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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035

  1. Still warned here.. for 2-4” haha. Not sure I’ve ever seen that before other for additional snowfall on an already ongoing event. These are 6” counties for warning criteria. 

    Quote
    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service State College PA
    548 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
    
    PAZ019-024>028-045-131100-
    /O.CON.KCTP.WS.W.0005.240213T0500Z-240213T1600Z/
    Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-
    Southern Clinton-
    Including the cities of State College, Johnstown, Altoona,
    Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, and Lock Haven
    548 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024
    
    ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
    TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY...
    
    * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4
      inches.
    
    * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.
    
    * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Tuesday. The heaviest
      snow will likely fall before dawn, with snow tapering off in
      most locations by around 8 AM.
    
    * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
      conditions could impact the morning commute.

     

  2. 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    I was joking about DT's penchant to always crown the Euro.    

     

    Rain has commenced here.    48/44

    Always got to give the hat tip to the Euro haha. If the current Euro depiction were to come to fruition the real winner is the Canadian/RGEM. That’s the kind of solution it constantly showed while the other globals including the Euro had the bigger swath of totals. Never really has embraced the big totals even now, though it has warning totals well east of C-PA. I dunno.. event’s got to occur first. I don’t plan on crowning ANY model for this one, but it certainly wouldn’t be the Euro if I did. 

    Meso models are going to handle the FGEN induced band of snow better than the globals at this point. I’d be surprised if there wasn’t at least a 4-6” swath coming across. Things can stop shifting south and tightening though, I never really thought I’d be in danger of being out of this event back this way (Altoona/State College region) but wow we’re there right now according to a lot of guidance. Lighter rates outside of the main FGEN induced area of heavy snow are going to be hard to get accums going coming into this event warm. 

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  3. 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    my concern is the speed of the storm as we lose a good chunk of white qpf to warm thermals and waiting for transfer.  1-2 hours off and boom becomes bust for some of us southers. 

    The progged evolution of the low has appeared to change some. Might not be truly one but it’s more of an A look than a B look now with the low mostly just going right to the coast and deepening  pretty far south of PA instead of a distinct primary trying to cut thru WV towards western PA. That’s what really cuts QPF and really sharpens the gradient on the NW side of the storm in western/north central PA. It also is what now puts the whole Sus Valley back in the game. Said yesterday the dynamics are there to snow whereever in PA that swath decides to set up, irregardless of elevation. There’s going to be intense rates in that banding. It is going to be moving pretty fast either way. 

     

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  4. Boy if we see this all the way through with where things are at currently this would be one of the biggest shifts south in the short term I’ve seen for around here anytime lately. Some of that high res guidance suggests several of those northern most warned counties don’t even see a flake of snow and folks like atomix and 2001kx are right on the edge. 

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  5. I’ll probably draw up a snowmap for this sometime tomorrow, most likely after I see 12z guidance. I don’t do the “first guess”, “first final guess”, “second final guess”, “actual final guess”, etc haha. 

    Where am I at with this currently? I think I-80 corridor and a bit north of there is favored for the big totals right now and big totals being an 8-12” type with some scattered higher totals. This is gonna hit hard where the banding sets up. And that’s really the big thing about this ticking north. Dynamics with this thing transferring to a rapidly deepening coastal and likely heavy banded precip is enough to snow wherever in CTP. But if primary climbs too far before that occurs then the best banded precip is north… which is kind of where the models headed the last couple runs (esp yesterday). 

    This is my take on headlines right now, I drew out where I think advisories probably should be. The 6” line is probably somewhere within these question mark counties.. but I’m not sure if it’s going to cover enough of those counties to warrant a warning yet.. hence the question mark. 

    1037653572_CTPmap.png.36a541e073506f4d2e8e4cd727b5fea7.png

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  6. Gonna touch on the pattern a bit before happy hour. 

