MAG5035

On 4/1/2023 at 5:21 PM, canderson said:

Hey @MAG5035 you ok? Altoona was knocked out. 

Yea I was okay in my immediate neighborhood. Main issues seemed to come from the initial arrival of that line and damage here was more sporadic like a typical severe outbreak. The two most significant wind damage incidents noted in and around town was a portion of a bowling alley’s roof blew off and took out lines and hit a house across the street and also a metal roof getting peeled off off another warehouse type building north of Altoona in Bellwood. 

https://www.altoonamirror.com/news/local-news/2023/04/wind-causes-modest-damage/

The large scale wind event aspect of that storm system was definitely not all that noteworthy here, the highest gust i registered on my weather station was only 34mph. 

Winds are starting to ramp up here, the approaching line of storms is definitely going to be interesting. 

Pretty impressive satellite image, it’s overlayed with wind gusts, lightning, and pressure change. Red contours are pressure rises (mb/hr) and blue is pressure falls

Front arrived a little after 8 with a 39mph wind gust and a rapid drop in temps from the mid 40s to about 34-35ºF. Did have a changeover in the last half hour and the remaining precip around is currently snow. 

8 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Thank you thank you, good stuff.  The thing I'm struggling with, at least around here anyway, is that I've never seen hail that didn't at least have somewhat of that milky white appearance to it, whereas this stuff was crystal clear.  Then on the other hand, I also haven't seen anything from an atmospheric standpoint that would indicate sleet was possible in that environment (i.e. no layers where a melting and refreeze would be possible).  My head tells me it had to be hail but my eyes were telling me another thing.  The only thing that's certain is that I've spent way too much time thinking about this haha.

I missed this convo yesterday, but most certainly would have been a hail situation looking at the mesoanalysis stuff from yesterday afternoon. Freezing level was well above 850mb closer to 700mb. Pretty steep low and mid-level lapses during max heating but minimal CAPE would have limited storm top height and updraft strength. Result is the potential was there for only small hailstone formation and also that the storm updraft wouldn’t have carried them very high into much colder temps aloft. Rapid freezing and also layering from being caught in a stronger storm updraft can give the hail the cloudier appearance. Hail is clear when the ice freezes slower, which was likely the case with the limited convective potential and cloud top height yesterday. 

Just had what might’ve been a better thunderstorm than anything I saw last year lol. Really vivid lightning/thunder for March, pea sized hail, gusty wind,  and 0.36” in 20 min with a max rate of 1.6”/hr. Rain spouts caved haha. 0.94” of rain on the day so far. 

7 hours ago, Voyager said:

So how wet has it been in Arizona?

Year to date, the PWS a couple blocks from my house has received 4.06" of precipitation. Average annual precip is 7.75", so we've already passed the halfway point to our annual average...in less than three months. 

There was even a tornado that touched down and did damage in the Los Angeles suburb of Monebello late Wednesday morning, which LA NWS recently confirmed was an EF-1. 

0z GFS just ripped about the whole subforum with 10”+ from that 3/29 thing.

It’s definitely an interesting looking period next week with the NAO, EPO, and WPO all nosing back negative favoring below average temps most of next week and this weekend system ushering in the colder regime kind of setting the deck for that following system to possibly track favorably. 

Still 23°F here with a pretty brutal wind. 17°F was the low this morning.

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Texas payed like garbage until the last two minutes. Go figure. Hook ‘em!

After perusing the guidance today I decided on a blend of the ensembles lol. So close.

53 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Pretty unusual conditions this time of the day.  Temp 41.0 with a relative humidity of 27% !!  That comes out to a dew point of 9.5 degrees!  You don't usually see 27% humidity around 9:30pm in the winter.  Next month much more likely to have sub-30% RH's during the daytime.  

On a side note...yesterday was brutal with temps mid 30's and winds gusting to 30mph.  It felt like we were back to the single digit temps of 12/23 & 24.  Our bodies have been acclimating to the abnormal warmth from the last 2 months.  Temps in the upper 40's this afternoon were much more tolerable.

