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Posts posted by MAG5035

  1. 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    @MAG5035 based on what you said this afternoon on how high amounts might go, is it safe to assume that the NAM is at the upper end of the envelope, potential wise? 


    1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Our friends down south are laughing off the NAM. Not a wise decision IMHO. 

    Well they can laugh but I'm starting to think that Subforum region is in the position the LSV was with the December storm. I mean that accumulation call I made earlier was a fairly safe preliminary call and I didn't bite on yesterday's model cycle dropping south either so I liked southern PA US-22 and south down to MD's I-70 corridor for the heavy swath. It's definitely looking like this heavy corridor is shifting north but like the LSV in the Dec storm, there was still a good event to be had before any mixing issues and I think the DC and north folks do fine. 

    I said earlier that we def could see higher amounts than the 8-14 but probably less than 20"... and I'm sticking with that for now but I'm definitely watching what guidance is starting to do.. Models are starting to slow that coastal low down again which lengthens the time the deform hangs. They're also starting to solidify the precip shield.. which is something I expected given the anomalous 850mb easterly flow all the way into the Ohio Valley with the 850 low transferring just underneath PA. 

    On CTP issuing watches for just the first tier of counties:

    Latest ensemble probabilities have increased likelihood for
    warning criteria snowfall across our southern tier Sun-Mon, with
    sufficient confidence to hoist Winter Storm Watch headlines
    from Somerset to Lancaster Counties. This in good collaboration
    with LWX and PHI and latest Snowprobs, which are showing nearly
    categorical likelihood of exceeding Advisory criteria and 65-70%
    likelihood of exceeding 6" over York and Lancaster Counties.
    Watches *may* need to be expanded slightly northward in time,
    but it appears that most of the remainder of central PA south of
    I80 is looking at Advisory criteria snow, and at this time no
    ptype issues to speak of.

    Rolling with the ensemble guidance generally by the sounds of it, which is a good start considering op models are still in flux right now. If the Euro and ensembles start reflecting what the early stuff is putting forth tonight, they will likely be adding counties and perhaps more than slightly northward. One thing to consider for that I-80 corridor, if say the ensembles get like UNV and IPT into a 6" mean.. duration. It's likely they will be considering the 8" in 24 hrs over the 6" in 12hr criteria for a WSW. They may roll with an advisory even if the I-80 corridor sees 6" or so by the end. That's if the I-80 corridor doesn't end up in the thick of it too, lol. 

    • Thanks 1
  2. 6 minutes ago, Voyager said:

    When I saw the map on Facebook, I was wondering the same thing. What's the difference in the two zones?

    Guess he expects a uniform 8" in that zone haha, should either make the 8" a 6 inch line or bump up the low number of the 8-12". Oh well It's just the first guess map, although he had a map out yesterday so I suppose that one was the first guess on the first guess map. 

  3. Just now, Bubbler86 said:

    Not saying good or bad but very different.  Actually a lot of big snows do mix the whole way up to CTP. 

    Considering where the coastal's at off the VA and Delmarva coast, it's really punching the mix into PA pretty far. It has a really intense 850 mb jet that looks like it advects in near to slightly above zero 850 temps in the LSV. 925mb and surface stay well below freezing. Would probably be mostly sleet. This looks like a classic really amped NAM run. 

  4. 8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

    Dang I didn’t know that.  We need to get Mag his big daddy storm 

    Lol all the big ones from '96 on were mid-high teens storms here. 2003 may have done it between the storm and the upper level low passage the night after the storm ended but I never really measured that one. 2/5/10 I had like 17.5" I believe, but nearly 30" that week between that and 2/10/10. 2016 was close with those amounts being at the bottom of the county. 

    I'd be happy with a second double digit storm for the season, that hasn't happened here since 2010.  

    • Like 2
  5. 1 hour ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

    Can someone explain the zero precip in fayette county in the western laurels? Is that the dry slot where the transfer is happening?

    I'm not sure which model your looking at but I only saw that effect on the 3k NAM this afternoon, which was showing some mixing in SW PA into the ridges. I do know it was showing up in previous runs and it's likely the easterly flow during the transfer causing a downslope effect on guidance on the west side of the Laurel's. Today's guidance is mostly showing better precip into PA from the primary today and a better precip shield overall so I don't think this potential effect would be too much of an issue as it's being presented currently... especially in southern PA where the best QPF is right now. 

    • Like 1
  6. 23 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    Right and then as the time got closer everyone on the TV markets had an "oh god," moment and had to sound the alarm. 

    Similar thing happened in 2017? I may be off on the year, but I was at my parents house in Huntingdon county and the night before the storm, Joe Murgo's head blew up on tv like the dude from "Scanners."