    Still much to be determined second half of the month with continued wild variance on operational guidance. It seems forgotten by some how hard it is to hone in on things in a blocky pattern with a myriad of different features in a split flow. One thing that is showing persistently in the 6-10 day period is a hard dive in the EPO to significantly negative anomalies starting in the wake of our departing system Tuesday. With -NAO/AO and +PNA ongoing, this presents an opportunity to inject a cold shot into the pattern… which the Euro picks up on as well as the GFS to a lesser degree. That seems to center near the P-Day period, whether we can will the available southern stream system into PD3 or not. EPO neutralizes near 2/21-22. The pattern looks active storm-wise too in that Feb 15-25 realm. I think the only sure prediction is expect a lot of chaos trying to nail down individual features. I think at the least we get a cold period similar in length and anomalies to what we had in mid January. Big question there being of course whether or not we can carry a more consistent colder than average pattern into the first couple weeks of March. If I had to put numbers out for March (which I will be in about a week) I currently am leaning colder than average March overall with some opportunities, but that may come with another warm period in the pattern towards the beginning of the month. Just throwing some initial thoughts out. 

    Ultimately,  I think things are still mostly on track with what I have personally posted about regarding the pattern this month. I expected a very warm front 10-14 days of the month since mid-late Jan and here we are. Near V-Day for a more favorable pattern was my target and the fact that we have a system in play a couple days prior is a bonus. 

    From my Jan 31st post on top of page 251:

    On 1/31/2024 at 5:56 PM, MAG5035 said:

    The reversal/tanking of the SOI continues to gain steam. The negative daily values the last few days are easily the most negative of the whole winter season. Much more in line of what is typically seen during Nino’s of stronger magnitude. 

     

    And as such, the MJO forecasts continue to look set up for an eventual 8-1-2 run after its loop around in 7 the next several days. Further aligning signals are the currently very positive NAO/AO reversing and eventually developing a stronger  +PNA and -EPO. Indications for a pattern shift to favor a more wintry regime in the eastern US later in Feb are strong. I said the other day I favored V-day onward for this to start talking hold and that’s about the consensus of most other folks that talk pattern here and in other sub forums. So I don’t really have much to add in that regard that hasn’t been already discussed and mapped out daily. 

    So with that said, I feel like people’s expectations and patience could be tested in the interim. The opening 10 to possibly up to 15 days of the month look really warm.. a necessary evil unfortunately as the trough starts west and eventually shifts to set up shop in the east near the end of the regular operational ensemble guidance range as we build more Greenland ridging in the NAO realm and Western US/E pac ridging in the PNA/EPO realm. Once the influence of whatever ends up spinning around the SE coast early next week moves away, there’s going to be a period of more significant ridging and + temps that take over for a time as a trough first sets up in the west and + heights are able to build the rest of the way into the East. Here’s how we look on the ensembles the next 14 days…

    Week 1, stupid warm in central Canada and the northern US

    image.thumb.png.c8bc0a598ecf80f579f9bb6774121d26.png

    Week 2, warmth centered more east with western trough

    image.thumb.png.211aa1ede7e61e3608bb9ce56cbd65e1.png

    I’m only going to D14 with these here, but when you use the full 15-16days in the ensembles, you can see those + anomalies start fading on those temp anomaly averages (I’m using 7 day average here)… as that’s the period where models are starting to indicate the pattern shift taking hold in the east.

    This pattern change is a matter of when and not if, IMO.. so what we’ll be trying to nail down the next week or so is how fast/slow this occurs. I think there’s still much TBD with respect to that, since the more wholesale shift is still mostly out past D10 on guidance. This change could even come faster, but it might not… which is why I mentioned it could test people’s patience/expectations. Especially if we line up a storm window within a few days either side of Valentine’s Day and we’re not quite there yet to give many folks a widespread snow event out of it, for example. So we’ll see.. I am certainly positive on the prospects of a good later season winter run, but keeping expectations in check

     

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  7. Euro has bumped it’s swath north the last couple runs, matching more of a GFS type swath. The difference being the Sus Valley when comparing GFS v Euro accums.. and GFS is def not my go to if I have to use a global to determine snowfall in the Sus Valley. Euro is probably a better representation of what’s going to happen snow wise with its solution at 12z. 

