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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035

  1. 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

    What’s this week ahead looking like? Hearing a bunch of threats but not sure what days specifically.

    Possibly some kind of a light event Tuesday, with some light snow streaking across PA (perhaps light mix southern tier depending on the model). It seems the bigger trouble brewing will be late week in the Thur/Fri timeframe. This is looking like a drawn out warm advection type event at first with an eventual wave(s) of low pressure coming up towards PA. My concern with this setup is given the gradient pattern and the arctic air nearby is it looks like quite a favorable setup for having a significant icing swath. Not necessarily here, but somewhere. 18z GFS for instance mainly snow with this while the afternoon Euro run had alot of ice into PA. Those details are impossible to nail down at this point, but that Thur-Fri timeframe looks to be where the next more significant precip event materializes. 

    Also the question of cold air, as the big time arctic air is on the playing field but trying to figure out how much eventually releases into the eastern US. Models have literally been all over the temperature spectrum, from the mixing events and temps near somewhat above freezing at times to throwing the whole polar vortex over the Great Lakes/NE and what would likely be record cold. Still going to be pretty cold immediately behind tomorrow's system but the significant arctic cold that was looking to happen earlier this coming week now looks to hold off to perhaps D6-7 or so. Guidance is having alot of trouble handling location of the gradient/storm track and the longwave pattern in general.

  2. Lol, you guys have been reading the Mid-Atlantic thread haven't you?

    I know this isn't looking as great as it was but it still should be a general advisory type event for the LSV. The NAM and company had been the guidance in particular leading the way with that widespread 6"+ and we should all know the NAM can giveth.. but it most certainly can taketh away. Most other guidance has generally been less of a widespread 6"+ threat and more of a debate of how expansive the precip extent is going to be. I thought the coastal low had a chance to run up right on the coastline but it's looking like it will track offshore some, pulling the axis of best snowfall associated with that back southeast some. Basically back to my original SE of I-81 thinking with the best accums. 

    Jury still somewhat out on that NW extent of the precip shield between blossoming coastal and also the area of precip back out over MO/IL/etc. I like a general T-2" NW of I-81 covering back to the I-99 (AOO,UNV,IPT) corridor and perhaps even western PA as we certainly can't rule out a period of mostly light snow anywhere in those areas. Obviously the best chance of 2" or perhaps a bit more is closer to I-81 or perhaps some southern Laurels locations. 2-3" (advisory event) for places like MDT and more of a 3-5" York/Lancaster with an outside chance at some scattered higher amounts near the MD border.. but mostly this is looking to top out at 4-5" by the looks of it.    

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  3. Here was last night's 0z HREF 24hr snowfall, which is short range ensemble guidance that NWS factors pretty heavily into their snow maps, and you can see why CTP opted for watches in Adams, York, Lancaster. Thought this was the 12z run but good thing I double checked bc it hasn't run 12z yet on the SPC site. Would imagine whatever the 12z shows will factor into whether they opt for warnings in the watch area. 

    1949076007_ScreenShot2021-02-06at11_39_46AM.thumb.png.a252a4718e422881e118c69ff559eeae.png

    Considering the full suite of guidance, they're pretty locked down on the general location of the best swath of snow but there does still seem to be quite a divide in guidance though when it comes to amounts of said swath . Looking at the 12z GFS and GEFS, it's barely an advisory event in the watch counties and a general 1-2 in the rest of the Sus Valley, RGEM same way although that particular model has generally been SE the whole time on the lead up. 06z Euro/EPS supports Sus Valley wide advisory event but borderline at best on upgrading the watches to warnings. It's the short range guidance like the NAM/SREF/HREF that have been robust on warning totals and the 09z SREFs are most robust on NW extent with solid advisory amounts all the way back past I-99. So all things considered, I think what CTP currently has out snow-map wise is pretty good representation right now with location of the swath of best snows and perhaps tempered expectations on the top end accumulation wise. 

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  4. 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

    It's def a primed LSV target with areas like southern half of York to LanCo as the benefactors this go around. I think 3-6" with local to 8" is very doable for those spots. Further NW will be lacking the juice unlike the counties I mentioned, but they can make up for it with lift and better ratios. I think advisory level snowfall is a given at the very least. 
     

    I said earlier I'd consider it a win if I saw 1-2" back this way and that it just had to suck me back in haha. I'm thinking the central counties' (NW of I-81) chance at seeing anything notable hinges on any interaction between the two shortwaves that can generate an area of snowfall further back.. something to the tune of what the 18z GFS tried to do. 

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  5. Thermal gradient could argue for that closer surface low track ala the NAM.. which has the low into the southern Delmarva vs the GFS/EURO staying notably off the coast. Not like we're stuffing this system down with a significant arctic air intrusion that can push the baroclinic zone offshore.  (actual cold air comes in behind this sytem).  DC's coming off a day where it's 50ish tomorrow and temps during the event aren't overly cold even in the LSV.

    Ugh, this system just had to suck me back in lol. 

