MAG5035

8 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

Wow surprised you're still holding on and impressive totals! Seems like some rain mixing in with some lighter rates here now. But that was a fun one. Heavier snow this morning than I saw anytime on Saturday. Eyeballing about 3" imby

Yea this is a really unique setup, CTP had noted a lot of mixing at the office there in State College. It’s almost like a valley to valley difference.  I briefly had mixing when I made that report at 915am, figured that was going to be it. Then it went back to snow and it resumed piling up. The CC product is starting to close in now, so it won’t be long. I actually am just starting to hear some pings. 

2 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

Fun AFD from CTP this morning 

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Yesterday`s signal for a front end snow thump has materialized
with areas from the Laurels through the WC and C Mountains
having seen a quick 2 to 5 inch accumulation this morning.
Dramatic snowfall rates and reflectivities have accompanied
the heavy snow, with some of the largest aggregates I`ve seen
occasionally tripping DP hydrometeor hail classifiction.

The warm air is on the move and messy mix to to sleet and rain
is occurring from south to north, slowest over the Laurel
Highlands and WC Mountains. Here at Innovation Park southeast of
campus, we have repeatedly gone from heavy snow to mixed sleet
and rain and back again several times. Strong forcing will keep
this back and forth transition going through midday, with
additional coatings of high SLR slush across the central and
south. Best additional snow accumulations will be north of I-80
with again a general 2 to 5 inches expected before the warm air
wins by late afternoon.

9:15 AM: 4.3 inches measured at Penn State Altoona and a 5.4"
from our Glencoe observer from this morning`s burst of heavy
snowfall. Transition to sleet and rain occurring central and
south with minimal additional snow accumulations south of I-80,
but we`ll see similar 2 to 4 inch amounts up to parts of McKean
and Potter through the midday hours. No additional updates at
this time.

805 AM: Doubled snow amounts into the central mountains
as 1.5-2" per hour rates are lifting across the area. KCCX
WSR-88D sampling of aggregates bumped hydrometeor classification
into hail, a first that I`ve seen. In the bizarre category, a
large flock of starlings simultaneously flew over our office at
Innovation Park (between State College and UNV). Very possible
that this large biological target was being sampled along with
the heavy snow. A general 2 to 5" range is now being mentioned
for the Winter Weather Advisory, which we`ve expanded to include
Elk, Cameron, Potter, McKean and Clinton Counties

That 4.3” report at 915am was from me, and I reported 6” to them when i reached it a little while ago. That is a pretty wild disco with the CCX radar, likely a result of the record anomalous moisture influx from the Gulf. 

What a presentation on satellite

Between 6.5-7” now, heavy rates. 32/32ºF

5 minutes ago, dj3 said:

My in laws in Johnstown are saying they have around 7 inches new. Sounds like this was pretty unexpected up that way? Either way nice to see some central PA brethren cash in. Slushy mess down in Pittsburgh early this AM but been all rain since 8 or so.

 

A couple inches were expected even up that way but definitely nothing like this. The Cresson Summit and Gallitzen 511 cameras look nuts right now. 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's awesome! Averaging 1.5"/hour rates for 4 consecutive hours - great stuff right there. 

This is easily the best snowstorm I’ve ever seen come from a straight cutter. Blue Knob Ski Resort claims a foot has fallen up there this morning.

At 6”, with heavy snow and 32/32ºF. I think there’s been some compacting too with the marginal temps. This event started around 630am here, what a beat down. 

Roads have been a mess, haven’t heard too many bad accidents on the scanner but lots of stuck cars. 

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I basically paid no attention to this as to snow but did see some models, I think the RGEM was one, showing several inches of snow to my west.   

Some of the high res models were showing 10”+ on the top of the Allegheny front just west of here yesterday, which I thought was way over done. But maybe not given how hard it’s been snowing down here. 

A look at 511pa cams in the Laurels still shows mostly snow on the cams in Somerset Co all the way down to Meyersdale and the cam on the Somerset/Westmoreland line. Mixing or rain on those cams are usually a sign of such things here soon, so probably have some time yet here. I’m at about 5” now so it’s becoming very likely I’m going to verify a warning out of this. 

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just saw on the MA that parts of Frederick county MD have 1-2" of snow now and route 81 is closed?  Also schools closing or closed.   This is a Blizz type of cutter. 

It’s funny how all this works after Saturday’s storm haha. I wonder if the high pressure to the north was underestimated, even with the HRRR. 

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

You may need the National Guard for the enxt one which is looking slightly colder. 

The next one doesn’t have much of a high progged to the north like this one actually does. 1035ish N of Maine vs the very deep low approaching. If you guys flipped over to snow I wonder if the rest of the Sus Valley can get a period of snow as the heavier precip moves up into there. 

