MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035


  1. 17 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

    Same here...any models showing that much snow?

    Pretty much all guidance except the NAM (until 0z tonight) have been showing good front snows with varying degrees of mixing later in the event (Euro pretty much an all snow event back in our area). The new 0z NAM now joining the party with the bigger front end thump. So def not a fluke or anything, but a little early to be including accums like that in the grid forecasts considering how rapidly this current one went sideways the last few days. 


  2. Screaming southerly winds showing on velocity near the 850mb level, >60knots showing up. Basically the reason why this has WAA aloft and associated mixed precip driving further and further north has been so robust. With the lowest 0.5º tilt you can make out the general wind direction near the radar site as well, which is out of the ESE. That easterly component at the surface is going to keep temps from going much of anywhere.  

    77362761_ScreenShot2021-02-15at9_06_28PM.thumb.png.199c747e18a6230c7eb33105e73cdb50.png


  3. 1 minute ago, Cambria County Wx said:

    Yeah, it's moving in now, definitely trying to become more sleet.....close to 70/30, 80/20 than earlier. 

    Hopefully we can stay more sleet for a good bit of this event. Looking at the dual pol products on the radar with the higher tilts it looks like the mixing layer is still pretty high up.. roughly about the 4,000ft level (up closer to the 850mb level). So that gives a good bit of time for droplets to refreeze thru the colder 925mb level to the surface.  


  4. 1 minute ago, dj88 said:

    Just went to an ice storm warning as well. Is a half inch of freezing rain realistic?

    Yea it's def attainable in the warning area. The main consequences of the models trending NW the last several runs are aloft, with much more robust warming at the 850mb and 925mb level, especially looking at today's runs. Surface CAD is still about the same which will maintain freezing rain, and I know it's above freezing in some spots right now but dew points are mostly in the 20s and this is coming overnight as well. 

    I'm hoping more sleet is able to nose down and knock freezing rain down some here. This is my point and click for tonight, then 12ºF for a low tomorrow night, ugh.

    Quote

    Freezing rain and sleet before 4am, then a chance of freezing rain between 4am and 5am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet after 5am. Low around 28. East wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.3 to 0.5 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of around an inch possible.

     


  5. The positives I see for Thursday are a better positioned high pressure to the north and the fact that this is coming pretty quickly on the heels of tonight's system...which about the only thing that's gonna be good for other than ice tonight is finally moving the gradient some as we do have some half decent cold that will come in behind. That aforementioned high actually builds overhead before shifting north of us as this next system approached. So I think we can at least get widespread front end snow if this stronger high holds in. That's part of what sunk us with the current one, which I've mentioned a couple times.

    Problems I see are that the overall mean trough axis is still going to be similarly positioned to where it is now (a bit too far west for my liking) and that's going to present the opportunity for this to track like the current system, potentially sending the surface low up the west side of the apps to an eventual transfer to the coast. Southern tier is pretty vulnerable to mixing in this setup IMO. Looking at mid-level features, even the Euro is a bit left of my liking with the 850mb low (roughly taking that overhead). The GFS and || GFS had a more focused 850mb low that went west and drew a stronger southerly flow and more mix. The stronger surface high to the north is extremely important for front end snow and maybe getting this low pressure under us, although I"m somewhat pessimistic of that happening without at least some surface low reflection carrying up west of the Apps up to at least the Ohio River. Probably don't want this to slow down at all either. The faster on the heels of the current system, the better chance it has at staying under us. 

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  6. Can't help but marvel at the craziness of this weather event down in Texas. San Antonio socked in with heavy snow and FOURTEEN DEGREES. Brownsville, TX sitting colder than MDT right now at 32ºF and reporting light snow. The Brownsville NWS was saying in their discussion their ASOS sites aren't even equipped with freezing rain sensors bc well, guess that stuff never happens down there lol. 


  7. 1 hour ago, basehore said:

    Wow this non stop nw sprint is getting unreal.  Hopefully the late night run stops it.  If not this could be a Detroit special and we move on to Thursday looking for white gold and not ice.  

    Yea it's not going to get that far over, it's too cold there lol.

