MAG5035

1 hour ago, basehore said:

Wow this non stop nw sprint is getting unreal.  Hopefully the late night run stops it.  If not this could be a Detroit special and we move on to Thursday looking for white gold and not ice.  

Yea it's not going to get that far over, it's too cold there lol.

However, pretty much all guidance has moved to running this surface low up the west side of the Apps basically up to SW PA before it shows any signs of jumping to the coast. That's not going to cut it, we need this to stay under PA. Really the only difference this makes for central PA is it just makes thing's icier (more freezing rain) since there is enough of a CAD setup to hang in surface temps near or below freezing over all the area for a good portion of the event before maybe spiking above freezing into the LSV below the turnpike right at the end. This is going to affect the northern tier's snow accumulation's some as the mixing is likely going to drive pretty far into northern PA now with a track like that. Still should be a half decent snowfall up there though. A stripe somewhere in the central counties is probably going to see a decent sleet accumulation  (1-2") where somewhat deeper cold likes to stay anchored. The silver lining? The majority of the main wave of precip associated with the surface low Monday night is out of the area in about 10hrs or so. Then we can focus in on the next incoming mess Thursday. 

Speaking of AFD updates haha.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 pm update... Overall, a northwestward shift in the cyclone
track for the early week winter storm has continued with today`s
model runs. The consequences for this across Central PA are
somewhat less snowfall, but a higher freezing rain risk for
areas near and just south of I-78 and US-22.

A shot of mostly light snow still looks to move across the
Commonwealth Monday morning to early afternoon, but with the
bulk of the steadier/heavier precipitation holding off until
later in the day and at night. Strong low to mid-level jets will
bring in much deeper moisture tomorrow night, along with
significant warming above the boundary layer. Closer to the
PA/NY border, thermal profiles still support mostly snow, with
perhaps a brief wintry mix in the pre-dawn early Tuesday. Thus,
we felt comfortable with a Winter Storm Warning for the northern
tier, with generally 6-9" of snow foreseen. Farther south,
initial snow will go over to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing
rain, with a likely change over to rain for a time in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

The primary uncertainties involve sleet vs. freezing rain and
how much ice accretion can thus take place over some of our
southern counties. At this time, we felt the course of least
regret was to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the potential for
localized ice accretions GTE 0.25" from the Laurel Highlands,
northeast to just north of Harrisburg, then over towards the
southern Poconos (Lebanon and Schuylkill counties). A strong
ageostrophic northerly flow and fairly cold air perched just to
our north and northeast will make it difficult for surface
readings to go above freezing in some locales across the Watch
area.

For all unmentioned locations, a Winter Weather Advisory seems
in order, for a general 2-6" of snow, along with a
sleet/freezing rain mix for a time Monday night.

Steadier precipitation should begin to wind down from southwest
to northeast, as a mid-level dry slot rotates overhead towards
daybreak Tuesday.

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Update lol 

Yup lol just saw. It does make sense since there's still time to review more guidance tonight ahead of this. Saw Mount Holly go right to warnings for half their CWA and figured CTP was about to do the same. So watches on a swath of south-central PA for the heightened ice concern (possible areas of .25"+). Some of the central/north central watch counties plus the non watch counties to advisory for more mixing eating into snow totals and likely more of a sleet event over ZR for the mix type. 

Also, I understand the LSV folks kind of tuning this out for the Thursday one but this next one starting well, tomorrow is still going to get everyone in here with at least a fairly high impact advisory level winter storm. 

Ice storm warnings up for bordering counties over in Mount Holly CWA all the way down to Lancaster. This going to be another event CTP goes straight to warnings for a bunch of counties?

40 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Does anyone know when the last time the ENTIRE state of Texas was under a Winter Storm Warning at the same time?

 

Probably never. That is a gigantic expanse of the southern US under winter storm warnings. And those wind chill warnings that cover pretty much the entire north central US also are including a large portion of those winter storm warned counties. Def a historic and wide reaching arctic air outbreak. 

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm.

#itshappeningthursday

Only real big difference is the more robust high pressure progged to our north and NE for Thursday (and overall in the rest of the CONUS. That was the kind of high pressure models had north of us for Mon/Tues a few days ago whenever it was looking mostly snowy in PA. Helps deflect the surface low to the coast in time and at worst anchors a CAD wedge if the low tries to work up the other side of the Apps. Going to be extremely important to maintain that, because Thursday's storm could easily do the same thing the next one up seems destined to do, especially in the LSV. 

Mon/Tues storm arrival:

Thursday storm arrival:

CTP's latest update on Mon/Tues. I'd be ecstatic with that clean of a storm and 4-6"...but personally expecting a much messier outcome. I'm always a proponent of the cold hanging in better in C-PA than modeled, especially in the interior counties.. but CTP is really bullish inside the area boxed in by I-80 and the turnpike (N-S) and US 219 & US 11/15 (E-W).