Should do cutters like this more often lol.

Looks like a full transition back to snow here for the time being. Easterly breeze starting to pick up a little bit. 

Starting to ping, I’m at 3.8”. Right around 32ºF

And the overnight Euro looked rather solid for the 16th. It has a more pronounced and much better placed western ridge… pretty much where you’d want to see it for C-PA. The GFS this morning is getting better too (a little west with the ridge axis).

If we’re going to see a legit East Coast snow storm (something perhaps of the KU variety), that’s going to be a feature to watch if we start seeing more solutions like the Euro showed overnight. This is the period where we start to match up teleconnections… PNA to neutral or somewhat positive, NAO/AO/EPO negative, WPO diving negative. 

I’m at 3” now. I measured 1.3” 30 minutes ago. Big loud flakes falling now. 

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some progs suggest you may need a WSW for the next cutter. 

I might need one for this one, lol. 

Just woke up, and there’s already 1.5” of new snow on the ground and it’s snowing every bit as hard as it was Saturday. Wow. 
 

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You may have a legit shot for the event on the 16 or 17, but I  put my odds of seeing a 4"+ event (with or without a mix or change to rain) at 20% tops. I can see the writing on the wall based on prior years of following winter wx in the area, 1972-present. January is looking like a whole lot of threats and not a lot of substantial hits, if any; how I hope I'm wrong. February may be different, but it's too early to say.

We’ll see, there’s a lot of lead time yet for that system to see where the large scale features end up being positioned. That system should have plenty of cold air to work with, so if it can stay under PA and along the coast there is a better chance for more frozen precip to be favored. But yea, it’s definitely a bummer to mostly waste a really active period this coming week with tomorrow and then likely on Saturday. 

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like MU might be punting the next 3 storms:

(1/2) Phew! In terms of wild weather, the next 7-10 days are shaping up to be downright crazy! There may not be much snow in the I-95 corridor, northern MD, or southeastern PA, but several "big storms" should impact the region with high winds & heavy rain..

(2/2) Don't put much stock in the exact path of the 12th-14th or 16th-18th systems yet, but a persistent storm track from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into SE Canada seems to be emerging & could certainly come to fruition. Expect talk of #flooding & high winds to be common.

I think the event being progged around the 16th has a decent shot of being something in the snow dept. The weekend system looks a lot like this one coming tomorrow, cutting to the lower lakes… with maybe some front end. That’s going to be the first system that starts bringing actual cold towards the east in its wake. Probably the coldest of the season to date, which isn’t really saying much. But that deep low hits the high latitude blocking and the 16th system coming fast in its wake is going to get forced under more. The difference with that system is the developing negative EPO/WPO regime AND a neutralizing PNA as there’s finally a bit of ridging that moves to the west coast. That’s going to push some of that arctic cold that originally dumps central/west this week to the east and theoretically.. the storm boundary.

Only caveat I see in the early going is that western ridge axis as progged would be a bit too far west for what we normally would want to see. But there’s at least some semblance of it and combined with the -NAO/AO and -EPO/WPO will eventually push the cold east. Next week looks like it could be a legit below average week temp wise… especially after whatever that 16th system does. 

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not going to be going this weekend, but my wife and I are planning on seeing a Bills game in Orchard Park this coming fall. We want to experience Bills Mafia before they move into their new stadium. Likely planning on going in September or October before things start cranking off the lakes.   

It was awesome seeing all of the Terrible Towels in Nashville yesterday! Steelers fans in full force who made the drive down to root on the Titans. 

I’ve been to Nashville several times but that’d be a fun place to go to an NFL game. And I think Nashville is also planning to eventually a build a new stadium further outside of downtown. I think it’s great as is, where you can walk from all the bars and such downtown across the bridge to the stadium. I haven’t been to a Steelers game since the 2011 AFC Championship game.. it was about 10ºF at kickoff for that one. 

39 minutes ago, canderson said:

Great write up @MAG5035! Did you see Sterling said this?

The evening sounding on Tuesday at IAD could break observed wind
records at 925mb, 850mb, and 700mb.

That’s pretty wild, to go along with that they also mentioned record high integrated water vapor transport (vs climo) sourced from the Gulf and Atlantic. Might as well call that the east coast version of an atmospheric river. 

They did further on the wind threat, their reasoning highlighted below is primarily why I’m pumping the brakes some on excessive winds at the surface in the Sus Valley. If there in fact a squall line that develops with the front to our south, it’ll have to be watched to see if it gets into the southern LSV. By the way, great discos by LWX and CTP this morning. 

