BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Same here. All perspective too. I consider anything that completely buries the grass blades to be major around here. With that said, I’m not above mowing the day before because I’m a real sicko.
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Don’t let the surface output on the first storm distract from the fact that we ticked west again upstream.
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Fine with the 18z runs so far.
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18z gfs isn’t going to cut it on system 1, but the energy did tick west quite a bit
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Yea I don’t get worrying about any surface output at this point. At 500mb we’re very close to something memorable and large with both storms. I’d be worried if clown maps were pasting me this many days out.
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2.61” of rain. We’ve had dry conditions before this but I’m modestly worried it’ll be enough to loosen up tree roots before tomorrows wind.
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On the second wave, the Ukie looked like it was about to unload. We really need the energy to dig further southwest. Dropping through Missouri isn’t super favorable for the southeast. It works for the mid Atlantic but I’d like to get to a final solution that bottoms out somewhere near Louisiana.
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Still many days to go and a lot of wiggle room to go with it. Only one piece of energy is on land right now and even that piece is over Alaska. .
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Weird evolution on system 2 from the euro
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Does the mid-south even know what it’s like to lose?
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BRICK
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I’ve spent my whole life convinced 3.5” is enough and adequate, so I wouldn’t complain a bit. I’d say that’s an above average amount myself!!
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Keep Pounding
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12z will bring glory, don’t fret
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Please remember to keep your hands inside the roller coaster at all times
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I wouldn’t be shocked if we trend firmly towards the first event not delivering soon and the models really hone in on system 2. There’s definitely a path for storm 1, but my thinking: Current mess outside - initiates the changes we need late weekend. Pattern becomes more favorable. Storm 1 - lays out the plates, fine china and silverware. Establishes cold profiles and makes way for storm 2. Storm 2 - Delivery
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Healthy uptick in the mean for the euro ensembles
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Healthy looking bowling ball
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Someone more intelligent than me would have to confirm but with 0z on top and 12z below, we gained more west Atlantic ridging. You can see the pressure it puts on the energy and nudges it too far west. The low it spawns cuts with it. .
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Who’s having fun?!
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Admittedly jumped the gun but our 500mb look was great at this range
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Storm 2 doesn’t quite deliver but as @wncsnowsaid, the pieces are there. Plenty to be excited about after that 12z suite.
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Biggest issue with storm one on the euro is a partial/very late phase. She’s going off to do important work in establishing the cold for storm 2 though.
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Shockingly good agreement on storm 1 at this range from the euro and gfs at least upstairs
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Well now hold on. The euro is absolutely not rain on storm 2. The 500mb setup is a major winter storm. Waiting on the surface maps to load.
