LibertyBell

Hey now, well at least you didn't mention Long Island in there lol

Hasn't Islip had 25" before? I seem to remember them getting 24" a few times, maybe 25"?

20" is my minimum threshold for historic too. Expecting 2 feet (24 inches) is just too much down where I live (it's only happened twice in my lifetime PD2 and JAN 2016), but 20" has happened either once or twice every decade. My definitions: 5" - SECS 10" - MECS 20" - HECS 30" - BECS

I don't think he's aware you only got 12" in this storm lol.

But that's less than 10:1 which seems really unlikely with temps in the mid teens

I have the same theory and maybe an adjacent one to that. So basically global warming is changing storm tracks to where storms that would go out to see are now coming closer to the coast because of the higher SST. Models are picking up on it with the "NW trend." The first time I saw this mentioned was by Messenger in 2005. He used it to great effectiveness to predict storms would be coming in closer to the coast. We are also seeing a slowing down of the gulf stream AMOC. Compare this to the 80s when we had much colder Januarys and alternated between cutters and offshore storms.

wtf the LE changes everything. Originally when I eyeballed the data I went with 8-9 too, so maybe a trifle undermeasurement- maybe like 8.8 instead of 8.3? Big deal. But how the hell can you have a less than 10:1 water equivalent ratio with temps in the teens? Surely the winds can't have that much of an effect? I could see 12:1 but nothing lower than that. 12:1 would come out to around 10.5 inches. What was the LE at JFK with their 12.6 inches?

That's exactly what happened here too. The drifts made it seem like a lot more, but the final total was 15" here. 25 inches just a bit east of here.

You sound like you're JACKED on something.

Did you enjoy it more than Jan 2018 or Boxing Day, Ray?

I dont even know why they even bother to measure snow in Manhattan. It never sticks around. All official weather measurements should be done in Queens. JFK had over a foot of snow.

I guess I missed something lol

Awesome, maybe you'll be able to compare it to what it looks like in Long Beach. I don't think any of this stuff is going to melt before Wednesday.

Double Jan 2018 and you have Jan 2016. So see, you didn't actually miss all of Jan 2016, you got to experience half of it in Jan 2018. If you look at it that way.....

949 wow, was that the strongest blizzard we've ever had? I can't remember anything stronger than that or even close

Huntington is all the way at the bottom of the Suffolk County list, I wonder how that's possible? They only got 10"? So you got more snow at Long Beach than you would've gotten in Huntington?

Somehow the Jersey shore ends up getting 20" in either/both scenarios lol.

How much less than Boxing Day for you in this storm?

But if it wasn't for that convection NYC would've gotten 20" in this one too just like they did for Boxing Day, with or without any Atlantic blocking.

I felt like we had higher snowfall rates and stronger winds in 1/4/18 that day was an all day white out and full on Blizzard conditions? This one didn't verify as a Blizzard like that one did at JFK did it? JFK had 6 hours of true blizzard conditions so it was actually a double blizzard lol. Know what I call that storm? The HALF GOAT lol. Because it had true blizzard conditions for 6 hours vs Jan 2016 (the GOAT), which had it for 12 hours (so a quadruple blizzard lol), and there was 15 inches of snow vs the GOAT's 30+ inches of snow. The duration was half that of Jan 2016 too.

The other reason that makes 8.3 suspect is that there was more than that north of the Park in the Bronx and also more than that just west of the Park in NE NJ

So the offshore low formed because of the warmth of the ocean out there? So warmer SST give and take away at the same time.... more moisture available for more snow, but also a more eastward track. Quite honestly out here, it doesn't look all that different from Boxing Day, the main difference is that storm lasted longer (a full 24 hours.) That storm was like 18 inches here and this storm was like 14 inches....you really can't tell the difference. I think you and I were up til the end of Boxing Day if I remember correctly, we both measured just as the snow was ending and you were in Long Beach, how much did you get in that storm? How much did you get in this one? Does 18 inches in that one vs 14 inches in this one sound about right to you?

and we all thought that was just a figment of the models' imaginations and fantasies lol. Because usually it doesn't happen but this time it did work out....and screwed the city. I can't complain because I got over a foot of snow, but Manhattan and NW did get shafted somewhat.

so theoretically at least Manhattan could've gotten 20 inches of snow even without Atlantic blocking, they just needed the two low solution / chasing the convection not to happen?

I mean Brooklyn topped out at a foot. I think we can at least say that all of Manhattan had less than a foot of snow.