MAG5035

12z Euro is a little bit better than 6z for the southern tier, otherwise still adamant on heaviest swath all the way between DC and Richmond. We shall see how it’s ensembles look. 

17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Euro went south, but the NAM, ICON & GFS say otherwise.

Still a long way from consensus.

 

 

 

The GFS definitely shifted south from its 0z position, as did the GEFS (probably an even bigger shift in its snow axis). Might not make much of a difference for most currently, but it def does for our northern folks and Voyager. It was probably a bit too far north the last couple runs, but hopefully we can get the Euro to shift back to meet in the middle. Was just looking at the RGEM and that’s pretty low too with it’s heavy snow, but has more of a widespread lighter snow swath.

6z vs 0z GFS op

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Both the Ukie and Euro are uhh...south. 

 

Euro ensembles are supporting the Euro op as well. Definitely a large difference between them and the rest of the suite this cycle for our region. But even the Canadian still had good snows across most of C-PA despite having the heaviest swath just south. WB never updated the UKMET to 0z for me but it sounded like that was even further south. Euro itself makes this nearly a non event north of the turnpike. In terms of the 0z cycle the Euro suite is a south outlier with the overall snow swath, and that’s including the NBM (National Model Blend). It’s not storm tracking without a model battle of course. 

0z GEFS vs Euro Ens

Here’s the 03z NBM (National model blend), and I don’t have 24 hr snowfall for that product so had to use the total snowfall. Outside of the Laurels, SW PA and the NW PA snow belt tomorrow’s event adds an inch or less east of the mountains to that total. Adds 2-3” in SW PA and probably 3-4” in the NW PA snow belt.  Honestly, that looks like the best compromise at the moment and pretty much in line with my earlier post with my early thoughts on accums. We shall see how things trend.. we’re still at D4 out from this event. 

11 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Goodbye, Georgia. 

Ouch lol, completes the sweep of all four bye week teams.

I like where the majority of our subforum sits for this event. Given the setup downstream there’s really only so much more this thing can trend north IMO. Our wave tomorrow, which blows up off the coast and ends up being the deep 50/50 low that forces the trajectory of the main system flat, additionally brings in deep reinforcing cold air to be in place preceding. Even the GFS keeps surface temps about 25-26ºF at best during the storm in the LSV, with the Euro maybe a degree or two colder. It’s no blizzard of 96 or anything, but certainly not a marginal setup temp wise. Temps on up the column are plenty cold as well. 

I’m not currently worried about any meaningful mixing in PA. DC perhaps, but not after they likely see their biggest snowfall of the last few years. Even there I think the column mostly holds. Worst case is if this trends towards an ICON type track is some mixed for a time along the M/D, but probably with sleet as the dominant mix type. 

Rough thoughts on accums right now would be most of PA sees 1-2” with solid advisory I-80 south and the axis of 6”+ residing somewhere between the M/D line and the turnpike with the bottom two tiers of counties in good position for potential warning snows. I think the ceiling east of the mountains is a 6-10” type event for the most part, with bigger totals in the Laurels and/or western MD Alleghenies. 

GEFS probs of 24 hr snowfall greater than 3”, 0z vs 18z. Big difference vs 18z although the 12z GEFS had similar swath placement to the current 0z run (but lesser probs). Stuff starting to dial in. 

GFS definitely coming in more amped and north than 18z, which brought a more significant snow swath further north. At the same time really tightens the gradient of the snow swath.

0z left, 18z right

Here’s the snow map (24hr kuchera)

Solution looks similar to that further north solution the UKMET had been pushing the last few runs. 

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah - there is a lot of football left in this game, I felt like this was a classic retribution game. Oregon barely (barely) won on their home field. I think if they played 10 times Ohio wins at least 7-8 times.

Might end up being the biggest blowout of the quarterfinals at this rate. 

Wagons back north on the 0z GFS for 1/6, decent snow swath I-80 south. 

You guys are getting good practice in for storm mode model play by play lol.

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, I had edited my post that Kuch would be high.  I saw a WB map but was not going to quote that.   It was 2-4" higher than this map. 

I’ll quote it, with 24 hour precip/snowfall

24hr Kuchera

24hr total QPF:

I’m not gonna go too crazy with mathing all the locations but MDT’s 8.2” at 0.5” is about a 16:1 ratio… which is somewhat better than January climo. The 12z Euro had a very cold column with this event, with the -8ºC 850 isotherm never getting above MDT and surface temps in the low to mid 20s area wide. Definitely cold enough for better than climo ratios. Just strictly interpreting what the model is outputting, I’m okay with those higher snowfall numbers. 