That area in particular is going to be the hardest to forecast, and clearly CTP is favoring a colder column and perhaps factoring climo in with the track. 12z Euro still the coldest aloft while having the most expansive freezing rain, which I still don't get how the p-types get ZR out of a large portion of the interior central showing solidly below zero at 925 and surface.. and even 850. Issue is, column also warms between 850mb all the way up to 700mb in this zone at least briefly with 700 temps right around 0ºC or slightly above in roughly the eastern half of PA on some guidance. So I think even if the mostly frozen precip did happen here that it could be more sleet than snow, which would easily knock those bullish totals down. 

Otherwise, my main points from last night's post are pretty much unchanged. I personally think CTP should consider watches for some south central counties (all current non-watch counties NW of Franklin/Perry counties as that would be the region with the best chance to achieve a stripe of .25"+ ice in the very possible event that we get more of a freezing rain/sleet deal vs the more snow/sleet event being portrayed there in CTP's forecast. 

As for conditions here it's still 23ºF with a solid freezing drizzle and some occasional snow grains. Untreated stuff is starting to get a really nasty thin glaze on it. 

Yea the 0z guidance generally did not help the cause for more frozen precip further southeast in PA tonight. Models trended tighter to the apps tonight with the NAM actually taking the low right through western PA and the Euro getting underneath but showing reflection up into WV on the west side of the apps. GFS is mostly SE of PA but def edged tighter. Having the surface low really close isn't going to cut it here and obviously we're cooked if the NAM was actually right. My argument for a more frozen outcome than being modeled is heavily dependent on the low pressure actually staying SE of PA with some room to spare. That would allow a fighting chance for the surface cold air to bleed into PA more and also a SE track would imply the thermal boundaries aloft are shifted SE as well to where it favors more frozen. Already mentioned about the high earlier with how the portion that stretches north of us across Ontario/Quebec seems weaker and also a bit further north than a couple days ago. This was one of the keys for holding the cold air east of the mountains and helping keep the low SE. Should note that Euro looks the strongest of the models with that particular feature. 

I would consider the runs at least thru 12z (and probably thru 0z) to see where we're at today and also to have a good look at where this initial wave of precip running up Sunday night is going to be placed before making any rash decisions. But in light of how things look tonight this is shifting towards these main things as it stands. 1- How much ice does the LSV (SE of I-81) see before a potential change to rain. 2 - What the dominant mix type (freezing rain vs sleet) is going to be in the portion of central PA NW of I-81 including places like IPT, UNV, AOO, JST, Carlisle, Bedford, etc. and if some snow can still occur (more possible the further NW one goes).  And 3 - How much potential mixing cuts into the more predominant snow potential for the rest of the north-central and NW portion of C-PA (NW of IPT over to Clearfield, St Mary's, Bradford, etc). 

This still has time to shift back the other way to some degree and the position of the cold air boundary is going to be extremely important, especially with how well the models represent it. This low is basically going to ride this baroclinic zone and it's not going to be something that easily yanks the cold air east towards a rapidly deepening surface low in time. 

4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Thursday's storm on the 18Z GFS is pretty depressing.  No snow, a little sleet, a few tenths of freezing rain, then a lot of plain rain with temps shooting up to 50.  Then what's left of the arctic air finally passes through here later Friday into next weekend, but by that time all our snow has washed away (especially LSV), and maybe even further north.  I'd love to say that it's still 5 days away and there's plenty of time for it to change.  But with the eastern side of the trough to our west I can see how the storm would come up west of PA.  I'm not giving up just yet.

Thursday was actually the one I was more worried about cutting/p-type issues vs the current upcoming Mon/Tues event . The current system is occurring in the middle of a seismic shift of the NAO and AO neutralizing and possibly going somewhat positive from being like -4 and -6 respectively. With the EPO/WPO tending positive, PNA trending positive, and no intense NAO blocking to counter...our luck is probably going to run out soon with our nice run with a lack of major cutters. 

Been busy and mostly away from the computer good part of the day. Was a nice freezing drizzly 21-23ºF here today.

I'm still not really sure what to make of the precip type situation with this. It seems like models have weakened the portion of the high pressure stretching north of us over to Quebec to a degree. Really been making this more of a straight-up gradient vs much of a traditional CAD wedge with Western/NW PA in a much better situation than the LSV or even the central counties below I-80 currently. Track of the surface low continuing to be mostly under us would figure to support more frozen. Kind of suspect about GFS and NAM pretty much routing sub-freezing surface temps out of all the Sus Valley. Euro is simultaneously the coldest column and iciest outcome freezing rain wise. I don't understand why it's still printing out such a big stripe of ZR, especially in the central counties. KAOO at -4ºC surface, -5ºC 925mb, and -1ºC 850mb at Hr 66 after 0.3" of ZR from 60-66 is not a ZR profile, no way. At least the thermals on the warmer models make a bit more sense vs the p-type. 

