MAG5035

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s the latest from @psuhoffman :

Honestly…If all the globals looked like the NAM right now I’d be sweating bullets that it could trend further NW given a closed H5 and h7 low tracking through Ohio and PA.  Honestly that’s normally a snow to mix type track for us. For reference March 2017 Dec 2020 and Feb 2021 had similar mid and upper level tracks.  If I was looking the h5 of a long range run like I often do first when I flipped to the surface I’d kinda expect to see a central PA snow jack type storm. 

The extremely cold air mass and 1050 high helps mitigate that here. But remember when someone was throwing out March 2001 because of the h5 similarities. That was modeled to miss us south all week and Mets were saying what I am now, that it “should” be more north. Then at 48 hours it came north…and just kept going lol. 

Now wouldn’t that be the ultimate kick in the nuts. If tomorrow all the models come back north and show us getting 20” and we throw a party. Then they keep going and it ends up a central PA jack and we get snow to rain!  

Like I said last night, I see a problem of amplification. The true big KU events typically have an established anomalous western ridge. 3 of those 4 storms mentioned in that post have them, with the March 2017 example in particular being the classic western ridge axis positioning for a C-PA snowstorm. I dunno if Dec 2020 is a good overall comparison to the setup happening here.

Anyways, as mentioned last night and by others here and there, the shortwave progged to come into the west coast Wednesday dampens the ridging that tries to pop up… that keeps the southern wave progressive and elongates the interaction with the closed northern branch 500mb feature. If I recall correctly, I think even JB mentioned that feature several days ago as something that could screw this up being a really big storm. He’s since been all in on this being big though. I just don’t see how this makes the full turn up the coast to be a full blown hammer for everyone. What I could see is the how the NAM handles the southern stream wave and what boundary that runs on. Theoretically one could think that jives better with progged positioning of the other mid level features I suppose. But it better start getting some other support. This is still going to have a swath of pretty significant snows with it, but I think the swath will end up confined much more than if this were able to fully phase in and blow up. That still seems to favor south of here at the moment. And again, the closed 500mb low is progged to pass right through PA. That at least should still suggest a likelihood of a lighter snow event in a sizeable portion of PA even if the heavier snows of the southern wave goes too far south and east for most in here. 

It touched 38ºF here early this afternoon but it couldn’t have been for more than an hour or so. That’s how most of these CAD ice events roll around here despite whatever major warm push any model ever shows. Not to mention the surface low tracked right through PA and not the lakes… there wasn’t ever going to be a major warm push even in the southern tier. 

We were back to snow before 4 on the back end and now the upslope is starting to set up along with the winds ramping up. Winds weren’t too crazy right after FROPA but last 10-15 min have had some pretty big gusts. That plus the sideways snow already has the roads deteriorating again. Temp down to 28ºF. Other than the compaction of the new snow from the ice, there was little to no real melting of anything. 

Surprised no one noticed CTP and PBZ put Somerset and Westmoreland/Fayette Ridges zones in a blizzard warning through a good portion of tomorrow. I’m sure Cambria is occasionally going to have those type of conditions as well. 

We might not be a snowtown but we do ice like no other haha. Still around freezing.

This is my parents place a few miles up the road in Bellwood

Here’s my take on next week’s system. I’m seeing a problem of amplification out west right now. If you’re gonna throw in classic big east coast storm comparisons like a Jan 96 et al you better have a good western ridge set. What I’m seeing in the progs today is there’s shortwave coming ashore on the west coast that seems like its dampening/pushing the ridging that pops up before it ever really builds to allow that 500mb shortwave in the northern plains to drop in and bring the coastal up. So instead the southern feature goes out ahead and elongates the whole thing and doesn’t allow that coastal to turn the whole way up. I think the eventual handling/interaction of that shortwave that comes into the west while all the rest of this is coming out on playing field is going play a big part on whether this comes fully back to a big threat or not. Or.. if some part of the Mid-Atlantic piles more snow up below us. 

But, if the coastal does end up going wagons south and east with the primary coastal in the end… I do still think a widespread lighter to perhaps even moderate snowfall in places is quite possible in PA from the upper feature, as it’s a pretty strong 500mb low that tracks over the state and there will still likely be some kind of interaction with the southern feature in that scenario. So while I’m fairly pessimistic about scoring the big hitter at the moment I’m definitely not thinking this is a complete non-event. 

Been pretty busy today. 2.4” (tied for second biggest snowfall this winter lol) was my total snowfall this morning and it’s been occasional freezing rain/drizzle since. Still at 31.6ºF and still actively icing on the trees and the driveway with the next batch of rain coming in. Don’t expect much movement in temp here until the mid-morning most likely. 

The one Euro thing that isn’t on board for next week currently is the EuroGPT. That thing’s been even more of a whiff than the GFS the last couple runs. 

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is the info I personally like to see.    Gives us an idea of where the margins are coming from.  An exciting number in my opinion though still definitely cause for retrain. 

It’s still a really solid signal from the ensemble at this range as it has like 30 members with a warning snowfall and the vast majority with an advisory event.  Although the Euro is by far the best ensemble at the moment compared to the GEFS and Canadian ensemble. 

