TPAwx

it would be devastating. To preface, much of the area has minor but disruptive flooding with heavy summer t-storms. That much rain has no place to go. The city/metro has extremely dense vegetation and tree cover (one research outfit rated Tampa the #1 city in the world for tree cover). We obviously have tall palm trees but we have a lot of huge oaks. Massive amounts of trees and branches would come down on properties and streets, power outages would be extensive. All that falling and standing water would do a number on structures. With that stall easterly fetch would also push a ton of water around and carve up east facing shoreline. I'm not a hydrologist so I'm sure there's plenty of other impacts on infrastructure and public health. Overall, a sub-optimal amount of rain and scenario.

Hard pass.

The scenarios are not equally devastating. TB/Hillsborough/Pinelllas County have a much higher degree of population/property/economic exposure and risk than Sarasota or Fort Myers. It’s easily accessible data and research.

GFS coming in tight to coast earlier, would drive higher surge across TB

Perhaps the UK hooked onto the late stage evolution from early stages and this goes inland south of TB.

Local surge watch was initialized at 5-8 and then updated to 7-10. With the GFS and Euro scenarios it would be higher in some locations.

Reminds me of the NAM runs when I lived in NOVA that would spit out 50 inches of snow. Thankfully this one won’t verify either

It’s a crusher. Watching the loop, it literally crawls up to the bay and sits over us. Getting ready to eat a wrap and some onion rings from my freezer (use it or lose it), just lost my appetite.

GFS as depicted is really bad for TB

12z is coming in east of 6z edit - material shift thru 63

ICON is a terrible solution for TB

Mandatory evac Zone A for Tampa peeps starting 2pm today.

Not a lot of analogues, but for reference Eta was in the low 990s at 50 miles off Clearwater Beach and produced a 4 ft surge in Old Port Tampa Bay. At peak Eta was 922/130 kts

The full 6z Euro run has the crawl/stall WSW/W of Tampa Bay, and it’s pushing a ton of energy up the coast and in the bays. Not certain how this equates to total surge potential, but it remains an impactful solution and we still have margin of error with the track at this stage.

Yeah the winds should be less of an issue whilst we launch the kayaks from our roof.

6z Euro appears to shift west

Opening bid is 5-8 for surge. Had 4 here with a weakening TS Eta 50 miles offshore, so…. STORM SURGE WATCH NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 512 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2022 FLZ151-261715- /O.EXA.KTBW.SS.A.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ 512 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2022 Coastal Hillsborough- ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT... ...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch means hurricane-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours A Storm Surge Watch means life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, is possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Tampa - Apollo Beach - Westchase * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Wednesday morning until Friday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind greater than 110 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane force or higher. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be underway. Prepare for catastrophic wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Widespread power and communications outages. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 5-8 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until Thursday afternoon - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 6 feet above ground - The storm surge threat has increased from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of greater than 6 feet above ground. - PREPARE: Evacuation preparations should be underway. Assemble disaster supplies and know your evacuation route. - ACT: Leave if evacuation orders are given for your area. Failure to heed evacuation orders may result in the loss of your life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss. - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many small craft broken away from moorings, especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

Good luck fellas and be safe. On Bayshore a few feet above sea level fronting Hillsborough Bay, nowhere to hide here. Will take the 0z UK. 0z Euro is sickening. 06z ICON actually landfalls slightly south, it would not be fun but the track avoids the worst for many.

So far it’s been “we need to get ready but it’s probably not going to be a direct or bad hit,” now it’s sinking in that it actually could be significant or worse. And in Evac Zone A here it’s literally a “sinking” feeling

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 The storm has become better organized-looking on satellite imagery, with strengthening central convection and developing banding features. Upper-level anticyclonic outflow also appears to be increasing over the system. Flight-level winds, Doppler radar velocities, and dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ian's intensity is now near 55 kt. Ian has turned toward the northwest and the initial motion estimate is now 315/11 kt. During the next 48 hours, the tropical cyclone is expected to turn toward the north as it moves along the western side of a mid-level high pressure area. Later in the forecast period, a broad mid-tropospheric trough over the eastern United States is likely to induce a slightly east of northward motion. However, around 4 days, the steering currents are forecast to weaken as the trough moves to the east of Ian's longitude. Some of the guidance model tracks such as that from the GFS have, again, shifted to the east, mainly after 48 hours. The official track forecast has been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous one and is mainly a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS predictions. It should again be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges. Observations from the aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone is developing an inner core, so significant intensification is likely to occur during the next couple of days. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index indicate a fairly high chance for rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the official forecast reflects this likelihood, calling for Ian to become a major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico

It was pretty shocking to experience as most here had their guard down after escaping the worst of Irma. Also a good reminder that a lower end TC with lots of stacked energy can be extremely impactful here.

Once this gets to a Major and if the track still is close to TB, 75N and I4 will be a parking lot by late afternoon Tuesday.

Feeling good that I booked our hotel options Friday. Was just out to get groceries and gas, both a breeze because there’s a home football game in progress. Priorities and such.