Whether thats the actual solution is obviously debatable at this range. It seems that guidance wants to bring more of this energy out front to make the main system in the 1/5 to 1/6 timeframe. We don’t have the 500mb alignment the whole way in place yet (western ridge asis off the Pac coast).. a stronger system that phases more energy in would likely cut. The GFS actually does cut the low but it’s weakening into what will be a decent antecedent cold airmass so result would probably be a majority frozen event for most here but mixing would be on the table. The Euro managed to get the low just underneath PA to a coastal transfer. If this is going to be the main system to get us here in C-PA, that’s probably the ideal solution.

30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

From the 0Z EC to the 12Z, the temp on the morning of 1/11 went from -8 at Harrisburg to 17. 

Euro has been a bit inconsistent, big difference between it and the GFS at 12z. Very little blocking in the NAO realm and also trying to hang troughing back into SW (Euro bias)

12z GFS v Euro

Euro ensembles are more in line with GFS/GEFS. Still weaker in the NAO realm like the Euro op but big difference in not really supporting the Euro op’s trough digging in the SW

12z GEFS v Euro EPS

 Pretty far out in range yet, but I’m leaning cold given the general consensus right now. Models have been targeting that 1/10 to 1/11 timeframe for a major arctic shot more often than not so far. 

Well GFS not a one hit wonder as the 0z has another run with a big storm near the 1/8 to 1/10 timeframe. Sort of redistributes energy away from any noteable in the 1/6-7 timeframe to make for the bigger storm a couple days later (but definitely faster than the 18z storm).  Range is obviously way out there, but got to start somewhere for a storm signal. Definite potential in this timeframe. Now to see if other stuff starts seeing it (0z Canadian is a no for now) 

Well if anything, that’s probably one of the best overall op runs of anything winter I’ve seen in a good while for at least another two hours. 

I posted this like 11 days ago, and I feel like most points are still relevant. 

On 12/17/2024 at 10:04 AM, MAG5035 said:

ENSO has yet to emerge into an actual La Niña, we are and have remained at ENSO neutral all year since the Nino faded last winter.

I have my doubts we ever actually end up with an official one (which needs 5 consecutive 3 month average periods of < -0.5ºC in 3.4). With the way the week to week has been going with ENSO temps so far this month, I would expect the OND average to be another neutral once this month wraps up. What may happen in the next month or so is SST’s dip into perhaps weak Nina territory, but I wouldn’t see it as having any major influence. Models really busted on this from early in the year when most were projecting a full blown strong Nina. 

I think one of our issues with the pattern alignment stem from generally having a +NAO/AO. What we do have right now that has been missing the last I don’t know how many winters is a positive PNA that has seemed to have some staying power. That has kept a mean trough on this side of the country which has kept us cold more often than not but the +NAO/AO has kept stuff from really digging. Another issue is we’ve also been working a phase 5 MJO pretty much the whole month so far, which is not really an ideal phase to be in. The fact we’ve been so cold has been a bit of a minor miracle IMO. Without that western ridge, we likely would have been roasting. Following another cold shot coming this weekend, it does appear that the week between Christmas and New Year’s is likely to be an anomalously warm one as the EPO is slated to go positive and will likely overwhelm the CONUS with warmer air despite the continued ridging in the west (+PNA). With the MJO, Nina’s favor phases 4-6…so that’s where I feel the ENSO neutral conditions could be a good thing in the longer run as the MJO could actually be allowed to rotate into the more favorable phases at some magnitude and not stall in the bad ones. Models are already putting the MJO in Phase 7 by the end of the month. A 7-8-1 run would have a decent chance of delivering a better storm pattern for us as well. So I think we’re going to set up for a good period at some point when we get into next month, especially if we can keep the +PNA. 

So fast forwarding to today, we’re kind of where I thought we would be during this timeframe (in a warm-up). The past 30 day period has been cold more often than not with solid - anomalies in most of PA, so a break in the cold was due. Yes it’s going to rain, probably two liquid events between now and New Years.. which isn’t necessarily a bad thing in terms of the lingering drought conditions in a large portion of PA and the Northeast as a whole. It’s probably gonna be warm enough the next couple days that some stations technically may erase the negative departures for Dec (especially western PA stations) Then New Year’s Day onward we’re right back into seasonably cold weather and eventually it appears.. more anomalous cold. 