CTP was considering issuing fire weather products this afternoon with the winds and low RH meeting criteria, but decided not to since Forestry determined fine fuels still had moisture that was above criteria threshold, that and there’s no trees or fine fuels on @canderson’s street left to burn since they all blew away lol. 

Similar setup tomorrow with a bit less wind that might not actually meet the criteria. Laurel’s still have or have had snow on the ground the last couple days, so can’t see that being much of an issue there. CTP notes SC PA will have lowest RH values via downsloping tomorrow. Something to consider if one wants to burn tomorrow I suppose. It is getting to that time of the year that there’s usually a heightened brush fire risk, especially since it’s been fairly dry and no snowpack in the Sus Valley and a lot of the central south of 80. 

CTP

Quote

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry air remains in place this evening, after being pulled in
from the NW this afternoon behind the departing coastal storm.
Moisture will increase only a little tonight, with RH likely dropping
down below 30 percent again on Thursday along and south of
I-80. Lowest RH values will likely be across south central PA,
in downsloping flow off the Laurel Highlands.

Thursday will be less windy than today, with max gusts of 15-20
mph, and higher gusts possible in the higher terrain.

33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

It's getting close to that time to call it.

 

If this look holds I wonder if I'll see Mammoth Lakes in May. After getting some rain yesterday, today's GFS shows over 12" of QPF over the next 10 days. All of it snow. (Euro "only" shows a little over 6" of QPF)

I was considering that potential event next week as the last good chance of something bigger before we’re at a point where it becomes much harder to line something up, though we’re likely to be dealing with periods of notable below average temps the rest of the month into early April. 

As it looks now, I think yesterday’s nor’easter probably will be the signature event of the 22-23 winter in the Northeastern US. Something finally took advantage of those flaming hot above average SSTs in the NW Atlantic we’ve had all winter and there were several 30-40”+ amounts to show for it in the higher/more interior parts of NWS Albany and Boston’s CWAs. On that same note, I feel that same thing probably contributed to the lower elevations of southern New England doing their best LSV impression with big snow map totals and not much on the ground to show for it.  

This threat can definitely come back but it’s certainly not looking great today. Models seem to be really keying in on another strong trough dumping into the SW US which supresses whatever southern stream energy that does eject out while building eastern heights. Result is no amp to strengthen or turn that shortwave up while we have plenty of well below average climo air around (our period of opportunity) and also to set the stage for an inevitable cut after that modifies. 

Euro 12z today vs 12z yesterday

1.0” was the total last night here. 25ºF and quite blustery this morning. Max gust of 44.7mph already.

Haven’t had much snow driving opportunities this winter so took the 5 mile drive up Wopsy mountain middle of last night. There was at least a 5-6” pack up there from the last few days. 

19 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Looking over the tellies, this was likely the player in our current "winter" pattern.  As you can see the notable swing thru 8 helped to get winter closer for some of us, but as you can see, its likely to head twds COD or lower amp 1/2.  With that said, moving forward, the AO/PNA remaining much like they've been all winter, tells me that the NAO looking to once again head neg into next week, says much the same for us. 

NE may still get some late winter, but down here....close the friggin curtains already.  Northern/western had a few events but bye and large, I'll be glad to put this mess behind me. 

For all that are still sniffin out the next one....enjoy the chase.  

 

Winter has been getting closer to us since the latter part of February, as pretty much every cutting event to the lakes since then was forced to secondary south of New England. Not in time for us of course, but the interior NE and New England has been catching up. Even northern PA has to some degree too. The significant Nor-easter ongoing in Upstate New York and New England came together just a bit too late for us. 

We’re definitely in a different pattern regime now. Yea the MJO lowers in amplitude as it progresses into 1 and 2 and eventually the null phase by late month, but it’s literally off the chart right now.

