TPAwx
-
Posts
446 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by TPAwx
-
TC development patterns and steering currents are unfavorable for frequent local impacts, this goes back at least 175 years in available records. Eroding TS Eta caused more impact IMBY and for many here than Irma, which set off panic for a week out. We really don’t want anything of significance to landfall near or a bit N of TB.
-
6z GFS says Farewell and Adieu to Tampa/St Pete area. Not far off from worst case track and surge scenario, albeit less intense. We’ll see lots of these super bad simulations jumping around the map over the coming days.
-
Thoughts and prayers as you contend with ongoing moderate showers and breezy conditions. Stay vigilant.
-
-
Horrific. Very detailed and engaging first person account of the Amazon warehouse on msnbc a few minutes ago. Should be on video later.
-
There’s a level of enthusiasm for weather and meteorology, and hurricane tracking, that’s understandable and a lifelong passion for many. And then there’s sociopathy. Helpful to understand the difference, and not claim exemption due to “muh weather forum.”
-
That’s fair, tho Memphis and Nashville have great food and music scenes.
-
You really don’t want that HMON solution up yonder.
-
it’s actually pretty funny that the admins allow a red tagger parody account.
-
Yeah science and data based forecasting by top expert professionals is totally overrated.
-
Thoughts and Prayers as you contend with all of this weather that is unusual in Florida except for many days during June, July and August of every year. Just a bit of rain here also.
-
This weekend you’ll be posting about how you are getting ready for the wicked outer bands and then how disappointed you are with the weak outer bands as the system misses you by a large margin.
-
The region and Tampa proper appear to have gotten through with less impact relative to potential outcomes. Onshore flow will continue thru 1230 high tide, but surge looks like 2-3ft near downtown. An early start to what could be a long and interesting tropical season.
-
Radar has a juicy band setting up from Tampa metro to east of Sarasota, will be pivoting thru and dumping during the overnight. High tide at 320AM with the coc close to due west offshore. 3-5ft surge seems on target, could be a tad higher.
-
These are my during/after Eta pics. Surge just under 4 ft, and Elsa will be higher and on top of high tide.
-
Wut Tampa has widespread street flooding with heavy PM thunderstorms. Elsa close to or at Cat 1 and with this trajectory will bring a surge on top of flooding from heavy rainfall.
-
Really unfortunate to see signs of intensification beating back the dry air and shear. This track was going to be bad news for the TB region as a tropical storm, and we don’t need a stronger system. Out of town for Elsa so just an observer for this one.
-
Yeah it will absolutely be an impactful TS for the Tampa Bay area unless there is a major track shift.
-
Significant strengthening is not anticipated though due to moderate wind shear
-
Yeah you’re totally right, except for the lack of forecasted strengthening and limiting influence of the forecasted shear. What are those experts thinking anyway?
-
The local bulletin for you is appropriate given the track. Same here, we had training downpours all day and lots of street flooding, very typical. It doesn’t take much with a TC to be impactful here, but it won’t get broader attention because it’s not a major. The state bulletin is more about a certain attention seeking someone who’s seeking attention.
-
Primarily geographic location relative to typical Atlantic/Gulf TC tracks. Last major to hit was 1921, there’s some good analysis on the variables that keep the region out of the direct bullseye for most cyclones. We don’t need a hurricane per se to have a significant impact, see Eta from last year. A low end hurricane landfalling in northern Pinellas would do a lot of damage across TB, and a major would be devastating.
-
Sending advance Thoughts & Prayers as you prepare to contend with massive local impacts from occasional breeziness and scattered showers. Looking forward to the play by play.
-
Both are way out but interesting track divergence between 6z HMON and HWRF HMON up the middle of the peninsula while HWRF rides the coast along Pinellas Countty as a strong TS or Cat 1. Not worst case trajectory but a high impact and damaging event for TB region with that track.
-
In Tampa this week we’ve been dealing with BAU street flooding from PM storms, and then the stench of dead fish and airborne irritants from red tide pushed in by onshore flow. Didn’t have a early July TS on the bingo card, still a wide spread for tracks so mildly interested but not concerned at this point.