    This just happened last month too. Model's putting the bullseye in the Sus Valley for the few days leading up. When the short term guidance morning of the storm was targeting places like State College and in between there to Harrisburg, I thought I might just see my first 20"+ storm since I was like 8 years old. And then the 20-40 inches ended up going from Clearfield- Williamsport-Binghamton while half the Sus Valley ended up mixing. Murgo slipped out a "s*it-load of snow" going over one of the short range model animations on his live forecast for that by the way lol.  

  7. 17 minutes ago, canderson said:

    If I get 6” out of this I’ll be pleased. Less I’ll be sad but not really mad. More I’ll be ecstatic  But half a foot seems reasonable. 

    This is going to have a nice snowfall swath but I don't think this is going to have the high top end potential of the December system. With that said, we're getting pretty close to meso range and it's likely there's going to be some imbedded meso features in this precip shield that show up and probably bolster some totals.

    I'm liking a general 8-14" where the handoff pivots the precip shield without slotting, which I think at the moment roughly favors the southern tier east of US 219 and from US 22 and south down into the I-70 corridor in Northern MD. 4-8" is between that and I-80 and 2-5" above, with the lower side of the range NE PA. I think all of SW PA below I-80 could see a 4-8" type event if there's no mixing issues, which models have been bringing that primary south some. That would basically be how I'd draw my snowmap at the moment if I were to do so. 

    Could there be bigger totals? Yea, but I think it stays under 20". 


    • Like 3
  8. 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    To quote a famous poster from the Mid Atlantic thread....”the Euro was a disaster!”

    The Euro is on its own with this type of outcome. Do you think it is just one off run, especially when all other major guidance has the storm further north & west?

     I'm not sure, this was a huge shift from 12z. Like I said, this was what the Euro had been doing before it's big run last night at 0z, while the GFS was punching the primary almost to Cleveland and having all kinds of mixing problems. The GFS has shifted more toward a Canadian like primary track, but still looks like the model with the most mixing issues.

     Should note the Euro map i posted wasn't done in New England as eastern Mass gets crushed. But the heavy swath even ducks Philly and NYC. Pretty much gonna have to blend the ensembles tonight, these ops are all over the place with their snow swath. Figured we'd be starting to center this up but not tonight lol. Euro's probably too suppressed this run, and Canadian/Icon are probably too amped north. Almost looks like the GFS/GEFS/UKMET represents some kind of middle ground. Nothing else shaves off that precip shield in eastern PA like the Euro did... I don't buy that extreme of an erosion.  

    • Like 1
  9. Lol what a clunker on the Euro, ouch. It's reverting to what it was mostly doing a couple days ago before the huge run last night at 0z, killing the primary precip in PA and ducking the coastal swath. Probably the furthest these ops have diverged from each other in the last few days. 

    0z vs 12z 



  10. 1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

    You think the euro is onto something or just had bad beer for dinner ??

    if it continues to tick south this may be a real battle royale. Gut say it cones north 

    Well GFS certainly isn't giving up much, there's some mixing southern tier and def SW PA but it's winding up that deform band with the coastal up through 96 in southern PA.

  11. 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    While we are waiting on the rest of the 0z runs, could anyone provide their thoughts on the pattern After the early week snowstorm ?

    Well, it's looking quite likely we face the prospect of a couple day warmup and cutter at the end of next week as trough and cold settle back into the west again. PNA temporarily neutralizes with the upcoming storm before diving again. -NAO/AO blocking remains firm, EPO/WPO look generally negative-ish.

    So after we have this probable cutter next week we look to settle into a cool but not cold pattern for the time being with storm chances but some vulnerablity to cutters. MJO has been back in the picture near the Phase 6/7 line, and guidance generally gets it slowly into 7 at a pretty decent amplitude... which reflects the previous sentence pretty decently. A warmish phase but not quite the dead ringer torch phase 4-6 is. 


    What would really be nice is eventually progressing the MJO pulse toward 8-1-2... which would likely put some of the really cold air in play on this side of the country.  Either way, I don't currently see any major detrimental things that would prevent us from having our chances getting into the first half of next month. 

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  12. I'm not sweating some stuff shifting around some right now. We have probably almost half the storm to go still out of NAM range and this thing's arriving roughly in D3 range. 

    Mentioned this earlier today but look at the snow swath out in the midwest. Chicago getting clobbered with a snowstorm is typically from an event that is trying to cut and would give us p-type issues. We have blocking/confluence and such but I just don't think it's overwhelming enough that this thing get's completely stuffed or something like that. How many storm examples are out there of a Chicago - DC heavy snow axis? Or even a Chicago-NYC. Not very many. It's def a unique setup. 

    • Like 2
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