    12z vs 0z runs

    image.thumb.png.2c5c4fea8999f8fd80740e0c723aa615.png

    Stronger primary that pushes just a bit further north and keeps things aloft just a bit warmer. I’ve said or at least implied we don’t want to get this to being a longer period of rain to snow changeover event in the southern tier. It’s not the path to success for the Sus Valley with this (or even over here for that matter). Just commenting on the solutions at face value here. There’s not much of a consensus to be had for this cycle op wise. Cold NAM with forum wide snow, GFS/EURO with heaviest swath I-80 and north, UKMET with a southern slider that snows I-80 and south, Canadian with NOTHING, and der IKON so far north that plowable snow is NY border counties and north. 

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  8. 9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

    Asking for pawatch and I lol are we too far north or could we get okay totals?

    Nah you guys are looking pretty good right now, and I don’t anticipate p-type issues up that far. All guidance/ensembles not named the ICON (furthest north outlier by far currently) has Williamsport near or within the swath of best snows. Euro and GFS ops have had IPT getting 6”+ and GFS has been putting out double digits there the last several runs. 

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  9. 0z GFS coming in similar to 18z (and 12z). It may have shifted its 6” line like 10-20miles north in the Sus Valley from 18z, essentially back about to where it was at 12z. Focus on I-80 corridor on north for the axis of heaviest snows has been persistent with that op

    0z Canadian looks nice with snow shield placement on the southern 2/3 of PA. Still on the lower side QPF wise and a bit splotchy with its output on accums but it has come a pretty long way from where it was having a very weak system. 

    I started this post to comment on the NAM, but ended up commenting on the rest of early 0z guidance in the process. At any rate, NAM at range disclaimers aside… I have noted in the runs today that it seems to be on the colder side of guidance overall. Probably the coldest to be honest. I generally put heavier focus on the high res stuff for thermals (3k NAM, HRRR, etc) when things get in range to start using them. We start setting the boundary during Sunday, basically in the 48-60hr range at this point. So this is going to be really something to watch as we set this event up. The entire NAM column in PA is colder, but where it is especially so is up on the column at the 850 and 925mb level. 850 mb temp difference between NAM vs GFS is huge.

    81 hours, where the event is pretty well underway in C-PA (GFS timing a bit faster)

    image.thumb.png.d55e1fedd31dd6b760fb74af790d4e14.png

     

    Now look at the 850 temps for that frame.

    image.thumb.png.969051003b081f138fa5631bd1dbdbac.png

    Is the NAM onto something here? I’ll be curious to see if it holds onto anywhere near that cold of a profile as we get closer into range. Just a few degrees is going to make a big difference in this event, especially in the Sus Valley. Even a compromise of the thermal profiles between these two solutions likely get the subforum a decent event… and the GFS solution is still mostly a C-PA snow event anyways with the question mark of changeover delivering decent snows being the southern tier (turnpike corridor and south). The NAM at face value actually implies something that could be a notably >10:1 ratio event with the -8ºC 850mb isotherm deep into central/southern PA. I still feel in PA the heavy swath is a 6-10” type deal, but a NAM solution would be how double digit totals get introduced.

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  10. 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

    18z Euro looks to be a little further south than 12z. Know shortly for certain. 

    It’s a good run for sure, still snowing at 90hr in most of central/eastern PA too and quite heavily in the LSV.

    1hr snowfall at the 90hr frame:

    image.thumb.png.98b4a5965695d3a4507578708994f7d1.png

    Total snowfall thru 90hrs

    image.thumb.png.575487c04a0e001eb58308bf9af1c596.png

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  11. Here’s the NBM (National Blend of Models) for reference. Whenever it comes time for CTP to throw out an initial snow map, NBM is likely to factor a good bit into their map.  I think this particular blend actually looks solid for the time range we’re in (D3-4). We’ll see if it eventually starts matching up some of the bigger numbers the ops are throwing out. 

    image.thumb.png.e5722f413b9fe216f98755d9d0123ba0.png

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  12. 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    Wound up and farther north than the faster/less qpf solutions.  Razor thing temp profiles for the LSV.   Quite a bit of rain south of I81. 