LWX

Quote

The main issue is going to be whether all of this wind mixes down to
the surface. Southerly wind events struggle to do this as warm air
aloft moving over a cooler surface airmass results in a stable
environment. However, given the strength and speed of this system,
strong pressure falls, and high precip rates, some of this wind
should mix down. The current thinking is winds gust to 40-50mph
along and east of I-95, with higher gusts possible along the
immediate Western Shore. A High Wind Watch has been issued for St.
Mary`s County, and this could be expanded north to other Western
Shore counties. Peak wind gusts occur between 4PM to 10PM Tuesday.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Allegheny Front on Tuesday
morning as winds ahead of the surface low gusts to 50mph.

Severe: While the environment is expected to remain stable, there
could be a narrow line of convection from Fredericksburg area into
southern MD that could mix down those wind gusts in excess of 60mph.

My latest thoughts on tomorrow’s triple threat. 

Still trying to gauge the wind threat in the Sus Valley. CTP has a nice write up in their AFD this morning laying out their thoughts on it and the system as a whole. I personally think the threat of big winds (gusts in excess of 50-55mph) are going to be confined in that few hour period prior to and during the frontal passage.. where the Sus Valley may get into the warm sector and mix better gusts down. Don’t get me wrong it’ll be windy, but I dunno about excessive winds. That’s a different story in the coastal plain region and along the coastline. They did issue high wind watches in the Laurels, where the elevations will poke into some of that crazy low level jet. PIT also issued them on their side of the Laurel’s.. as this is one of those less common setups where downsloping winds are off the Pittsburgh facing front of the Alleghenies with the SE flow prior to FROPA. As for the behind the system I’m not super impressed with the winds other than the typical 30-40 gusts. We don’t really get a rapid pressure rise behind the front with this. 

Moving on, the biggest threat by far is becoming the flood threat, which I think was already the biggest potential issue at hand with this system here. MARFC flood products today really show the vulnerability with the widespread 1.5”-3” of QPF expected.

Additionally with the QPF forecasts.. a quick study of the waterways on MARFC’s headwater guidance show moderate flood stage pretty easily attainable across the board in the Sus Valley and Juniata basin waterways. 6 hr and 12hr numbers don’t differ very much either. On top of that, there’s roughly about 0.5-1.0” locked up in the snow on the ground as of this morning over a big part of C-PA. There’s definitely going to be issues that are likely going to be a more than the standard small streams/poor drainage variety with all that. 

And lastly, which will be firstly in terms of weather impacts.. we have the front end snow potential deeper in central PA, where AOO-UNV up into the north-central may well see advisory amounts in the morning/early afternoon before it changes to rain. This could in fact come down nearly as hard as it did on Saturday, which would make a mess of things on the roads first half of the day. Then all the rain on top, which could still be at least 1-1.5” if 0.5” gets put down as snow/mix. 

16 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

If the cold pushes start to keep deflecting away from the EC as we get later in January, we may really be talking PTSD.    NAO's, MJO's, we can talk them all up but we need real cold in NY and South Canada prior to moisture entering the area. 

 

@Itstrainingtime  @sauss06 and others, congrats to the Steel.   Could argue they are playing the best NFL football in PA right now. 

Any snow weenie Steeler fans up for a snow chase/ playoff game could get a two for 1 special in Orchard Park this Sunday.

58 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Thoughts on this? 

Wxrisk.com updated their profile picture.

  · 

 

TUESDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING ARE GONNA SUCK.... MAX WINDS WILL GUST

FROM 60 - 75MPH !!! Que up the Creedence Clearwater Revival.... 1-4 inches of rain...

Seriously folks... recall the summer Drought? well force of nature are making up for it. Frankly he model data here is kind of freaking me the hell out !! Expect significant power outages and if the power outage is a widespread the loss of power could be prolonged in some areas. Maybe it won't be but you know it is winter and it does get really cold at night without power

Locations that typically flood and have flooded in the past few weeks will definitely flood again and that's especially true in New England and New York State. areas in New York Pennsylvania New England which got significant snowfall on Saturday. Rapid temperature rise on howling South winds Tuesday afternoon and evening will cause all that snow to melt very quickly.

8 hours ago, canderson said:

There will be 80-90 mph winds Tuesday night at the 850mb - if we get heavy rain they could get mixed down. I think it’s going to be very bad for someone in this forum. 

The flood threat’s there for sure, with modeling and ensembles across the board indicative of 1.5-2+” of QPF across all of C-PA and the Sus valley. Sus Valley and SE PA would be the primary focus area for flooding in PA, where recent antecedent conditions are already fairly wet and temps will have the biggest surge ahead of the frontal passage and expedite melting of whatever snow has fallen to go with the significant rain. York/Lancaster look to be in WPC’s “slight risk”  for excessive rainfall while about the eastern half or so of PA is in the “marginal”.