I get all the negative “it’s always two weeks+ away” sentiment to a degree. I think there’s a lot of PTSD from last year’s chasing the “biblical” 500mb looks on the longer range/weeklies at 2-4 weeks. But A, this winter is not last winter (or the one before that) and B this colder period is right on the doorstep. My biggest question for January was could we keep the western ridging (+PNA) as a persistent feature in the overall pattern and for at least the first 15 days of the month.. the answer to that appears to be yes as ensembles develop a solidly +PNA during the first week of Jan. This goes along with across the board good teleconnections with -NAO/AO and generally +EPO/WPO developing. MJO as well is looking better with modeling getting it more into 8 and 1. PNA is a big one for me though, we’ve had the other teleconnections looking good at various points the last couple winters but we were resorted to watching the Mammoth Mtn web cams while they got 6-10 feet every few days because of a monster western US trough, which naturally would imply some form of eastern US ridging in response. NOT the case so far this year. For example Denver is averaging +9ºF and Phoenix +7ºF for December (no doubt because @Voyager moved back to PA haha) 

Anyways we’ll have to see what kind of storms we can get out of this upcoming pattern, which is ultimately what puts the white gold on the ground. Hasn’t been much signs of an overly active southern stream, so timely northern stream waves and amplified pattern are probably going to be key first half of Jan. Models have been already very persistent on that 1/6 to 1/8 period for some kind of a bigger system. GFS has looked good at times, Euro has progged it as more of a mix. Way too far out to determine those details for sure. Both models have occasionally had legitimately serious cold behind that progged system as well and that’s going to need to be watched too as pattern alignment would be supportive of major arctic shots into the eastern US. To sum it up there’s no reason one can’t be positive about winter prospects getting into January.

Got down to 6ºF here last night, which already exceeds the coldest temp I had from all of last winter (7ºF). Pretty impressive rad cooling night despite just some patchy snow around. I’m sure a deeper snowpack would’ve easily made it a below zero night. 

New CTP grids for tomorrow.

Meso models have been showing better development of WAA snows ahead of the approaching primary clipper low tomorrow morning in the central and northern tier counties. Seems quite close to an advisory event being advertised on the 18z 3k NAM, RGEM, and esp 18z HRRR from CTP’s I-80 corridor north (perhaps down to KAOO on the 99 corridor). So wouldn’t be surprised to see some headlines up later this eve.  It’s a pretty decent low as far as clippers go but this fades and hands off to secondary development off the coast, which leads to some questions of how much precip translates over into the Sus Valley, which seems to be a weak spot between the primary and secondary handoff in the progged alignment. Also an inverted trough element to this as well which could focus a more narrow band of snowfall somewhere in eastern PA later Friday (likely aligned NW-SE north and east of MDT).

PSU game Saturday def looks cold, though I’m not really buying the SMU not being able to handle the cold angle. I think Penn State should handle its business but not because it’s too cold for SMU to handle. Noon kickoff will be “warmest” time of the day with UNV temps progged around the mid 20s, Winds are brisk but not insane (gusts to 25). Might be some lingering snow showers, especially in the morning. If this were a night game I could see temps being more of a factor since Sat night will likely go well into the teens. The one thing that could be an issue for fans is whatever happens tomorrow. 1-2” is in the grids now for State College. They get the high end of that or some kind of overachieving event that’s a bit more and that could make for some parking issues in the grass lots. 

12 hours ago, mitchnick said:

My concern is precip. Freebie maps look dry during the colder weeks.

D@mn STJ is Mia thanks to Niña. Also, we need the trough axis to be more conducive for passing short waves under us versus what we've had and then redevelop with Atlantic moisture, or it's dry when cold.

Hate to sound picky, but it has been 4 years since a 6"+ snow storm.  

ENSO has yet to emerge into an actual La Niña, we are and have remained at ENSO neutral all year since the Nino faded last winter.

I have my doubts we ever actually end up with an official one (which needs 5 consecutive 3 month average periods of < -0.5ºC in 3.4). With the way the week to week has been going with ENSO temps so far this month, I would expect the OND average to be another neutral once this month wraps up. What may happen in the next month or so is SST’s dip into perhaps weak Nina territory, but I wouldn’t see it as having any major influence. Models really busted on this from early in the year when most were projecting a full blown strong Nina. 

