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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035

  1. 19 minutes ago, anotherman said:

    Getting harassed in the mid-Atlantic forum. For nothing.

    Some of them definitely get snippy pretty easily lol geesh. Probably don't realize at least half of the regular posters in here are in the part of the LSV that's pretty much an extension of the northern part of that subforum climo-wise. 

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  2. It looked like the Euro was heading for a somewhat further south heavy snow swath than it's 12z run, especially in eastern PA associated with the coastal low taking over. Looked like it was going to try to squeeze NE PA to some degree and stuff the heavy axis more toward the mason-dixon into northern MD and DC.  Western PA is still seeing 6+ amounts through 90 with it still snowing.  

    18z Euro ensemble mean is south of 12z some overall with the heavy swath. 

    1139353034_ScreenShot2021-01-28at8_13_23PM.thumb.png.abbf5e1d16c66a673abe2093ab3cd569.png

     

  3. 6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    It's been a busy afternoon. I am ready for my briefing. Who wants to do the honors?

    Der IKON is about 15-20 miles or so north of having a Wormleysburg bullseye of 24"+. I know that's all the briefing you need to hear haha. 

    Most guidance remains very solid on 6"+ for C-PA below I-80. GFS tracks the primary more closely to the Euro now, starting to minimize mixing in the LSV last couple runs. The Euro was better getting precip from the primary into PA, which is a key part of elevating the totals where the precip shield pivots as the lows transfer. 

     

  4. I think as long as the primary low and 850mb low don't go too far north and stays just below Pittsburgh's latitude while its transferring to the coastal.. this is actually a pretty good setup for a decent snow event for Pittsburgh and surrounding. The west-east trajectory of the primary and transfer plus the overall blocking pattern maintain the nose of that anomalous easterly 850mb fetch pretty far inland... which is a pretty good sign for maintaining a nice precip shield between the two lows as they transfer.  -4 standard deviations is quite significant. 

    ecmwfued-uwn--east_coast-96-C-850uwnstd_2021012812_whitecounty.thumb.png.32492c78a1e852352a78c4d58108507a.png

    ecmwf-deterministic-east-z850_speed-2191600.thumb.png.a0c10a169eeef98a8e7bac5b66db1d55.png

     

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  5. 2 minutes ago, canderson said:

    What's that jackpot over Ohio? What's going on out west? 

    It's the primary low. I've been saying over and over (and over) for the last couple days.. that low has to track close enough to put the precip shield over PA and transfer to pivot it over PA. The Euro had been ducking it and popping the coastal, narrowing the heavy snow swath. It's starting to finally put the precip shield from the primary solidly into PA like the GFS has been doing while transferring in time to keep things mostly snow. 

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  6. The 12z Euro doesn't stall the low over Delmarva like the 0z did, does so farther east. The biggest thing I'm seeing is it's finally starting to fill in the precip shield related to the primary low. And trajectory of that and the handoff is good to hang the shield over PA. The western PA gang will like this run, it keeps Pittsburgh mostly or all snow. 

    5 minutes ago, canderson said:

    This trend east is worrisome to me. Hope 0z halts it. 

    We have to remember this storm is coming on a straight west-east trajectory, not directly up from the Gulf. Typically, storms that slam Chicago with a foot plus of snow are ones that are cutting and giving us rain or p-type issues. Not with this block though.  This is still a great run for a big snowfall, pretty much everyone gets a warning snow and Sus Valley still gets clobbered. The big thing with this setup is where the coastal low stalls, if it's east or it doesn't stall for long we see this result. If it stalls over the Delmarva like last night's 0z run did, then the excessive totals become more in play (the 18-24+ type stuff). 

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  7. 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    MAG, I got the CMC and GEFS mixed up. Sorry about that!

    It's all good, just trying to keep comparisons straight. A lot of times shared info from the Mid-Atlantic thread is stuff that's being analyzed through the Mid-Atlantic lense. 

    Here's GEFS means 12z vs 0z, ramped up pretty good in our region and some of the northern MD folks. 6z means are fairly close to 12z. Again, starting to focus more than shift.. imo. 

    1485129312_ScreenShot2021-01-28at1_18_34PM.thumb.png.a9751a80c7d7523190bdc23ccdb52d4a.png

     

     

     

  8. 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    It shifted the higher probs significantly south. 

    Compared to what, the 0z run? 12z looks better in central PA probs wise. I see some solidifying of better probs but not a significant shift. Biggest difference I see is in western VA and eastern WV. 

    12z left, 0z right.

    342459698_ScreenShot2021-01-28at1_00_21PM.thumb.png.7ee4ffb41b6d3fb1171bec0d18f78fd3.png

     

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  9. 4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

    Wow...that's got to be some kind of hiccup, no? I mean, can something trend that bad in one run? Seriously, that's not what I hoped for when I said I hope the snow comes in after my flight out.