Wind is another story. Despite the extremely impressive low level southerly jet, cold/cool air damming and steady moderate/heavy rain is likely going to provide a stable boundary layer most everywhere east of the Laurels for at least a good portion of the pre frontal passage portion of the event. Those screaming winds won’t mix down with that. I think for the Sus valley any wind issues that become more than the typical “breezy”variety (maybe some 30-35 gusts) is going to heavily depend on busting into the warm sector.  That provides the means to mix higher winds to the ground and a line of showers/storms associated with FROPA would definitely have the potential to bring damaging winds. CTP talked winds in their AFD and only really discussed potential high wind watch for the Laurel’s for now.. where elevation (higher elevations near the 925mb layer) would catch the higher gusts from the southerly jet. Their confidence on 50kt gusts to necessitate a high wind warning in C-PA is low right now. The really serious winds are more likely along the coastal plain and coastal areas up the eastern seaboard from the Mid-Atlantic up into New England. Modeled winds on the backside of the system aren’t super impressive, def breezy (30-45 gusts)  but not sure about headline worthy.. at least in terms of the high wind warning variety. 

Lastly there is a winter weather impact aspect to this too. Not for the majority of the sub-forum demographic, but in the interior counties of central PA. Most guidance has been pretty firm on a period of accumulating snow/sleet in the AOO/UNV/north central PA realm, turning to a mix/ZR and then rain. NAM was warmer aloft but still has a several hour period of mixed precip (more ZR dominant). Either way, I expect advisories to be needed for the aforementioned portion of C-PA. 

CTP disco

Quote

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The focus for the next few days will be on a potent southern
stream trough lifting out of the Southern Plains. All medium
range guidance tracks this feature and the associated deepening
surface low west of PA through the Grt Lks Tuesday PM into
Wednesday. A blocking high over New England may supply enough
cold air for an initial wintry mix. However, max wet bulb temps
aloft rise well above 0C by Tuesday evening, as an anomalous
(+4SD) southerly low level jet pivots through the state.

A deep plume of GOMEX moisture overrunning the retreating low
level stable airmass should result in a moderate to heavy
rainfall, with an accompanying flood risk. Latest ensemble prob
charts indicate the eastern half of the forecast area will be
most susceptible with amounts in excess of 2 inches possible,
combined with melting snow. MMEFS (NAEFS and GEFS) shows
numerous river points across the eastern part of the forecast
area with 30-70% prob of reaching minor flood stages by Wed AM.
The most vulnerable locations will be the Lower Susquehanna
Mainstem and tributaries (i.e. Conodoguinet Creek, Swatara
Creek, and Sherman Creek).

Strong, gusty winds will be a concern for parts of Central PA
on Tuesday into Wednesday as the surface low bombs out across
the Great Lakes. Gradient winds ahead of the approaching low
will produce strong southeasterly winds across the higher
elevations in the Laurels and northern mountains. Gusty winds
are also possible across southeast PA where guidance indicates
the potential of breaking into the warm sector ahead of an
approaching occluded front. Winds will shift around to westerly
during the day on Wednesday as the low passes to the north.
Current EPS guidance shows a 60% chance of exceeding advisory
criteria across the aforementioned zones (everywhere except the
central ridge/valley region). We may need a high wind watch for
the Laurels or northern tier, but consensus is to let this slide
until we have more confidence in at least high-end advy gusts.
We`re not quite to 50% confidence on anyone in Central PA
getting 50KT gusts.

10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Speaking of reported totals, do you have any way to contact CTP to ask them about MDT’s snow total today? 

I don’t have any special back channels to talk to any CTP mets unfortunately, other than just giving them a call. However, overnight CTP put a PNS out acknowledging the end of the snow drought at Harrisburg International and put out a snow total of 3.3” for yesterday from them. I’m sure it just came down to reporting times for their obs/climo like MGorse said but I’d like to think you broke into the airport property and took your own measurement lol. 

Quote

000 NOUS41 KCTP 070745 PNSCTP PAZ057-071145- Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 245 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2024 ...THE SNOW DROUGHT AT HARRISBURG IS OVER... Harrisburg International Airport received 3.3 inches of snowfall yesterday, Jan 6th, 2024. It has been 345 days since the last measurable snowfall occurred at the Harrisburg observing site. The last snowfall of more than a trace was back on Jan 25th, 2023. This has been the longest string of consecutive days without measurable snowfall in Harrisburg. Continuous weather observations have been recorded since 1888 in Harrisburg.

Been pretty much done with the heavier stuff back this way for the last couple hours, but have transitioned to freezing drizzle and some occasional pingers. Still just a hair under 28ºF. 6.2” was my reported total snowfall.