MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035


  1. 3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

    So after last evening the data suggests a smoky sky is not one that will limit radiational cooling like a cloudy sky. 

    This was my post on this last night, as CTP had a good explanation in their discussion.

    15 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

    Pretty interesting and informative disco from CTP tonight...A little reminder of Meteo 436 (Atmospheric Radiation) a long time ago.  Adjusting temps down some tomorrow due to the smoke remaining in the upper levels. Frost advisory up for McKean County (Bradford area) tonight. 

    Quote
    
    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
    Efficient radiational cooling associated with surface high
    should result in a chilly overnight. Although a large area of
    smoke has moved in over the area, this should not impact
    overnight low temps. Smoke can filter out shortwave radiation
    from the sun resulting in cooler days, but is not as effective
    in absorbing longwave radiation (the smoke particles are too
    small), so it has little impact on overnight low temps. Diurnal
    mixing will diminish early this evening, bringing nearly calm
    winds. A large spread between air and stream water temperatures
    should result in the typical dendritic pattern of valley fog
    across the Alleghenies after midnight. In addition, latest
    guidance lends increasing confidence in areas of frost in the
    normally cooler hollows of northwest Pa. A frost advisory is in
    effect for Mckean County where the frost is expected to most
    widespread, with more patchy frost anticipated elsewhere across
    the northwest mountains.
    
    Large scale subsidence and dry air associated with center of
    surface high should translate to a virtually cloudless Tuesday.
    However, we will continue to see smoke advected in aloft from
    the wildfires out west. As such, knocked down high temps a few
    degrees for Tue, with temps generally not getting out of the
    upper 60s. Dewpoints will remain around 40F, possibly lower if
    we can mix up to the very dry air near 5kft, but was not too
    aggressive with mixing due to smoke filtering the sunshine.

     

    • Thanks 1

  2. Pretty interesting and informative disco from CTP tonight...A little reminder of Meteo 436 (Atmospheric Radiation) a long time ago.  Adjusting temps down some tomorrow due to the smoke remaining in the upper levels. Frost advisory up for McKean County (Bradford area) tonight. 

    Quote
    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
    Efficient radiational cooling associated with surface high
    should result in a chilly overnight. Although a large area of
    smoke has moved in over the area, this should not impact
    overnight low temps. Smoke can filter out shortwave radiation
    from the sun resulting in cooler days, but is not as effective
    in absorbing longwave radiation (the smoke particles are too
    small), so it has little impact on overnight low temps. Diurnal
    mixing will diminish early this evening, bringing nearly calm
    winds. A large spread between air and stream water temperatures
    should result in the typical dendritic pattern of valley fog
    across the Alleghenies after midnight. In addition, latest
    guidance lends increasing confidence in areas of frost in the
    normally cooler hollows of northwest Pa. A frost advisory is in
    effect for Mckean County where the frost is expected to most
    widespread, with more patchy frost anticipated elsewhere across
    the northwest mountains.
    
    Large scale subsidence and dry air associated with center of
    surface high should translate to a virtually cloudless Tuesday.
    However, we will continue to see smoke advected in aloft from
    the wildfires out west. As such, knocked down high temps a few
    degrees for Tue, with temps generally not getting out of the
    upper 60s. Dewpoints will remain around 40F, possibly lower if
    we can mix up to the very dry air near 5kft, but was not too
    aggressive with mixing due to smoke filtering the sunshine.

     


  3. I don't think we've made it to 70 here today under the clouds and had a couple decent showers late morning/early afternoon. Pretty much been cloudy here since Friday. 

    You can see on satellite how the frontal system working through central PA this afternoon has drawn some of the western wildfire smoke up into it at the higher levels from the SW and also from the NW some.  Also you can see the two big ticket tropical items Paulette and Sally. Will have to see how much Sally eventually gets drawn up north before being shoved out ahead of another frontal push late week. Euro ensembles show some reasonable precip chances southern half of the state but right now it seems the general model consensus is the majority of eventual remnants stay south of PA. So we'll see how that goes. Right now Sally's being forced under the current frontal boundary to take its forecasted WNW toward the LA coast. That's also contributing to the westerly shear on it attm as well. Hopefully it doesn't get too wound up, because that is a bad angle to take towards New Orleans. 

