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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    I see that system over the weekend is trending drier as the storm track is trending even further west and north of us. Really more like a summer pattern, not even a spring pattern. You're going to see thunderstorms all the way into Canada!
  2. LibertyBell
    thats why I consider 50" the minimum for "historic" I wonder if 40/40 winters will become more frequent in our new climate or will they still be relegated to the "extremely anomalous" category? 2015-16 was a 40/40 winter at JFK. It seems like a transitional phase before more warming occurs.
  3. LibertyBell
    based on Don S's snowfall tallies, looks like the average snowfall line is from Binghamton to Boston. Time will tell if that progresses southward as the season moves along.
  4. LibertyBell
    It seems to me that the current pattern could have been predicted was back in the early 2010s. We lost the -NAO blocking back then and needed historic levels of -EPO to continue the snowy pattern. It was only a matter of time before that would go away too. We needed miracle comebacks in winters like 2015-16 and winters that followed.
  5. LibertyBell
    Yep, thats why I was looking for more recent analogs where that happened, like 2015-16 and further back 2005-06.
  6. LibertyBell
    Yup, that was prevalent during the late 80s and early 90s. Note how cold our Jan avg temps were during the 80s with low snowfalls. Thats a good side effect of our increasing precip totals since 2000- it's now difficult to get a below avg temp month combined with below avg snowfall, however it can still happen if the pattern dictates cold/dry followed by warm/wet followed by cold/dry, etc. And such a pattern is very stable and difficult to dislodge.
  7. LibertyBell
    The 1990s was transitioning away from the low points of the 70s and 80s. We still haven't seen a winter as great as 1995-96 and 1993-94 was also really good. Unfortunately they were book ended by winters that sucked (except 1992-93 which was about average here.)
  8. LibertyBell
    Seems like the average snowfall line runs from about Binghamton to Boston. Time will tell if it descends south as the season progresses.
  9. LibertyBell
    I love the period Jan 20 to Mar 20 during our snowy winters.
  10. LibertyBell
    this winter seems par for the course for a late 80s/early 90s kind of "winter."
  11. LibertyBell
    Yes, and in 2015 we didn't get cold/snowy until around Jan 20th either.
  12. LibertyBell
    I would also say that we almost always have a small window of winter in a long-term warm pattern. We had a 3" snowfall in Jan 07, as a case in point. It doesn't change the fact that the overall pattern is very warm.
  13. LibertyBell
    The ironic thing is if we included 09-10 in this decade, the decade makes it over a 30"+ average by a nice margin.
  14. LibertyBell
    Thanks, Walt! Do you have any amounts listed for the Mt Pocono to Scranton to Allentown corridor? Got a home near Jim Thorpe.
  15. LibertyBell
    Walt, I have noticed there are more of these snow squalls in winters that are lackluster otherwise. I wonder if this is true or if we just notice them more? These happened quite a bit during the 80s and early 90s too. *it may be true, because in warmer winters, the lakes take longer to freeze.
  16. LibertyBell
    It's pretty bad when 1" is considered a decent event lol.
  17. LibertyBell
    Was JFK just a T? We had very little snow here aside from a dusting on car tops and roofs.
  18. LibertyBell
    I wasn't aware of what was going in Europe, Don! How bad is it over there? Is there a global temp map for December? I also heard that Australia just had its hottest and driest year on record, and it's not even close.
  19. LibertyBell
    14-15 and 15-16 being cases in point. What I find concerning though is that the mild pattern started later this time, so it might be more like 05-06 or 06-07.
  20. LibertyBell
    A good thing about late Jan is that you dont need temps to be abnormally cold to get a significant snowfall event. Storm track is essential though.
  21. LibertyBell
    So yesterday was the day when we hit 72 back in 2007, which was also the anniversary of the great Jan 96 blizzard! Is 72 the all-time monthly record for Jan, Chris?
  22. LibertyBell
    2001-02 was much worse in my view.... at least in 2015-16 winter was pretty exciting from about Jan 20th onwards.
  23. LibertyBell
    If you can do that, you should also be able to build a super weather machine that gives us epic winters every year!
  24. LibertyBell
    I remember a few years ago we altered the Saffir-Simpson scale because of this rounding mess (which is worse in that case because it's to the nearest 5 knots.)
  25. LibertyBell
    The traditional tendency is for the likelihood to increase. In any case, is the 60+ period forecast to be more prolonged than it was the last time it hit 70 in January, Chris? I think that previous January 70 temp was in 2007?
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