     

    1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    The initial low in the 12z Euro gets to WV before the transfer to the coastal.

    Slight improvement on the Kuchera snow maps for Rouzerville, York & Harrisburg areas.

    Good run especially turnpike area on north.

     

    Yea it does present a longer period of rain in the Lower Sus Valley before progged changeover, a scenario I said yesterday would have a high potential to disappoint there. The southern third of PA seems to be on a pretty fine line with the guidance suite today with the last couple GFS runs edging up just a bit. Have to see how the Euro EPS looks in a bit in comparison to the GEFS. 6z Euro EPS looked pretty nice but had more of a central Sus Valley focus on the swath of best probs for >3”. Some pretty high totals on the ops, but I think this has a heaviest swath of 6-10” type potential with it (a bit more once towards New England). 

    Definitely need the rapidly strengthening coastal low and associated dynamics (obviously without the primary cutting up too far).  A weaker one probably isn’t going to get the job done in terms of initiating a meaningful changeover outside of the central/northern. 

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  13. Some positive moves back the other way by the models today. Certainly still some disparity. Canadian still largely uninterested (rain) but did come back towards the other guidance some. Last night at 0z it had the rain/snow line in the NE pretty much where the GFS had the northern edge of its snow shield, so we’re zeroing in a bit. I think the GFS/GEFS is a bit generous getting a pretty significant snowfall swath thru the Mid-Atlantic.

    Timing/position of the low transfer will be a big factor. Most guidance seems to suggest pretty robust strengthening of the coastal low, so those dynamics will help with cooling the column. Primary up into WV before the coastal takes over isn’t necessarily a bad evolution, but we’ll have marginal cold in place.. so I’m leery of LSV spots yet. Something closer to the colder overall GFS solution would be ideal, because I think a rain changing to snow scenario has a high potential to disappoint in Sus Valley spots. Obviously don’t want to drive the primary up too far either, because aside from initial warm air push you drive north the best precip when the precip shield sets up with the coastal transfer. 

    EC ensemble blend seemed to be the best middle ground for the 12z suite, which looked like this. 

    3”+ probs

    image.thumb.png.9153cc74a28da917e1aef50929bbcc46.png

    Individual members at MDT (24 hr snow)

    image.thumb.png.1b9d7dce12b8e2cae2eff036109a64fd.png

    EC ensemble multi-run trend since 0z Feb 4, 24hr snow mean (MDT) 

    image.thumb.png.af8c0b001d55d49ccf7ace8bbbf53607.png

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  14. 1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

    In 24 hours, Eps went from the top map to the bottom one. Remind me again what use the ensembles are.

    And we're supposed to believe the Extended Eps? Lol

    You have to dive into it deeper to get more meaningful use out of them. I utilize probabilities more at this range to try to get a rough idea on where the ensemble is focusing swath. Here’s the comparison between today (left) and 0z (right) with 24hr probs of 1”+. 

    image.thumb.png.0bda604f22112acec1493dab00f18218.png

    Both runs focused best probs on northern PA and esp interior upstate NY and northeast. The newer run really ramped up percentages while keeping the same general area of best probs because more individual members are starting to zero in on the swath. 

    The numbers on the means in the Mid-Atlantic region on the 0z run lose their luster with the probabilities. DC was getting its 2.2” mean despite only between 10-20% of its members showing an inch or more in 24 hrs. The mean is mainly driven by two members showing more than a foot and a few showing a decent snowfall. 

