TPAwx

Yeah we are at risk of property loss except what fits in the cars. Still high uncertainty with the track and intensity at this stage, could easily miss to the south.

If you are referring to landfalling Majors, sure. But you know by now from following the thread that a TS or Cat 1 on certain trajectories can inflict extreme impact and damage around TB. You should be just fine up there in Wesley Chapel, Florida.

While waiting for the 12z suite, here’s a good review of TB risk factors and scenarios https://twitter.com/TB_Times/status/1573736400196960258

Yeah it’s noise but for an actual outcome a huge variable. Surge much more amplified with 12z, while 0z lingers and dumps 20+ inches. Local flooding is common with summer downpours of 1-2 inches, can’t imagine what this would do.

Sandbags would be a nice aquarium feature for my yard with the Euro//UK solutions.

Nightmare fuel, tho thankfully can’t treat with any confidence this far out.

Great to see west and weaker trending, relative to previous solutions.

The NHC track forecast during this period has been adjusted slightly south and west of the previous one, in line with the track consensus aids. Beyond 72 h, there is still a large amount of cross-track spread in the guidance as Ian emerges into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida. Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases beginning later today and a scheduled NOAA G-IV flight will help resolve the steering flow around Ian and deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the eastern U.S. early next week. The guidance envelope has once again shifted westward this cycle, and the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted in this direction as well, though it still lies slightly to the east of the TVCA and HCCA aids. Further adjustments to the track forecast may be needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.

Always lots of focus on winds but yeah it’s mostly about the water here. I had a 4ft surge IMBY from eroding TS Eta and the center was 45 miles offshore. Of course with the heavy tree cover and vegetation here winds at TS or higher will leave a huge mess and power outages region-wide.

Region wide run on water and basics started yesterday. Many Target and Publix locations out of water already. Most here take hurricane hype in stride given the rarity of actual impacts, but feels like more are in tune with scarcity after the 2020 pandemic driven issues with staples and necessities. You snooze you lose.

Late in the period, the guidance indicates the storm will begin to recurve toward Florida. As mentioned before, the track models are in general agreement with this scenario, however there is a large amount of cross-track spread at 72 hours and beyond. In fact, the east-west spread in the guidance at 96 hours is about 180 n mi, with the CTCI and ECMWF along the eastern side of the envelope, and the GFS, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean along the western side. The overall guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the NHC track has been nudged in that direction and lies just east of the various consensus aids. Given the spread in the guidance, and the still shifting dynamical models, additional adjustments to the track forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories. Users are reminded that the long-term average NHC 4- and 5-day track errors are around 150 and 200 n mi, respectively.

Didn’t realize Tampa city limits are 100 miles north of town

Along with an acknowledgement of increased track uncertainty late in the forecast period.

That GFS solution lays an atypically long duration S to SW fetch on TB and the coast. Lots of water to deal with even tho it stays offshore.

Always wise to get a jump on prep. I’ve seen enough from the 12z GFS to book a hotel in GA for next week as a contingency. Will most likely not be needed.

37 events over 175 years, 11 in the last 50 years. Reckon we all have subjective views on the meaning of frequency and rarity.

Interesting for sure. We’ve beaten the Tampa thing to death, but it’s pretty rare for a major to landfall anywhere in Florida.

It’s not the worst case scenario based on that track. Yes it would be a significant impact and highly disruptive. Trajectory needs to be mid to north Pinellas Country to maximize surge potential. And correct, Tampa will not be hit directly by a major hurricane next week.

lol

Yeah it’s not going to take 30 hours to cross the peninsula.

Unfortunately for those that marinate in such scenarios, the odds are near zero that it happens, ever. Of course a Cat 1 on the Hurricane Phoenix trajectory would cause billions in damage here, so a big hit doesn’t need to be a high end storm.

Wanting a TC or post tropical system with massive accumulated energy to visit YBY is a bit like the dog catching the car, FAFO, etc.

More like 100 miles N around Cedar Key but it’s just one of many TBD op run track simulations

Yeah nothing says Fall like a 101 heat index