TPAwx
-
Posts
593 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by TPAwx
-
Thoughts and Prayers as you contend with all of this weather that is unusual in Florida except for many days during June, July and August of every year. Just a bit of rain here also.
-
This weekend you’ll be posting about how you are getting ready for the wicked outer bands and then how disappointed you are with the weak outer bands as the system misses you by a large margin.
-
The region and Tampa proper appear to have gotten through with less impact relative to potential outcomes. Onshore flow will continue thru 1230 high tide, but surge looks like 2-3ft near downtown. An early start to what could be a long and interesting tropical season.
-
Radar has a juicy band setting up from Tampa metro to east of Sarasota, will be pivoting thru and dumping during the overnight. High tide at 320AM with the coc close to due west offshore. 3-5ft surge seems on target, could be a tad higher.
-
These are my during/after Eta pics. Surge just under 4 ft, and Elsa will be higher and on top of high tide.
-
Wut Tampa has widespread street flooding with heavy PM thunderstorms. Elsa close to or at Cat 1 and with this trajectory will bring a surge on top of flooding from heavy rainfall.
-
Really unfortunate to see signs of intensification beating back the dry air and shear. This track was going to be bad news for the TB region as a tropical storm, and we don’t need a stronger system. Out of town for Elsa so just an observer for this one.
-
Yeah it will absolutely be an impactful TS for the Tampa Bay area unless there is a major track shift.
-
Significant strengthening is not anticipated though due to moderate wind shear
-
Yeah you’re totally right, except for the lack of forecasted strengthening and limiting influence of the forecasted shear. What are those experts thinking anyway?
-
The local bulletin for you is appropriate given the track. Same here, we had training downpours all day and lots of street flooding, very typical. It doesn’t take much with a TC to be impactful here, but it won’t get broader attention because it’s not a major. The state bulletin is more about a certain attention seeking someone who’s seeking attention.
-
Primarily geographic location relative to typical Atlantic/Gulf TC tracks. Last major to hit was 1921, there’s some good analysis on the variables that keep the region out of the direct bullseye for most cyclones. We don’t need a hurricane per se to have a significant impact, see Eta from last year. A low end hurricane landfalling in northern Pinellas would do a lot of damage across TB, and a major would be devastating.
-
Sending advance Thoughts & Prayers as you prepare to contend with massive local impacts from occasional breeziness and scattered showers. Looking forward to the play by play.
-
Both are way out but interesting track divergence between 6z HMON and HWRF HMON up the middle of the peninsula while HWRF rides the coast along Pinellas Countty as a strong TS or Cat 1. Not worst case trajectory but a high impact and damaging event for TB region with that track.
-
In Tampa this week we’ve been dealing with BAU street flooding from PM storms, and then the stench of dead fish and airborne irritants from red tide pushed in by onshore flow. Didn’t have a early July TS on the bingo card, still a wide spread for tracks so mildly interested but not concerned at this point.
-
Was curious how far this thing can persist. Hard to imagine it could get to the south of Atlanta, but it’s an exceptional system.
-
Do folks really keep helmets on hand?
-
I’ll go with the pros at SPC over Random Internet Contrarian Guy Who Seeks Attention. The parameters and set up support a very significant and impactful event today.
-
Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979
TPAwx replied to Bob Chill's topic in Mid Atlantic
You are dumping on a data simulation of snowfall amounts 156h in the future? -
Lived in NOVA for every significant snow from 78 to 2016. The first rule of DC winters was and remains: Lucy is rarely denied her glory.
-
January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
TPAwx replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
Tempted to come up for this one, if Euro holds serve 96 hours out. Need a change from running the AC and wearing shorts. -
-
-
Not too common here.
-
Enjoy whatever you get up there. Lived in IAD area for a long time and spent endless hours tracking these things only to be Charlie Brown football’d almost every time. Eventually learned to accept that any falling snow in Dec was a bonus to be appreciated and enjoyed. Dec 2009 and a few others were notable exceptions of course. 73/62 here.
