BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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5 BIG BOOOOMS . -
Drastic improvements for the 18z Euro
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I will say - this fits the typical footprint of a southern slider
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Positive note: Euro AI which has been the steady hand so far, ticked up in precip. Widespread 4-6” amounts for NC.
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Major downtrend in QPF on the NAM from 12 to 18z
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Shout out to Ohio and Indiana for doing better with a southern slider than half of the south!
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Unfortunately it shreds again
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Tenn is getting an absolute thumping this run
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Winter storm watch hoisted…a good little tease but maybe a glimmer of optimism? I was expecting we’d skip the watch stage and go straight into an advisory.
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Said in the disco that amounts likely won’t meet Warning criteria so they’re holding off for now.
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I’m genuinely happy for you guys. SW NC, especially the valleys have been in the screw zone for quite some time.
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Euro is slightly improved
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@wncsnow you called this out days ago but the more you look at short range modeling, the more you have to wonder if we’re drier because things are fizzling out or if it’s actually just robust convection near the gulf coast robbing moisture transport
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Could be a good sign coming with the Euro
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It did indeed. Also nailed this past weekend’s event. It was the only model to show the burst of snow that impacted N NC.
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If we’re searching for a win, the GRAF is colder + more moisture
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The HRRR absolutely cooked with the 2022 storm. Pretty much the only short range model that jumped on the bandwagon for the front end thump first.
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It really is. From the moisture going poof to the thermals. It just has an absolute textbook look for CAD regions at that hour. I can’t recall if I’ve ever seen anything like it. I’ve seen plenty of moisture robbed/mixing issue storms but not with a storm that well organized and thumping that hard just to the west. It used to be that if you saw Ark - upper mid south getting hit that hard, you better get your shovels ready.
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Man if I saw this surface map with zero context, I’d say WNC is about to get 6+ .
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RGEM vs everybody
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Very similar to the NAM
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It’d be absolutely hilarious for the GFS and Euro to come in with big hits
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I’m desperately in need of some happy hour fun! (I’m talking about drinking by the way)
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@GaWx do you recall how the RGEM performed with Sunday’s setup? I vaguely remember it doing well.
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There’s a non zero chance folks in NC can stop tracking by 0Z