    0z

    image.thumb.png.fbf4b25873b47bfab4d879f1f74df52d.png

    Here’s 12z, lost some of the members showing a more moderate snowfall and the two outliers that showed big numbers are showing nothing now. 

    image.thumb.png.6478343171480db3871a30d6202ad2d9.png

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  15. 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Sizzling off the press from Elliott:

    Looking ahead into next week and the second half of February, there continue to be signs of a large-scale pattern change. However, the magnitude and duration of that pattern change remain rather uncertain. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).. or an eastward-moving wave of convection between the Indian and western Pacific Oceans.. is currently in phase 7 but should finally progress into phase 8 around Valentine's Day. In stark contrast to phase 7, MJO activity in phase 8 favors colder and stormier weather in the mid-Atlantic States. There is often a 1-week lag effect with MJO forcing across eastern North America, so the brunt of the colder air may not arrive until February 17th-20th. Additionally, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV), or band of westerly winds enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air that develops 10-30 miles above the ground over the Arctic Circle every winter, may weaken during the second half of the month and get "dislodged" off the North Pole. A strong SPV is often associated with weaker storm systems and a zonal, or less wavy, Jet Stream pattern, but an unstable SPV can sometimes precede cold air outbreaks and signal a stormier weather pattern across central and/or eastern North America 1-2 weeks later. However, this is not always the case, and the cold air can just as easily dump into Europe or Siberia.

    Despite the uncertainties, there should be at least one or two more opportunities for a significant (3"+) snowstorm between February 15th and March 5th. I'm also keeping an eye on a potential storm system next Monday into Tuesday, but the air mass to its north will probably not yet be cold enough for snow in the I-81 or I-95 corridors. There won't be a source of cold air over northern New England and southeastern Canada, and the system could easily just slide across the southeastern United States and out to sea. Needless to say, I'm not impressed by this "thread-the-needle" opportunity for snow. At this point, the most likely scenario is for Monday to turn out partly-to-mostly cloudy and still quite mild with highs in the 40s to perhaps 50°F. There's still time for things to change, but I advise winter-weather fans to keep their expectations low. Check back on Thursday or Friday for an update! Oh, and as I mentioned on Friday, a warmer weather pattern should return during the second week of March due to the progression of several different large-scale features. Spring officially begins on March 19th, but it may arrive 10-14 days early this year. The clock is ticking for snow-lovers.. -- Elliott

    I can get on board with most of that, except the last couple sentences. Gonna have to respectfully disagree with that particular assessment for the time being. I look at that longer range guidance and don’t see much support for a wholesale shift to early spring in that timeframe. Extended stuff (GEFS Extended and Euro Weeklies) are pretty firm on maintaining -NAO/AO/EPO and +PNA throughout. MJO could eventually run the 8-1-2 phases, though I think models are still feeling that out.  That alone is plenty of evidence to the contrary as things look at this point. His mention of a late stratwarm is actually on the model guidance (both Euro and GFS) beginning in earnest mid-month and stretching/dislodging the SPV. GFS op managed to actually split the SPV out in the D10-15 timeframe. Stratwarm events are hardly a sure thing, but given the lag time typically involved with one occurring, propagating downward and seeing arctic air dislodged etc…spring probably wouldn’t be springing much on or around march 10th if the arctic were to release toward the CONUS. 

    So yea, if we’re talking early spring.. the next few days or so could be the best example of such. I’ve been putting in temp numbers for the forecast competition thing WeatherBell has been doing. Temp forecasts for the next month have to be submitted by the 20th. This was what I settled on for February back on Jan 20. If one thinks that seems warm in the north and northeast, you should see the current departures to date. Minneapolis is 18.9ºF above normal for the month so far as of today. Pitt is 10.5ºF. It better get cold second half of the month haha. 

    2104977306_FebForecast.thumb.png.70330a5575734937d05c657e7037a1b2.png

     

    • Like 2
  16. 18 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    To be fair, the climate of Pittsburgh and areas nearby, with a small exception to upslope areas, are basically Kentucky climate-wise. It probably is spring there lol.

    Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
     

    No spring fling on this side of the mountains today haha, it’s only 33ºF and cloudy currently after reaching 36ºF earlier. 

  17. On 2/3/2024 at 9:46 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

    @MAG5035 what are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern change potential?

    I maintain my same general outlook on things that I laid out last Wednesday evening.

    On 1/31/2024 at 5:56 PM, MAG5035 said:

    The reversal/tanking of the SOI continues to gain steam. The negative daily values the last few days are easily the most negative of the whole winter season. Much more in line of what is typically seen during Nino’s of stronger magnitude. 

