TPAwx

It was 39 down here in Tampa last week. Sucks y’all can’t manage to combine precip and temps for a proper winter storm.

Appears Tampa had a 4 foot surge on top of high tide, which will certainly have widespread impacts across the area.

Instructive storm for Tampa area. The angle of approach and landfall north of Clearwater (Eta will come ashore around Crystal River or Cedar Key) somewhat echos the worst case scenario Hurricane Phoenix simulation. That of course would be a massive Cat 4/5, and would bring a 30+ foot surge through downtown. So obviously not apples to apples. But Eta is a 65 mph TS and is bringing an impressive degree of flooding thus far. This is not a typical angle of approach for systems here, with the wind and surge stacking and funneling up the Bay and rivers. It’s easy to see how a major+ would be epically bad and likely catastrophic.

Yeah the headline is a bit misleading. This is a half mile south of downtown. Bayshore is a 4 mile long sidewalk with 2 traffic lanes in each direction.

It’s already completely flooded over at the north end near downtown. More extensive than I anticipated. Got hit by a strong gust and almost fell off a ledge into the water.

Gonna go check this out now.

Just returned from a walk, it’s considerably warmer than earlier so I assume there’s a Hot Tower in the vincinity.

Wind has really started to pick up here in Tampa.

My neighborhood. Water will likely breach over into the road later this evening. Houses on the other side of Bayshore should be ok.

Standing water already an issue on the roads across South Tampa. Some pretty hefty downpours moving though but the wind has been minor thus far.

Some spin ups with this band coming ashore

Primary concern with DI is Tampa General Hospital, but their power infrastructure is elevated so they should be ok with this one. I live at water’s edge right across from TGH and will post pics if anything materializes.

High tide at midnight, should be close to max storm impacts. We’re under a 2-4ft surge warning. As you know much of Tampa is prone to flooding from BAU heavy rainfall.

For the TB region Eta will be the most impactful system since Irma. Looks to be a prolific rain maker and localized flooding will likely be the main headline, perhaps some pockets of wind damage due to downed trees. Just getting into the initial bands here this morning.

Just upgraded to Hurricane Eta Hurricane Eta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 735 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that Eta has re-strengthened into a hurricane offshore the southwestern coast of Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 735 AM EST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 83.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart

Based in the prior NHC discussion that would seem to imply more of a eastern trajectory, which the HWRF is showing (as did the GFS). New Euro looks to be weaker and further offshore. edit: Euro comes ashore in the Panhandle, so also further East than 0z. Seems to be some signals in the guidance that ETA could end up stronger.

GFS coming in with an interesting scenario for Tampa Bay region. Fades out to the west after the last frame.

18z HWRF has an amusing scenario late week for Tampa Bay. lol

12z GFS has landfall in the Keys, up the spine and then out off Tampa Bay, and then landfall in the Panhandle. OK

Nope. Would be on brand for 2020 tho.

The more salient question is how does this compare to Sandy?

Well that’s not good.