    1336319430_ScreenShot2020-09-13at4_41_25PM.thumb.png.c8828e39ccf40759e299b49de1c3bedc.png

    Next weekend looks dare I say, kind of chilly behind the system that eventually kicks Sally away. Could be a decent chance of some frost in northern PA as well as the usual cooler suspects in the Laurels and central counties. The first couple days this week after the passage of today's system looks pretty nice as well, with Tuesday morning the chilliest and a more limited frost chance (Bradford/Allegheny National forest region). 

    • Like 1

  4. On 9/11/2020 at 3:07 PM, Cashtown_Coop said:

    Course not the house the record.  I was 0.000 at home.   The rain at course was perfect.  Get to keep the system off all weekend.  I tore my lateral meniscus so things have been hard the last 3 weeks.  Mother Nature on my side this time.  

     

    On 9/11/2020 at 3:54 PM, 2001kx said:

    I wish it was but had a rough couple months..

    Was hit in the face by a rock during an Motocross Race..Busted my goggles.

    Fractured my eye socket, cheek bone, around my nasal cavity and above my upper back teeth (jaw bone)

    But the worst part is my eye has a blurry spot in the middle and my pupil doesnt work (always big / open) and the dr. said it may never get better.

     

    Other than that it has been good -lol.

     

    Goodness I hope everyone has a quick/full recovery from all the injuries. We're gonna have to put out an injury report when we're full swing in the wintertime at this rate lol. 

    • Haha 1

  5. Today was low key one of the more muggy days of a summer that's had wall to wall hot weather but not necessarily much of the hot/humid combo. 

    7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Oddly enough, it's rained more than it hasn't since noon here. Yet, most of the rain has fallen when the sun was at least visible if not out completely, and the only times it hasn't been raining is when it's been dark as night. 

    DC area is getting crushed right now. Bad situation developing down in southern MD and DC metro area. Sounds like water rescues are ongoing...

    That region seems to be on the kind of insane run of way above average precip that the LSV saw the last two summers (especially 2018). 

    • Like 1

  6. 3 hours ago, canderson said:

    I expect to hit 87 today and 84 tomorrow but it does look a bit cooler after. 

    We're less than two weeks from the fall equinox, it's getting harder and harder for even the H-burg desert to get near that 90 degree mark without having a pretty anomalous airmass around. Looks really nice early next week after the passage of a system Sunday that might finally provide some regional rain chances. Also a chance of some thunderstorms mainly in the LSV tomorrow as well. The 12z Euro is actually quite robust on QPF especially in York/Lancaster counties. 


  7. Wow what a loop, if anyone sees this soon you can see the very robust storm in the Rockies wrapping in some of the wildfire smoke from California and Oregon. Insane how big those fires are and how much smoke is being generated.

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southwest-truecolor-96-1-100-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Oregon-truecolor-96-1-50-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

    I'll add in this shortwave IR snapshot. Every one of those black spots in California is a wildfire area, and there's several more further up in Oregon too.

    2068993300_ScreenShot2020-09-08at8_52_16PM.thumb.png.b292595bbc0add55cd2b48145e1bc91e.png

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

  8. 18 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

    My wife's brother happens to live in the foothills west of Denver in Golden, close to 6000 feet.  I'll be able to find out how much snow he gets when I talk to him early Wednesday.  I've been pouring over the news articles that the NWS (Denver) has on their site right now.  It's fascinating to see the records list for the greatest 1-, 2-, and 3-day temperature changes on record for Denver since the start of records in 1872.  Since the records run from midnight to midnight they won't be able to make it into the 1-day.  They'll come up a few degrees short on the 2-day since the current forecast change looks like about 62 degrees if they hit 94 tomorrow and drop to 32 on Tuesday morning (or before midnight Tuesday evening).

    I was reading that Denver's high temp yesterday of 101 degrees was the latest 100+ degree reading on record.  Near-record cold is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with temps around freezing both days.