C-PA is right smack in the middle of the baroclinic zone and potential transition zones and determining where everything's going to setup is very difficult at this point. I still lean to the colder end of the spectrum and it definitely appears that CTP does too. Just something about that low tracking SE of the region with plenty of surface to try to press and bleed in. However, the aforementioned high pressure appearing a bit weaker on the end of the "banana" that stretches over to Quebec would seemingly limit driving down a CAD wedge east of the mountains to hold in the LSV SE of I-81 later in the event. On the other hand, models like to underestimate the CAD.  Going to have to monitor how temps go tomorrow and how that front running wave of precip tracks Sun night into Monday ahead of the main wave to get a better lock on the positioning of the temp gradient.

5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

To me, and as a number of you have mentioned, by far the biggest story of the pattern is the inability of the truly arctic air centered over the central part of the country to bleed its way east.  I mean, considering what all the models were advertising for most of the past week it's pretty stunning to see where things are heading.  Disappointing really, as I was looking forward to some icebox temps, to say nothing of the fact that snow is likely off the table for most of the LSV now as well.  Not giving up yet but trends are less than ideal.

I'll gladly take the milder temps and active storm track we have right now over having the extreme cold. Especially since we are still cold enough to mostly maintain the pack that's on the ground. We've had conflicting signals via the teleconnections for a lot of this exceptional NAO/AO blocking period with a mostly -PNA and a solid MJO magnitude that's been floating in the Phase 6-7 region. (currently 7) 

Want to know what they usually translate to, especially in 6? Not going to get into a whole thing and stat lesson on the significance % maps but regions in that blue or purple shows high correlation to the temperature pattern. That's why phases 4-6 are frowned upon greatly in the eastern US, esp during a Nina. Phase 7 is a warm phase in the east too, but not as strongly. But the gradient pattern we're in and the arctic air not completely dropping in to the east makes alot of sense when this is considered. I think it's a blessing in disguise personally. You don't have such strong NAO/AO blocking then you guys are talking about still having the AC on. You don't have the conflicting MJO signal and it's conceivable its frigid in PA and we're lamenting DC and VA getting all the snow. And I guarantee you guys wouldn't be so disappointed we're missing out on it being -10 if that happened. 

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Never like seeing the cold and snow down into Texas like that. Usually does not work out well for us..

Yea, I've been considering that aspect. Typically an amplification as major as one taking extreme winter weather pretty much to old Mexico and the Gulf Coast generally wouldn't bode well for us in the eastern US but we still have the sprawling high pressure and the cold air to the north and the low attacking it from the Gulf. Majority of guidance and ensembles keep this surface low below us, initially on the west side of the Apps in the SE but eventually going to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Not a wound up deep low either. So this is definitely looking like a pretty high impact winter storm for C-PA, but details on P-type are anyone's guess really at this point. I still personally prefer more frozen (snow/sleet) solutions, like the GFS. Should note there is a huge difference in surface temps GFS vs Euro (8-10ºF) during the height of this. Even with that, I don't really buy the Euro's expansive ZR, especially outside of the southern tier where the column would suggest sleet more than ZR.  

Why do I prefer the colder solutions? Despite the core of the arctic air not pushing into our region, it slides east across Ontario and Quebec with that sprawling high pressure. So I think surface/low level cold is going to bleed down into PA pretty efficiently, especially with the majority of guidance keeping the surface low underneath us. It seems that 700-850mb zone is most likely region this busts above 0ºC and that's high enough in the column that i'd be considering sleet as predominant mix over ZR, although there's going to be a stripe of more significant ZR to deal with somewhere as well.. and our southern tier near the Mason-Dixon is a place to watch for that possibility . 

Just measured 3.4", with some lingering light snow still falling. 

Lol @MillvilleWx might win "coldest snowstorm of the winter" down there in Midland, TX with the storm that becomes our Tuesday event. Yes those temps are in ºF

1 minute ago, Cambria County Wx said:

Snow has ended here. Looks like about 1.5 maybe a little more. Just missed the best snows by about 5-10 miles. 

Looked like that upper band of snow is still over Northern Cambria on radar, not getting anything?

Right at 3" with snow lightened up. 

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The GFS on Tuesday takes the low from North Carolina to off of the coast of the DelMarVa. With all of the High pressure to the north & west that is supplying Arctic air, this should trend to a colder look with at least a very solid front end thump of snow & then mixing for some areas depending on the final track.

 

Yea even though this still looks mixy you can see tonight's run gets the low to the coast under us and with that banana high to the north it def favors deeper cold and a more frozen outcome. 

24 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Radar looks good for you.  Mag should be S+ now

It's been crushing pretty good for a little while though starting to get on the edge of the best stuff. Glance at the snowboard out in the yard from inside using binoculars with the lights on looks like almost 3". How much back building happens is likely going to determine if I can get into the 4-6" forecasted range. 

This is the type of enhanced stuff the next few hours that's either going to get us to our forecast totals or not, which should eventually push into the LSV. It's coming down pretty heavily now here. 

Just now, 2001kx said:

What are you using for radar? Radarscope?

Yep Radarscope. 

Starting to see the bigger flake size with the enhancement showing on radar. 

Got moderate snow and getting pretty close to an inch so far. Temps back to 25ºF

Steady light snow now, pretty grainy. 29ºF

Some light snow starting, temps around freezing.