MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035


  1. On 7/21/2020 at 3:16 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

    I forget if @MAG5035 lives north or south of Altoona, but flood advisories are up for south of town...

    On the north side of town of course. I've had a few doses of rain the last couple days but definitely not enough. And of course same deal tonight with the real heavy stuff just south of town. Hopefully some of it bubbles up this way. 

    On that note I'm getting rather concerned about the training going on in the southern half of Cambria (Johnstown and surrounding communities). Already flash flood warnings out and 2"+ on the doppler estimates. 

     


  2. 4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

    3K Nam has handled the Lake Erie storms well.  Really wish they would make it down to us.  Are you in the D1 drought area now?  its close to you.  In my back yard we are officially 10" below normal  for rain counting May, June and July as of today.  I lived through some of the terrible Florida droughts/wildfires and this is topping them all.  Never thought I would see a double digit deficit over a 75 day period. 

    I'm pretty much within the edge of the D1 zone now. Doesn't look like tonight's action is getting here either, with a split in the thunderstorm activity poised to go north and southwest of here. On the drought monitor's national map, the area of drought conditions in PA is labeled as a short term drought.. which would indicate despite it being very dry in a lot of the area that the drought hasn't progressed to one that has adversely affected the water table, reservoirs, etc. 


  3. On 7/18/2020 at 9:20 AM, Blizzard of 93 said:

    @MAG5035

    Is there any hope for this terrible heat pattern breaking down any time soon?

    Unfortunately overall it looks like we will remain in this type of regime for perhaps most of the rest of the month. It won't be wall to wall max heat but the periods within the next 8-14 days that are "cooler" are still likely to be at least somewhat above average.. which is still hot this time of the year as we're pretty much within our hottest portion of the year the next 3-4 weeks. We've been due for that wall to wall hot and dry summer July/August, although I guess some folks east of the Susquehanna haven't been all that dry lately. 

    As for today, saw that CXY and MDT are back up to 99ºF again after falling to 97 briefly. Two weather stations on mesowest up over 100ºF (101 near Shippensburg and 100 near the MD line south of Gettysburg). Mid to upper 90s are pretty common today in the south central, especially near and west of the Susquehanna and even back here to the eastern Allegheny front where 94-95ºF readings look pretty common. 

    Thunderstorms have fired off of Erie a few hours early by the looks of short term guidance, esp the 3k NAM.. which could allow whatever organized line that materializes out of OH to press further into the central counties early this evening. 


  4. 3 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

    Last month Johnstown came in with the least cumulative precipitation in the state (0.96”) which shows how dry it’s been your way.  I had 1.17” which wasn’t too far behind but with higher temps, may have been a higher impact 

    That region of the Laurel's has definitely reversed that trend in the last few days, especially just south of JST in parts of Somerset County as we've had a more favorable setup for pop up afternoon storms. One of the first places they fire on hot/humid days around here is typically along those ridges in the Laurels. The late afternoon storms that triggered a flash flood warning in a portion of Somerset earlier (couple spots of 3-4" on the doppler estimate) were on the heels of the same general area getting a similar blob of slow moving storms and scattered areas of 2-3+ totals on the doppler estimates just the other day.

    Meanwhile down here, no dice again this evening. All around and not here. My yard is still in ok-ish shape, but we need hit with something in the next few days. 


  5. 4 hours ago, Voyager said:

    We just got another 1.50" of rain today.

    I guess from here on out I better shut up about the Tamaqua Split... :lol:

    I’ve been feeling that struggle the last couple weeks haha. My location has missed out in all directions on all the daily storms... although the blossoming radar up the mountain from here might suggest the weather may have other plans this evening for a change.


  6. The interesting thing about this run of hot weather so far is we are achieving widespread 90+ on what has been a generally a pretty solid northerly flow the last few days. The good thing about that is the source region is obviously much drier than a more typical southerly or southwesterly flow would be with drawing the humidity from the south. The result is MDT at 93ºF currently with a 56ºF dew point (29% humidity) and a heat index value of only 91ºF.. for instance. So it's certainly a stretch of hot weather but it definitely could be worse. I suspect humidity will be increasing the next few days as flow reverses, which could help for more thunderstorm chances. We'll still be in the same hot weather regime with similar temps in the 90s, so as humidity goes up we may see some air quality/heat related headlines needed for the urban areas in the Sus Valley. 

    • Like 1

  7. Pretty impressive miss for the local area lol. Arthur sliding east up the coast and out and the cutoff low that is progged to slowly drop down west, and then under us. Quite a satellite presentation. You can even see a bit of another counter-clockwise spin in Southern Alabama.

    CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-truecolor-19_06Z-20200518_map_-29-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.0900ebcaaee98a073558c0138e207b26.gif

    LOOP

     

    • Like 2

  8. Dang a lot of mid 80s in the Sus Valley this afternoon, what a difference a week makes. Next week looks wet, that potential tropical system off the Florida coast will have to be watched for interaction with the cutoff low that's progged to sit around a good chunk of next week. 


  9. Looking over the stations that CTP gave numbers for record minimum highs on.. MDT at 46ºF beat theirs by two degrees, Altoona by 1 (40ºF), and IPT (46ºF) and Bradford (34ºF) tied their record values. Browsing the Laurel's stations on the mesowest site, JST and a couple of the stations reporting in Cambria/Somerset barely got above freezing... while a few stations in the Laurel Ridge area near Seven Spring's did not go above freezing at all. 

    What's really amazing about these min/max temps is the fact that it was achieved on a day that had a fair amount of sunshine in between the clouds/snow showers. Just shows how cold the airmass was. And it even ended up that the core of the 500 low and -40º 500mb temps did in fact only swing through upstate New York/southern New England (hat tip to the Euro). 

     


  10. These heavier squalls moving through the central counties right now are probably going to make it to Harrisburg and deeper into the LSV the next couple hours with the best daytime heating likely maintaining them. Look for them to have grapuel and snow pellets in them as well with the sun heating surface temps into the 40s. 

    • Like 1

  11. 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

    Its cruel isn't it. I dropped from 39 to 32 almosy literally instantly with the changeover though but I'm way north and at 2000'

    Speaking of cruel, the deck and the car tops are already froze over here. That's going to be a long time we're below freezing here (probably 10-12hrs). 


  12. 31 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    Anyway, how are we looking with the advance of the snow line to the south & east ?

    I'd say judging by the radar your currently at your best opportunity to see a mix or changeover with the remaining synoptic precip.