    What I can't get over is how many extreme records have been broken around the country this year.  I wonder if September 8th could be the earliest recorded snowfall for Denver?  Since I didn't see them mention that I guess they've had snowfall earlier.  Accumulating snow in summer.  Wow!

    Yea I'm not sure what would be crazier on it's own there, the late 100+ heat or seeing the snow. Obviously the combination of the two things within a day is insane and historic, especially in terms of temp differentials and departures. But honestly the heat wave part of this is likely the more extreme thing. It's relatively normal for the Rockies to start seeing higher elevation snows in September and Denver in fact averages 1.3" in September. It would appear that the only snow record Denver would break looking at what's being forecast there is possibly the heaviest first snowfall of the season. The earliest is 4.2" Sept 3, 1961. 

    Quote

    The month averages about 1.3″ inches with snow occurring once about every 5 years. There have been some very large snow storms in September but they have all occurred much later than September 8. In September 1971 there was 17.2 inches of snow in Denver, in 1936 there was 16.5 inches and in 1959 the city measured 12.9 inches of snow in September.

    https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/09/04/weather-whiplash-colorado-record-heat-cold-snow/

    This article also mentioned the last measurable September snow at Denver occurred September 24th, 2000. So this hasn't happened at all in September in the last two decades. 

    • Like 1

  9. 2 hours ago, paweather said:

    Do I see blue here? 

    Yup sure do, Denver may have their first snow of the season with that trough dumping into the Rockies. The Euro has been showing that as well. How's this for insane...look at the Euro ensemble output for KDEN. Literally supposed to be 90-100 for a high for a few days right up to the day before it maybe snowing there. 

    ecmwf-ensemble-KDEN-indiv_tmp_max_ecmwf-9091200.thumb.png.3f556976999738013558129d1dbb76ef.png

    ecmwf-ensemble-KDEN-indiv_snow_24-9091200.thumb.png.07ec4910d028cdd43243c81f8a7dd2c1.png

     

     

    • Like 1
    • Confused 1

  10. 3 hours ago, canderson said:

    How are we basically even? That’s crazy.

    You must be forgetting our first three months of the year featured cutter after cutter after cutter...after cutter. That's okay I don't blame you lol. We were wet the past winter into the early spring. We would likely have been in a more advanced stage of drought (longer term effects) had the last winter been a dry one to go with the mild. 


  11. 13 hours ago, canderson said:

    Hottest summer ever in Harrisburg. But where’s the heat, some say! CTP posted this today;

    61E70D9A-23BE-41CF-A1BA-E6A9D09490ED.png.4af0b3d7cdd628ced6bdb4ae5e44abc2.png

    I never did get to throw a response about the Mid-Atlantic folks saying where's the heat since we've been cranking through pages at a mid-winter pace this summer. Yea it has been a very hot summer in central PA. For me personally, there has definitely been summers with more blistering heat waves... but this has been one of the most consistently hot summers I can really think of. Humidity hasn't really been excessive this year, we've only had a few times where heat headlines were needed anywhere in the region. I think the combination of lack of excessive humidities and the overall dry ground conditions have contributed to the amount of 90º+ degree days seen in especially the Harrisburg/LSV area but regionwide as a whole. 

    I really haven't focused on the Mid-Atlantic much, but it seems like it has been way wetter down there overall. Look at the last 90 days down there compared to PA. I know Isaias is a chunk of that, but there is still a significant + departure in that region. I would venture a guess that part of why they are saying where's the heat is because DC and surrounding counties are running a whopping 8-12" above normal since June 1st. That and Harrisburg's summer 2020 would probably be business as usual for a DC summer. 

    dep_marfc_90.thumb.png.a3900eb56a43c0d5de874227a8720dd7.png

     

     

     

     


  12. Doppler estimates are about an inch or so around here the last 24 hours, which seems reasonable I suppose (not including the line of storms Thursday). We've had several rounds of showers and downpours the last two days. We'll need a good bit more to improve the longer term deficit over the last couple months but this is def some significant short term relief. Its got most of the lawn heading back green. 

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