SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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Oh okay I didn’t know that. I had seen some others share links to his blog this week was the only reason I had read that last night.
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Stronger cold push over 6z. Dewpoints, 850s, and surface all colder.
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Cranky weather guy from twitter mentioned this in his blog yesterday saying that the storm was late to bloom but not late to track. Basically that what was happening out west wouldn’t translate directly to the east coast and in fact he said there might be an inverse reaction where things are wetter over here than expected. But things went south over there not because of more suppression or the low forming way south, but simply because cyclogenesis was later than initially modeled.
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Chris Justus mentioned this in his live video earlier that he was not buying the temps on the backside of the storm on the Euro. Said he didn't understand why the temps weren't crashing with the flip to a North wind and the ULL feature moving in too.
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For Western NC, NGA and the Northern Upstate the Fv3 and Euro are remarkably similar with their Kuchera totals. Euro slightly lower maximas but the placement of them are nearly identical.
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Snowline pushing much further south and west than the last run at 54
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You can see that trend south here but the resolution isn't as high as it is on WxBell so the details are a little off in places such as the higher totals near the escarpment that are apparent on the other site.
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I'm viewing on WxBell so I'm not sure about the rules on me sharing that but I will say for your location your mean is probably around a foot maybe a little more on that run. Compare that to the last run where it was probably 9 or so and then even better if you consider how far north the 12z run went when that areas mean dropped all the way to around 5-6. So a pretty substatial trend south over the last 2 GEFS runs.
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GEFS mean snowfall came south again, and put slightly higher totals in western NC around Asheville and surrounding areas.
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Warm nose will almost definitely be more extensive than on global models. But I’d also say with the NAM now trending better with high placement and a little more cold that especially for areas further west it may not yet have a complete handle on exactly how the CAD is going to play out. So I think there’s going to be some give and take as we move forward on NAM runs, warm nose is absolutely going to rob some places while others may improve if the wedge keeps showing up better on further runs.
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High placement looked much improved, especially over that ghastly 12z run. Not perfect but 2 small steps in the right direction since that run.
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NAM is definitely way colder a than 850 at least at hr 45. Let’s see how it goes
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Yeah that honestly makes a lot of sense. WPC might want to take a look at changing that though. Definitely unsuitable for public consumption in that state. Then again I’m sure the messiness and duration of this storm make it much worse than it normally is.
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Mets on twitter are absolutely bashing GSP for this ridiculous basically unreadable graphic lol
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Well if the NAM is right we are absolutely getting crippled with ZR as much as 1.7 inches in places. So at this point we better hope we can escape with a bunch of sleet.
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From what I've read from mets out there this has been due to a weaker system over all and not the temps which is gonna be our problem.
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Well Chris Justus definitely isn't agreeing with GSP on his live video right now.
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Egh.... That is huge.... Well I'm officially concerned now.
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I think they are definitely going to have to consider it because the Euro definitely shows 35 plus for much more than 3 hours.
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Well this is GSP's hourly forecast for Charlotte so, if there is snow and ice on trees, then yes I'd be somewhat concerned with gusty winds. W
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Crazy wind gusts on that last run through North GA and Western NC Mountains 30-40 with occasionally 50+. Definitely looking at near blizzard conditions in a lot of areas if that comes to fruition.
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Much better run with the mid level temps than last nights Euro, which I thought looked weird with how they were handled then, especially with the lack of cold in the ULL feature.
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I would agree but the big reason for the differences isn't really because of a warm nose from the south. It's because the initial air mass is significantly warmer because of the high placement and timing.
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Going through the individual members most aren't that bad mainly some very minimal reductions in qpf. But there are a few really low outliers that may be skewing the means a bit too far.
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Looks like its more because of a drop in qpf than anything else, and we know typically the nothern portion of the precip shield is more expansive than modeled.