I think one of our issues with the pattern alignment stem from generally having a +NAO/AO. What we do have right now that has been missing the last I don’t know how many winters is a positive PNA that has seemed to have some staying power. That has kept a mean trough on this side of the country which has kept us cold more often than not but the +NAO/AO has kept stuff from really digging. Another issue is we’ve also been working a phase 5 MJO pretty much the whole month so far, which is not really an ideal phase to be in. The fact we’ve been so cold has been a bit of a minor miracle IMO. Without that western ridge, we likely would have been roasting. Following another cold shot coming this weekend, it does appear that the week between Christmas and New Year’s is likely to be an anomalously warm one as the EPO is slated to go positive and will likely overwhelm the CONUS with warmer air despite the continued ridging in the west (+PNA). With the MJO, Nina’s favor phases 4-6…so that’s where I feel the ENSO neutral conditions could be a good thing in the longer run as the MJO could actually be allowed to rotate into the more favorable phases at some magnitude and not stall in the bad ones. Models are already putting the MJO in Phase 7 by the end of the month. A 7-8-1 run would have a decent chance of delivering a better storm pattern for us as well. So I think we’re going to set up for a good period at some point when we get into next month, especially if we can keep the +PNA. 

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

ALEET !

For some reason during my lunch break, I decided to take another look at CTP’s daily climate summary. Much to my surprise, they revised it this morning!

MDT is officially on the board with .8 of snow yesterday.

 

I just thought maybe it was a case of they only report 12/24hr snowfall at 7pm/am (0/12z). Original forum post this morning with the MDT climo report was issued at 220am where the “revised” one was issued 713am. 

At any rate here’s this, it seems most CTP stations saw something measurable yesterday. 

2.4” was my final tally here, most of which is still on the ground currently as we’re socked in fog and it’s only 34ºF. 

Working on 2” here with a nice steady snow falling and 30°F. First snow pic of the season

Been transitioning through pingers with snow mixing in now after the freezing rain start as the column cools. It was just enough to glaze the driveway and back street. 31/28ºF

Update, precip started here and it’s currently straight freezing rain. 

31/26ºF here with the precip on the doorstep. It’ll be interesting to see if this overachieves in the snow department here today. Models have been progging the column temps to fall a couple degrees below freezing at 925 and 850 upon precip onset. I’m thinking there will be a period of snow for a bigger portion of the LSV than what is being broadcast for advisories. Whether that escalates into an actual advisory event in Harrisburg/York/Lancaster is debatable but it’s certainly possible. I’ve liked the HRRR’s more frozen vs rain (colder column after onset and during first part of the event) over the 3k NAM’s more widespread freezing/mixed precip during its wintry precip portion of the event. We’ll see how that goes today. 

I think primary freezing rain threat resides in the Laurel Ridges, however I will say given how cold it has been that rain and marginal temps at or a degree or two above freezing may freeze up some surfaces like non-paved driveways and other untreated cold surfaces. It was 12ºF for a low here Saturday morning and was down as far as 21ºF last night before clouds moved in a brought temps up overnight. Ground is frozen solid. 

Temps have rocketed to 57ºF here today (58ºF at one point). Had a tad over an inch of rain fall yesterday (1.05”). 

Some models are coming back around to the rain to snow scenario over a bit larger of an area of C-PA later tomorrow. Best handling ones are likely gonna be the high res stuff like the 3k NAM. I think most of us could see some kind of changeover but this is likely to be yet another elevationally driven event in terms of accumulations. There’s a sharp temp drop progged behind the frontal passage but probably not sharp enough in lower elevations to get meaningful accums. The big story with this event is likely to be the much needed rainfall. SW PA and WV has seen some meaningful improvements on the drought monitor the last couple weeks and it appears that tomorrow’s system is going to really help the more significant drought conditions in eastern PA and the megalopolis (and surrounding) region as a whole.

1 hour ago, WmsptWx said:

Is TCC an Altoid? I think we only have two posters here who claim anything close to Toontown... 

 

And I don't shoot people. 

 

That just leaves one... Bellwoodian lol.

Lol I actually have lived in Altoona for the last several years now. 

I haven’t really seen a reliable answer yet on which McDonald’s it was. I’m a two minute walk from one of them. The most likely one that is close to the bus station downtown is a couple miles away from here.