It has to be a record or near record amplitude. After spending the whole winter failing to get into 8-1-2 during more “favorable” periods, the rubber band definitely snapped in that regard… also signaling the true death of the Nina and likely incoming Nino. In the more nearer term, it’s indicative of predominantly below average temperatures mid-late month for this part of the country (and a large part of the CONUS as a whole) as this progresses to 1-2. Problem is, obviously, mid-late March climo is a different ballgame than Feb-early March. I posted a few weeks ago how the loop back of the MJO at the time was going to push the pattern change to colder than average back.

From 2/22

Quote

 

I’m not a fan of the MJO backtrack loop back into 7, which serves to delay what I think is has to come at some point. We are seeing the fruits of the stratwarm event propagating into the troposphere with the developing blocking that eventually retrogrades into a nice -NAO block and overall blocking over the top. PNA remains solidly negative on all guidance, even on the farther ranges of the GFS extended and Euro weeklies. We’ll have to contend with some degree of western troughing and continued relentless - temp anomalies biased toward the western half of the country. I think the real change for us comes after the EPO and WPO reverse to negative… which guidance has been showing happening during the first week of March. Extended guidance then keeps those teleconnections there. If/when that sets up, the combo of that and the blocking over the top via the -NAO should put us into a decidedly colder and more favorable regime for snow chances despite the -PNA. I felt a progressive MJO pulse that continued into 8-1-2 without looping would have driven that kind of change much sooner. But I think we’re going to contend with it sooner or later. The hope is it’s soon enough to salvage some decent snow opportunities without it being too offensive to the spring crowd. 

In the meantime, we’re going to continue to be vulnerable to cutters and in and out cold shots as there is ample cold available on our side of the hemisphere now. Big beneficiaries of the developing -NAO blocking the next 10-15 days without the implied Pac help (EPO/WPO) would appear to be upstate NY and a good portion of interior New England.   Deterministic ensemble guidance is indicating that some of those folks are going to go a long way towards recouping a lot of their big time snow deficits

Not a perfect take by any means from 3 weeks out but I feel the main points ended up coming to fruition. So onward from now this week, we moderate back to average-above average the latter half of the week as we have a brief spike positive in the EPO. The next system at the end of the week is a definite cutter but it ushers in a pretty major cold shot for the time of the year. It’s of the caliber we need at this point that can set up the next system to be cold enough for a notable snow swath with the right track. We have SW energy to come out following the cutter and models are going to do a variety of things with it at this range. There’s been some nice hits here and there in that 3/21-23 period, with the 0z Euro and current 6z GFS as the most recent examples of what could happen in our subforum. I like the potential of that period, and we had a big storm on pretty much those dates back in 2018.. which has been referenced as a comparable March to this one with teleconnections/preceding stratwarm/MJO/etc.  

Either way, these are the 5 day avg temp anomalies centered on that D5-10 period:

6 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Out 27 was recorded as the ball dropped. Actually, out 27 was the ball drop.

The ball dropped at the final buzzer.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

It looked like your neck of the woods made a good case for probably should’ve been part of the winter weather advisory tonight. 

A quick half inch here and even some sporadic road cavage out of that band of squalls now pressing towards State College. Another 23.75 hours of those conditions and maybe it could’ve compared to this date 30 years ago haha. 

Some steady snow has developed back this way and 31ºF. Back to a coating on the grass, minus the sun this time. 

Judging by the mPing reports it looks like even the DC folks are going to see some flakes out of this quick band of precip that has made it across. It delivered a really short lived light coating on the grass here that’s already gone. 

Finally some respectable rates after all day to get something on the ground.

Crushed lol 

Patchy light snow here, temp has been a steady 33-34ºF. Have a light coating on some parts of the yard and mulch but nothing really measurable.

The front end of this system has been a mess from the get go, which really hurt the LSV’s chance at seeing measurable with this, since there were flakes in most areas this morning.  I’ll be surprised if CTP hangs on to the advisories south of I-80 with their afternoon updates but upstream PBZ radar is looking the best it has for the whole event, with a more solid area of precip associated with the weak surface low itself. So looks fairly probable central counties will get a period of steady precip early this evening with elevation variable snow totals. 