    And as such, the MJO forecasts continue to look set up for an eventual 8-1-2 run after its loop around in 7 the next several days. Further aligning signals are the currently very positive NAO/AO reversing and eventually developing a stronger  +PNA and -EPO. Indications for a pattern shift to favor a more wintry regime in the eastern US later in Feb are strong. I said the other day I favored V-day onward for this to start talking hold and that’s about the consensus of most other folks that talk pattern here and in other sub forums. So I don’t really have much to add in that regard that hasn’t been already discussed and mapped out daily. 

    So with that said, I feel like people’s expectations and patience could be tested in the interim. The opening 10 to possibly up to 15 days of the month look really warm.. a necessary evil unfortunately as the trough starts west and eventually shifts to set up shop in the east near the end of the regular operational ensemble guidance range as we build more Greenland ridging in the NAO realm and Western US/E pac ridging in the PNA/EPO realm. Once the influence of whatever ends up spinning around the SE coast early next week moves away, there’s going to be a period of more significant ridging and + temps that take over for a time as a trough first sets up in the west and + heights are able to build the rest of the way into the East. Here’s how we look on the ensembles the next 14 days…

    This pattern change is a matter of when and not if, IMO.. so what we’ll be trying to nail down the next week or so is how fast/slow this occurs. I think there’s still much TBD with respect to that, since the more wholesale shift is still mostly out past D10 on guidance. This change could even come faster, but it might not… which is why I mentioned it could test people’s patience/expectations. Especially if we line up a storm window within a few days either side of Valentine’s Day and we’re not quite there yet to give many folks a widespread snow event out of it, for example. So we’ll see.. I am certainly positive on the prospects of a good later season winter run, but keeping expectations in check. 

    Now that we’re about 5 days onward from this previous post, the regular op and ensemble guidance is seeing the transition in terms of teleconnections (tanking NAO/AO/EPO) but I don’t think they’re anywhere near handling features, which is likely why we’re seeing a lot of run to run discontinuity. Something storm wise is probably going to come out of that period centered on V-Day. Whether or not we have the pattern dialed in cold enough in time for that particular window to snow on us is highly debatable. There’s also multiple disturbances in that timeframe as well for guidance to decipher. The system progged to cut up and over us at the end of this week on/near the 10th would figure to set some kind of edge that the follow-up that has occasionally been progged as a snowstorm in C-PA would run. 12z Euro cut another, stronger system prior to V-day but would appear to have another wave at 240 angled fairly well to give us something decent beyond. But I guess that’s also a key point, we’re still talking D8-10+. 

    Another thing I don’t think the regular operational/ensemble guidance is handling well yet is the transitioning MJO. Given the even further bottoming out of the SOI, we may not experience as much of a loop back in 7 and could eventually go stronger into 8 and 1 even though models aren’t really doing that right now. Not sure how the actual MJO progression is going the last couple days either, as something seems up with the MJO site (models aren’t updated past the 3rd). There’s much to be sorted out, and I’m just taking an along for the ride approach in the interim… not getting too high or low on run to run model trends.  I’m not completely all in like some (or all out), but I’m confident we will see the transition to a favorable eastern US winter pattern down the stretch and there will be opportunities to be had. 

    • Like 4
  18. 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

    The Canadian still beating the drum on some BN lows and highs next week. 

    Whether the colder Canadian ends up being right or not, this weekend thru about Wed or Thurs night looks fairly clear and we should see more typical diurnal temp ranges, with lows closer to average or perhaps slightly below (esp in the wake of the departing coastal). High temps trend more above average the later in the week one goes next week. Having more typical low temps should dampen overall + departures some. 

  19. 38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    Into the month of February and Nashville has more snow than Minneapolis. Hmmm. 

    43-63” on the Mammoth Mountain point and click thru Sun Night and more heavy snow beyond that next week. Guess those webcams will be the best snow fix we can get during what looks like a dry and mild upcoming week here in PA. 

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