    I haven't really been watching what the UKMET's been doing, I just looked at it today since it was commented on being way south. But yea lol, that's not an outcome I'm anticipating out of this. 

  10. 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    It seemed for years that the Euro and Ukie were lock-step with each other, and if one deviated, the other followed immediately on the next run. The past year or two the Ukie has seemed more erratic - hoping that is the case here. But man, can you ever see the confluence draining out of NE on the Ukie....

    Yea I know that's been a unofficial indicator of the Euro in the past. I recall the UKMET being south on the lead-up to December's storm, or at least that they weren't showing that connection. I'm sure there's a couple comments on it buried many pages ago in this thread somewhere since this thread started at the beginning of December.

  11. 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    From what I could see, the only snow we get at all from the Ukie is the WAA. To Brian's (daxx) point earlier, to me it looks like the coastal forms and escapes due east. We get nothing from that.

    PSU is harping suppression issues once again. 

    Yea I'd say, it doesn't even snow in PA NE of Tamaqua on the UKMET. I also don't remember the UKMET - Euro connection being a thing with the December system. 

  12. GFS offers up a good representation of what I've been trying to explain about the handoff of the primary to the coastal. We gotta get into the thick of the initial precip wave of the primary, transfer the low and pivot the shield over us. If we do that, this is probably a really nice snowstorm for everyone in here. And even if it mixes southern tier, those folks are in the best position from the winding coastal low stalling. The Euro is starting to come around to this a bit better and the 0z last night was about perfect switching that primary 850mb low to the coast. It didn't dip the low as much. Euro ensembles at 6z this morning and 6z control run still seem to favor the southern tier and neighboring Mid-Atlantic and still seem weak with the precip shield in between the transfer. 

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  13. GFS barrels the primary 850mb low into PA creating enough of a southern push for the P-type issues before it reforms over the coastal and changes p-types back to snow. Nit picking where the random L's get plopped over the general surface low pressure area stalling off the coast aside, the placement of the precip shield is okay. And it's a long duration event like everything else has. The issue is thermals, and how it tracks the 850mb low... and looking back and comparing the whole last model cycle it's been really consistent with that. Suppose one could argue it thermally may be too warm if the deform precip has heavier consistent rates since 850/925 temps are somewhat marginal.

    But yea, GFS still in it's camp. The Euro has been arcing that 850mb low under us before it gets to PA and then reforming while the Canadian just barely gets it under us. Something's gonna give with this eventually. 

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  14. 35 minutes ago, canderson said:

    Tom Russell (CBS 21 out of Harrisburg) still says snow turns to mix Sunday night then a little wraparound. Downplaying. 

     

    9 minutes ago, anotherman said:


    I think he’s basing that forecast on some in-house model. It’s the only thing that makes sense.

    That's basically the watered down explanation on what the GFS has been doing, so I'd guess he's heavily weighing that particular model into his forecast. 

  15. 26 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    @MAG5035 

    What are you current thoughts before the 0z run Madness begins?

    I feel pretty good about the prospects of a decent winter storm in most of central and southern PA. The primary track and how the handoff to the coastal shakes out is going to be a key on if/where this becomes an excessive snowfall event. If we get the front end WAA precip sent into PA like the GFS and we track the low where we keep most of PA snow and that transfer to the Delmarva occurs, this will be a really big snowstorm for a big portion of the subforum as you would position the pivot over our region. If it dips like the Euro (and to some degree the Euro Ens) has been doing and has the coastal more quickly take over, this is a moderate event with a tighter area of heavy snows probably focused southern third of PA and Mid-Atl. Unless the GFS starts changing it's tune, we have to respect that option too (some southern PA mixing). If we are to play some devil's advocate here, the GFS spent a couple days in the mid range being about the only model having yesterday's event do what it eventually did.. while the Euro was trying to bury it under us. This is a different setup though with a boatload more potential. 

    I posted a couple pages back on the easterly 850 wind anomalies. The 12z Euro had monster anomalies and is def NESIS quality on guidance as a whole. December's storm had similar, although with the blocking in place this is probably going to be a longer duration coastal than that one. The pieces are there for this to be a big one. Who's going to get it is still up for grabs. 

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  16. You guys should get excited when I put these particular maps out. -4 to greater than -6 standard deviation 850mb U-wind anomaly (40-60kt eastern jet) aiming into the Mid-Atlantic and eventually southern/eastern PA. One of my big storm benchmarks. This def makes me somewhat suspect of some of the lower QPF between the transferring lows. 

    Hr 126

    ecmwfued-uwn--usne-126-C-850uwnstd_2021012712_whitecounty.thumb.png.477069e0d3b6e438fe466907d6221117.png

     

    Hr 144

    ecmwfued-uwn--usne-144-C-850uwnstd_2021012712_whitecounty.thumb.png.18a0c502587d740cb87c570e42173d43.png

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