchera method was cranking out some really big ratios (probably not realistic for a widespread synoptic system). 10:1 cut the 10 day totals more than in half in the central counties . Either way, it's a very active looking period coming up with significant arctic air in the fold and what appears to be an active storm track. Plus that "cutter" at the end of this week now has more frozen than liquid with it. That's why I started a new discussion thread to talk about all this separate from this long duration storm thread lol. 

    • Like 1
  7. 58 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

    It’s snowing pretty good despite the “dry slot”, but I know I am in a radar shadow.
     

     

    57 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    Same here. Radar says no snow but this is my no snow 

     

    22 minutes ago, paweather said:

    Still coming down. Even though radar returns aren’t showing it. 

    The best forcing and deepest moisture is a bit NW right now, so your still left with the low level easterly flow still bringing in moisture and snowfall even though crystal growth is limited. This is in the lowest several thousand feet so can't really see it in the LSV from CCX or LWX radar. Looking at KDIX (Philly) radar you can see the radar is filled in with echoes and that continues into the LSV.  

    • Like 2
  8. 2 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

    Finally started to snow again.  Nice sized flakes and light to maybe moderate.  Am a little concerned about being on the western fringe of things here.

    State College is looking pretty decent at the moment. Hoping that heavier area between here and Harrisburg is able to get back to the I-99 corridor, it's making a good press so far. 

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