Looking over column thermals on the models at 850 and 925mb, there’s really good consensus on a snow column for pretty much anywhere in here for most/all of this Friday/Fri Night event. 850s stay well below zero anywhere in PA other than far SW PA and 925mb 0 line touches the PA/MD line briefly on some guidance. 700mb temps cool below -10ºC as the event evolves and the 700mb low tracks over PA, which could aid in ratios in the snow growth department. 

I know there’s obviously been very little to show in the LSV but the last 2-3 events have featured a colder than advertised column on onset that has allowed it to put some snow to the ground in parts of the Sus Valley that it wasn’t really in the forecast prior. This has a much better setup. Even though dying primary tracks thru PA, forced secondary development well southeast and flat trajectory of the primary ensure warm advection aloft likely won’t be a big issue and 850s hold below zero. 

Basically I think everyone will see snow falling, but I see a few potential issues as limiting accum factors. They’re somewhat tied together but surface temps, rates, and overall QPF. Models can print out mid 30s in the LSV at the surface or whatever and depending on timing they might be there before the event starts but if snow comes in at good enough rates you’re coming down to near or below freezing regardless, which will allow accums. I think the initial WAA stuff that comes in will be sufficient in that department, though there’s likely to be at least some elevational component. The other thing is QPF, that’s where the low track comes into play in this setup. I don’t think this dislodges the snow supporting snow column, but NW-SE primary track thru PA as it transfers to VA Beach/northern OBX will put the best QPF just to the north/northeast of the low track. Right now it would seem northern half or so of PA in best position for the highest QPF and the LSV/southern tier could be in a bit of a weak spot after the initial WAA precip. But that’s dependent on ultimate track and transfer timing. It seems like there will be some precip shield lingering overnight Friday somewhere in PA, where lighter rates will have an easier time accumulating. Could be another brief flare up of heavier precip (snow) in eastern PA as the coastal gets going well offshore as well, like the 12z Euro really suggested. That could help the Lanco folks. 

I’m not typically the snowmap poster on things past D5 or so but the 0z Euro was fun. 

Event #1 Fri night into Sat

Event #2 the following Tues/Wed

 Just a complete coastal detonation in eastern PA on this second system. I’ll actually buy that solution if @Voyagerhappens to be visiting Tamaqua next week. 

33ºF and moderate to heavy snow falling currently with a brisk NNE breeze, a rare combo in this winter. Precip arrival a couple hours ago didn’t mess around p-type wise and this has actually been mainly snow here. Accums starting in the grass and deck, too bad the back edge is coming. 

1 hour ago, CoralRed said:

Will we get this in North Central PA? We have all night to find out.

Certainly looking pretty good for verified warning totals pretty much where they have them placed looking at current radar trends with that heavy band. The few 511 cams and RWIS up on that US 6 corridor are already getting pounded by heavy snow. I’ll bet PA 144 and 44 between Renovo and Coudersport is quite an adventure right now. 

US 219/US 6

US 6 east of Coudersport

It might not matter for most in here but that Monday night event is intriguing, especially for the IPT folks and maybe atomix. Only the Euro really took the snow swath thru the heart C-PA up until the last few runs where other guidance is focusing northern third to half of PA after mainly being PA/NY border and north. Low tracks just south of PA but cold is marginal. Best QPF swath will run along a thin ribbon of F-gen forcing, wherever that may set up. Best bet is probably above I-80 and maybe dropping under that some in eastern PA but if the boundary trends south a bit this could get places like UNV and middle Sus between MDT and IPT more involved. 

Would be a quick hitter but could be some good rates (and respectable ratios) within that F-gen forcing induced band. Guidance is putting up some pretty significant snow totals. I dunno about widespread warning amounts in northern PA but most non Euro guidance in fact has just that. NAM and new GFS op have a swath of 10”+. Certainly a swath of advisories look to be a pretty good likelihood.