    However, pretty much all guidance has moved to running this surface low up the west side of the Apps basically up to SW PA before it shows any signs of jumping to the coast. That's not going to cut it, we need this to stay under PA. Really the only difference this makes for central PA is it just makes thing's icier (more freezing rain) since there is enough of a CAD setup to hang in surface temps near or below freezing over all the area for a good portion of the event before maybe spiking above freezing into the LSV below the turnpike right at the end. This is going to affect the northern tier's snow accumulation's some as the mixing is likely going to drive pretty far into northern PA now with a track like that. Still should be a half decent snowfall up there though. A stripe somewhere in the central counties is probably going to see a decent sleet accumulation  (1-2") where somewhat deeper cold likes to stay anchored. The silver lining? The majority of the main wave of precip associated with the surface low Monday night is out of the area in about 10hrs or so. Then we can focus in on the next incoming mess Thursday. 


  8. Speaking of AFD updates haha.

    Quote
    .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
    3 pm update... Overall, a northwestward shift in the cyclone
    track for the early week winter storm has continued with today`s
    model runs. The consequences for this across Central PA are
    somewhat less snowfall, but a higher freezing rain risk for
    areas near and just south of I-78 and US-22.
    
    A shot of mostly light snow still looks to move across the
    Commonwealth Monday morning to early afternoon, but with the
    bulk of the steadier/heavier precipitation holding off until
    later in the day and at night. Strong low to mid-level jets will
    bring in much deeper moisture tomorrow night, along with
    significant warming above the boundary layer. Closer to the
    PA/NY border, thermal profiles still support mostly snow, with
    perhaps a brief wintry mix in the pre-dawn early Tuesday. Thus,
    we felt comfortable with a Winter Storm Warning for the northern
    tier, with generally 6-9" of snow foreseen. Farther south,
    initial snow will go over to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing
    rain, with a likely change over to rain for a time in the Lower
    Susquehanna Valley.
    
    The primary uncertainties involve sleet vs. freezing rain and
    how much ice accretion can thus take place over some of our
    southern counties. At this time, we felt the course of least
    regret was to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the potential for
    localized ice accretions GTE 0.25" from the Laurel Highlands,
    northeast to just north of Harrisburg, then over towards the
    southern Poconos (Lebanon and Schuylkill counties). A strong
    ageostrophic northerly flow and fairly cold air perched just to
    our north and northeast will make it difficult for surface
    readings to go above freezing in some locales across the Watch
    area.
    
    For all unmentioned locations, a Winter Weather Advisory seems
    in order, for a general 2-6" of snow, along with a
    sleet/freezing rain mix for a time Monday night.
    
    Steadier precipitation should begin to wind down from southwest
    to northeast, as a mid-level dry slot rotates overhead towards
    daybreak Tuesday.

     


  9. Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

    Update lol 

    Yup lol just saw. It does make sense since there's still time to review more guidance tonight ahead of this. Saw Mount Holly go right to warnings for half their CWA and figured CTP was about to do the same. So watches on a swath of south-central PA for the heightened ice concern (possible areas of .25"+). Some of the central/north central watch counties plus the non watch counties to advisory for more mixing eating into snow totals and likely more of a sleet event over ZR for the mix type. 

    Also, I understand the LSV folks kind of tuning this out for the Thursday one but this next one starting well, tomorrow is still going to get everyone in here with at least a fairly high impact advisory level winter storm. 

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  10. 40 minutes ago, Voyager said:

    Does anyone know when the last time the ENTIRE state of Texas was under a Winter Storm Warning at the same time?

    Untitled.jpg

     

    Probably never. That is a gigantic expanse of the southern US under winter storm warnings. And those wind chill warnings that cover pretty much the entire north central US also are including a large portion of those winter storm warned counties. Def a historic and wide reaching arctic air outbreak. 


  11. 20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm.

    #itshappeningthursday

    Only real big difference is the more robust high pressure progged to our north and NE for Thursday (and overall in the rest of the CONUS. That was the kind of high pressure models had north of us for Mon/Tues a few days ago whenever it was looking mostly snowy in PA. Helps deflect the surface low to the coast in time and at worst anchors a CAD wedge if the low tries to work up the other side of the Apps. Going to be extremely important to maintain that, because Thursday's storm could easily do the same thing the next one up seems destined to do, especially in the LSV. 

    Mon/Tues storm arrival:

    ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp_anom-3455200.thumb.png.505426dbf1bf2d83746d7dd5f52d0594.png

     

    Thursday storm arrival:

    ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp_anom-3660400.thumb.png.237dfc51c21d99610a9623d72fab7719.png

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