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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    chances of this becoming a "strong" la nina though have greatly diminished.
  2. LibertyBell
    I didn't even know that could actually happen lol. I'd settle for a nice lunar occultation of either Jupiter or Saturn or both in the same night ;-) Do you have any numbers for when that might happen next?
  3. LibertyBell
    where does the warming state of the planet fit into this.....parts of the north pac have been scorching all season.
  4. LibertyBell
    63 mph winds where I'll be for the holidays too.
  5. LibertyBell
    Walt, I'm going to be in NEPA for this and it looks like that area will also see 60 mph gusts, especially at 2000 ft where I'll be.
  6. LibertyBell
    keeping it more in the weak to low end moderate range would be far better for our wintry prospects, as some epic snowfall seasons have had that combo. and as you yourself said, Don, AO/NAO impacts our winters far more than anything else does.
  7. LibertyBell
    best indicators for this time of the year since 1995-96 and 2010-11
  8. LibertyBell
    right and these competing patterns end up being more important than ENSO itself. I'd also be curious to see the impact of the background warming state, as the Pacific warms, we may see more of these so-called "nino type" patterns in other ENSO conditions also. That's why it's a misnomer to consider them "ENSO type" patterns when other influences are obviously more important, especially the background warming state and the predilection of blocking.
  9. LibertyBell
    Chris, what's your opinion of the New Year's Day possible storm? I see that as still being a bit too soon for a big wintry storm here, maybe more of a mix to rain scenario. The "big one" (if it does occur) should be in early January, perhaps in the Jan 5-10 range.
  10. LibertyBell
    Both are either rain or mix/change scenarios, I think the "real deal" will happen a few days after New Years.
  11. LibertyBell
    hmm I thought the next one would be a few days after new years? I always get nervous when storms are spaced so close together....that usually doesn't work out.
  12. LibertyBell
    2080 actually or you can just look tonight they'll be almost as close as they were last night and it should be clear
  13. LibertyBell
    tonight you'll have a much better chance, it should be clear..by the way how long after sunset was it and how far above the horizon were they?
  14. LibertyBell
    this is part of our new climate so it's not surprising Chris.....milder winters with more snowfall (and more rainfall) has become the norm now. Also it wouldn't be a shock for the pattern to break down as we approach February, patterns usually last from 4-8 weeks before they break, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it returned again later, a la 1995-96. Even in 2010-11 we actually returned to a somewhat snowy pattern again in March.
  15. LibertyBell
    that would be an awesome name for a weather model though all the others would have to bow and get out of the way, ladies and gentleman THE MGMT HAS SPOKEN!
  16. LibertyBell
    I see a big 0.5 in the middle of Long Island! Is that Commack?
  17. LibertyBell
    at least you'll be ground zero for the April 2024 total solar eclipse lol
  18. LibertyBell
    Damn, that even beats the Eric Clapton, Steve Winwood super group.
  19. LibertyBell
    what about downstream rivers and creeks getting flooded because of massive melting upstream?
  20. LibertyBell
    we've seen way too many el ninos produce very little snow and some of our biggest snowfall seasons of all time have been la ninas, some of them are front loaded, some are backloaded and some are both. You cant cookie cutter our snowfall patterns into specific ENSO scenarios, if you could long range forecasting would be a lot easier.
  21. LibertyBell
    there is no such thing as "el nino" or "la nina" patterns, it's all about blocking or lack thereof
  22. LibertyBell
    Now you see why I want geo-engineering so bad, imagine if we had the power to suck clouds right out of the air to see magnificent spectacles like this.
  23. LibertyBell
    maybe it'll hold off until Groundhog day, a la Jan 2011.
  24. LibertyBell
    when will that big rain and wind storm end that we're supposed to get? right before the cold comes charging in? so no precip on Christmas day?
  25. LibertyBell
    Forecast for the super conjunction early tonight, Don?
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