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  6. Measured 0.5" of new snow at daybreak, which easily melted off non-snow surfaces this morning.

    Just did some measuring to get the state of the snowpack in the yard. Mostly ranges 6-9" with an area of shallow snow <3" on the one corner and an area of 14-17" on the downwind side of the house and between the house and the shed. Before the snowpack softened yesterday, that last 3.5" Tuesday evening was windblown and the wind continued Wednesday with some significant blowing and drifting. 

  7. The Euro's take:

    ecmwf-deterministic-pennsylvania-snow_24hr_kuchera-2731600.thumb.png.e9cf929c62b8f73ee2f3d54643d773b3.png

    Not focused like the NAM with the big amounts but a broader precip shield. Euro and esp GFS illustrate what I was suggesting in last night's post with getting the northern and southern shortwaves close enough to interact and cause a more expansive shield back NW of I-81. Wouldn't be heavy but I'd consider 1-2" a win back this way if it happened. This is starting to look like an advisory type event roughly I-81 east and I-78 south. 

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  8. My take on this Sat night/Sunday system is the most likely area for accumulating snow in C-PA is probably going to run I-81 and esp SE of I-81 (could be an I-95 axis). This storm could sneak back a bit more but I don't see alot of amplification (much more progressive than our last system lol) and the northern and southern shortwaves stay separate. I think the best chance NW of I-81 is if there's a bit of interaction and enough amplification that we can generate an area of lighter snows between the two shortwaves. Some model runs were playing around with that a bit so we'll see. I personally think we'll see something like that but its not going to be anything heavy. 

    Good news is if we fizzle on this we're probably not waiting too long for the next one in what looks like a very active storm track. Obviously "potential" in the pattern is only realized if it actually comes to fruition but this 10-14 day period coming up is teeming with it, as evidenced by the 18z GFS run. We have legit arctic air on the playing field now unlike December and most of January and if it actually gets released into the eastern CONUS at some point in this period it's probably going to be something of a magnitude we haven't seen since the 2014-2015 winter.

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  9. I'll be curious to see the NESIS ranking of this storm. My guess is it's a solid/higher end 3, judging by the snow reports it had a pretty wide ranging 10-20" swath that got into the outer metro regions W and NW of all the big cities, with NYC/LI being the one big city metro that got into that 10-20. DC looked like it rode the edge of the 4-10" swath, while Philly was more into it but some suburbs there had big totals (. Same with Boston, there actually wasn't too much in the metro but a lot of mid-high teens reports in the suburbs. The 20-30" swath obviously located in a much more populated area than the December storm, which I think was a big reason it only ended up being a 2. 

  10. Lot of uncertainty in the models in the mid-range. Euro just went from plenty cold to straight up rainer between 0 to 12z runs with the wave it had out around D7. Actually it seems like all guidance really backed off the cold in this particular timeframe where there is that potential following wave after whatever materializes Sunday.  It does look like this is going to be a gradient pattern setting up as guidance isn't completely dumping the PV into the east like it was a few days ago. Going to likely be some back and forth with where this gradient sets up. 

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  11. 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    This event was a forum wide crowd pleaser for most and 56 hours after it started, is still padding stats in central Pa. 

    Gonna be hard to top this winter IMO. 
     

    But let’s try...

    Definitely the longest lasting nor’easter I can remember.
     

    Got any cheap sleds for sale? Haha this looking like one of those rare good stretches for snowmobiling. 

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  12. Just got home after being out and about this evening. Best average I got is about 2” of new snow, but pretty variable as it’s wind driven and drifting. Took a drive to our camp in NW Huntingdon County before dark and roads are all a snow packed mess again after being clear this afternoon. 

    3B3AD0CD-E269-4B12-9215-5F7B2CAFBA86.thumb.jpeg.6426a6564fc017c127bf0126f0ba57f7.jpegFF7B498A-65EB-4B77-8FFC-90C3A335CDE1.thumb.jpeg.7117c79f13b0e61e26bdfa77dbc5252b.jpegDD210495-A2FA-408F-9DC4-A3404D6410FE.thumb.jpeg.91a8cdcd4dcdefe207bc8327c70b71a5.jpegDD6B403A-FBCD-44C1-8C6D-5A1B7A358E53.thumb.jpeg.dbc90f010002fcbbe686efe9cee91446.jpeg
     

    Getting crushed right now. This stuff is very fluffy and the stiff breeze is blowing it around.

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  13. Some climo stuff from the AFD this afternoon. Check out the excerpt about State College.

    Quote
    .CLIMATE...
    2-day storm total snowfall:
    
    Harrisburg:   4.6 Sun + 7.9 Mon = 12.5
    Williamsport: 3.2 Sun + 11.2 Mon = 14.6
    
    The State College COOP site reported a storm total of 12.5"
    ending 7AM Tuesday. This was the second 12"+ snowfall this
    season; only the 9th time on record with more than one 12"+
    storm in a season. The last season with two 12"+ storms was
    1995-1996. h/t @SteveSeman

     

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