Here is it’s multi-run snowfall mean trend the last 4 days. It’s definitely trending in the good direction currently.

Here was MDT’s plume from the 12z Euro ensemble. About 18/51 with a double digit snowfall.

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS is MUCH better for the LSV. Looks like warning amounts, especially east of I81. Decent snows farther N&W. 

Canadian’s coming in looking way better as well. Good start to the 0z suite. Been waiting to see how things respond as sometimes these storms kind of go away in the models during this particular range. The ingredients are going to be there for a big storm if we can amp and phase it in time to turn it up the coast. 

In the middle of quite the snow band right now. Haven’t been out to measure yet but looks like around an inch. 

We did actually end up with a fresh half inch of snow early this morning, which brought the running total up to a crippling 1.1” haha. 30/27ºF currently awaiting the messy part of this overall event to arrive later.

Only 0.6” here today, a decided underachiever even being positioned on the fringe of this event. Still need 11” of snow just to reach last year’s lackluster season total. One of these bigger events needs to get us at some point. 

I’m up at Blue Knob currently, the snow started a bit after noon up here. Looks like about an inch so far. Judging off the cameras looked like some kind of coating to perhaps a half inch at the house. 

Boy things have sure escalated the last few runs in terms of the medium-longer range. It appears we transition into a pattern next week more favorable for traditional amplification and the overnight runs have definitely obliged on that front with the big storm being progged D8-10 on both Euro and GFS as well as some ensemble support. That’s when the MJO is forecast to be running in 8 by that point, coupled with the PNA forecast to transition to postive and the NAO transitioning from deep negative toward neutral. Definitely a period of interest for sure. 

Working backwards, the weekend system is trending towards somewhat more interesting. Models seem to be starting to respond toward the fact there is a pretty significantly negative NAO block ongoing and have thus started forcing that deeper low more SE towards the coast instead of a straight lakes cutter. GFS/Euro have actually been taking the low to the coast along or under the M/D line, with the GFS being the colder scenario. Either way, that storm might not be the straight forward brief mix to rain scenario it had been looking like. 

Lastly, we still seem set for today.. least in terms of what I was thinking for accums. No real changes on those thoughts.. which was basically not much above I-80, 1-2” between I-80 and the turnpike, and 2-4” turnpike south..with near the M/D line maybe seeing a couple 5” amounts. One thing I’ve been watching is some guidance has been getting the snow up into the central counties a bit further in latitude.. so AOO-UNV corridor could possibly get into a lower advisory amount type scenario. We shall see. Tomorrow’s mix scenario that may start as more snow is still there but QPF has been kind of lacking with that lately. It will likely need another advisory for most in here for at least T ice expected and maybe an inch or two of snow for some. 

I haven’t really posted much lately on the next two events but the evolution of this becoming almost essentially a single two pronged event of sorts between Tuesday and then the system that tries to cut later Wednesday is a detriment to the Tuesday one being the widespread bigger C-PA snow event it otherwise could be… as the system that makes Tuesday’s event ejects out weaker and the energy left for Wed-Thurs one digs. There’s still plenty of moisture for Tuesday, just on a fast W-E flow. So while I can’t rule out a bump north in the next 24hrs, I’m not really expecting more significant accums to get above about the turnpike or so. IMO, this is looking like a 1-2” between the turnpike and 80 and advisory (2-4” perhaps some 5 on the M/D)  in the southern tier of counties centered on the turnpike. Better snows south and not much once above 80. 

That leaves the Wed-Thur system quick on this one’s heels that is going to try to cut into a fairly well positioned Canadian high. Given the reinforcing high and also how quick on the heels this is of something that presumably would have just dropped a good swath of snows centered on the DC/NOVA folks, this has a good chance of running a wave of front end snows much further up into eastern and central PA before any mixing. Especially if the precip gets its act together more quickly.. like the RGEM and GFS has for example. There may not really be much of a lull between these systems in the end. 

Here’s what the roads looked like a bit ago, that’s entirely sleet.

Things are getting plowed off now but there’s been more freezing rain in the mix. Still about 30. 

Measured roughly 1.3” of pure pingers so far. The pellets are really fine so it makes walking on it like walking on the beach. 

It’s been sleeting so hard we’re already getting close to as much as we had on the ground Wed Night for the whole event, which was about an inch. 

Thunder sleet, again. 

The first small wave of precip has arrived here as a pretty decent burst of sleet, already whitening things. 28/25ºF

I had about an inch of sleet and some minor freezing rain accumulation this morning to go with what ended up being 4 lightning strikes I saw between 4-5am this morning. I dunno if I’ve had that much thunder and lightning during the whole late summer and fall lol. 

Mixed out here around 2 or so and went from 34 to 48 in about 35 minutes, so a pretty good meltdown ensuing and quite windy. 

28ºF and mostly heavy sleet now, with a bit of freezing rain in the mix as well. I’ve seen three lightning strikes. 

Officially thunder pingers here with that line coming overhead. Nice lightning strike. 

28ºF/23ºF and a steady freezing drizzle has commenced here in the last 20 minutes. Already icing over everything.