LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Think we'll get it back here too?
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Yes and that island is named Labrador
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I'm not sure how much the strength of the storm has to do with our snowfall amounts, it seems the stronger the storm the more banding there is, but our heaviest longest duration snowfalls seem to be from weaker storms that throw moisture over arctic air.
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979 mb east of southern NJ so still pretty strong when we are getting its worst.
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I swear the supercomputer that runs it is just playing games with us. It's doing the digital version of throwing darts at a dartboard and just giving us the randomized results.
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By tucked in I thought you meant they were hitting the Jersey shore lol
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Yeah Boxing Day was a great storm but we honestly expected it to be more here. Monmouth County got the best snows in that one. South shore of Nassau county seems to be a common spot for subsidence zones unfortunately. For whatever reason it seems to jackpot in high end el ninos but otherwise we usually max out under or right around 20 inches. I'm looking through the list of all 20 inch storms at JFK and most are in el ninos outside of the Feb 1961 storm and of course Jan 1996.
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This seems to be a pattern with the double low error. I remember this happened with a few of our other big ones too. Isn't there a way to fix models on the fly? In other fields, when a simulation has an error we rerun the simulation after the event occurs and change the model to make a better prediction.
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He's like those NFL teams that have perfectly imperfect seasons.
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There's not, that extra twist makes this even more fun
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There is literally no difference in snowfall amounts between Central Long Island and SE MA
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Good I hope it makes landfall with all the misery the GFS has given all week
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there is nothing to keep it from going further west so let's get it as far west as it could possibly go, this is the good thing about no arctic high pressing down to push the storm out
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how far apart were the two storms? a couple of weeks? -
How many miles were the models off by 24 hours before that event and right when the event began? Was it a 20 mile error?
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It's pretty interesting, I've tried the WU network but none of them quite reaches the levels of FOK....the closest one to it is in Quogue I think. Yep as far as bad data goes it's GIGO just like with anything else lol
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Yes the cold air is right near the ground therefore it takes very little to displace it. There is an inversion there because of the calm winds.
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Oh okay so there really is no nudge, the apparent nudge is just the result of imperfect data assimilation prior to more recent runs?
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Not at FOK lol where it's -1
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and HTO at 2. Is FOK the actual coldest spot on long island? There isn't a place a few miles from there thats even colder? Weird coincidence to have the airport sensor at just the right location to record the coldest temps, I'm sure it wasn't planned that way lol. Meanwhile JFK is 16 and LGA is 19.
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What causes the nudges? And why cant they be forecast better?
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HTO (East Hampton) at 3 degrees, so not far off from the FOK 0 temp. Wow now FOK down to -1 (is this their first below zero this season?) HTO holding at 3 (edit- HTO now down to 2.) It just seems weird that the airport sensor seems to be right where the coldest temps on Long Island are-- what a coincidence lol. Are we sure there isn't some nearby place around there that might be even colder?
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what are they measuring temps on, a slab of dry ice?
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all that we need to double our snowfall total from 10 inches to 20 inches is a 20 mile shift (like from the previous NAM to the current one.) That is some razor thin margin of error right there lol.
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Yes let's start with a baseline of winter storm warning and work upwards from there lol
