TPAwx

Ok now GFS

Probably an H storm so for sure a miss in TB. We only take I storms seriously.

Farewell and adieu to you fair Spanish ladies…. Kidding aside, this member is a slightly less intense version of the scenario that takes out parts of the TB region.

Interesting data. Not only has Tampa avoided a major since 1921, we haven’t experienced sustained hurricane force winds since 1946. https://x.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1829345028109410766

Gotta say for MBY Debbie had notably prolific banding and rainfall rates compared to recent tropical systems. TPA officially ended up close to 7”. We were under training for long stretches. Would add a few inches for our total.

Waterspout coming onshore

103 years since the last major landfall. We’ve had decaying tropical storms push significant surge and impact, the next major on the worst case trajectory/location will be a nightmare for the region.

In between bands at the moment. No gauge but we’ve easily had over 2” so far. Coverage should pick up later today and overnight.

12z GFS op slightly east for landfall Mon AM

Starting up here in South Tampa. Impressive rainfall rates in this band.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Yah it had a different feel. Very heavy downpour and stiff breeze.

Too much track and intensity uncertainty to give advice with confidence. Wouldn't want to be there, especially with family or little ones, if the track holds and the systems taps into toasty water temps more than modeled. Some degree of surge or flooding is likely even with a low-end TS on that heading.

Could be a sneaky surprise for those of us near the bays in Hillsborough and Pinellas. A strengthening TS on that trajectory can bring a lot of flooding and impact to the usual areas. My guess is the center curves inland under the bay and we miss the worst.

Charge up brother.

Super intense line passed thru. Summer-like downpour.

Appears y’all have moved on to crabbing season. Last measurable snow here 47 years ago next Friday. Glass half full and such.

Got a JD, passed the bar, and became partner since this system emerged off Africa.

~175 mile average track error at 120h

Fantastic synoptic set-up to keep this monster away from a direct US impact. Love it!!

Lots of beautiful spots up the Nature Coast in serious trouble today.

So the 4-7 for TB includes +1-2 from king tide

GFS has landfall near Dog Island Wednesday morning

TS Eta gave us 4ft, the steps go down to a sidewalk and four traffic lanes and another sidewalk before the white barrier. Idalia will be on top of an enhanced full moon high tide at a likely Cat 3 intensity. The 4-7 surge forecast could end up a bit higher.