TPAwx

Down to 907. Forecast track slight adjustment north. Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES

Landfall at Holmes Beach/Bradenton Beach late Wednesday PM, first run south of TB. 950s.

EPS mean track over Longboat Key late Thursday morning

GEFS tracks

I think that’s a pretty good call. AMI, Longboat and Siesta were devastated by Helene and this will takeout a lot of what’s left. I’m thinking landfall is a bit further south between Bradenton Beach and Siesta Key. Tho will be watching HAFS-B intently, it’s been persistent with TB landfall.

12z GFS landfall Holmes Beach early Thursday AM. High 950s.

6z HAFs-B landfall near Indian Rocks Beach. IMBY it’s massive surge from ground level and big oaks on the roof from the NE eyewall.

6z GFS over TB and MBY early AM Thursday. Appears to approach from southern end/Anna Maria Island.

6z ICON landfall between panels, appears to be around Anna Maria Island Thursday AM

0z GEFS and EPS tracks

GEFS mean south of TB. Significantly so from 6z.

The 6z was tough to wake up to today. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

GFS landfall Anna Maria Island. South of 18z. Brutal for longboat Key, Sarasota, Siesta Key. Impacts down to Port Charlotte. Shift doesn’t look like much on the plot but it matters for Tampa.

ICON landfall just south of TB early AM Thursday. 960s Relocated from one block from Hillsborough Bay in South Tampa to a nondescript hotel in Lutz.

HAFS-B landfalls early Thursday AM at Ft DeSoto/St Pete. 963 Heading out to evacuate inland. Really appreciate the pros and advanced hobbyists that have and are providing analysis and explanations in a digestible and fact-based way. It's been really helpful to understand and plan for Milton. Best of luck to all in the path, get out of the way and be safe.

18z GFS is over TB early AM Thursday. Landfall position is south of 12z.

South of TB, similar placement as 12z Euro.

Not surprised, and assume it could go higher in the segment just south of landfall. For a Pinellas or Pasco County landfall north of TB, the downtown corridor of the City of Tampa itself will be severely impacted, from the surge and flow from the Hillsborough River.

EPS mean appears to stay south of TB. Panel resolution not great but it’s definately on the southern side.

12z Euro a bit north and mostly aligned with hurricane model landfalls. Devastating outcome for TB and south.

With a Cat 5+ surge.

Wow that GFS op run is brutal not only for TB but up the Nature Coast and inland.

GFS off Clearwater late Wednesday 955.

12z models rolling out. ICON approaching TB landfall Wed evening at 966

NHC track shifted north, right over TB. Not the update I wanted for MBY, but is what it is.