There's strong evidence that these "looks" dont really apply....they broadbrush patterns. If you look at the top 10 winters of all time, you'll see them range all across the board. And if you look at the bottom 10 winters, they also range all across the board LOL. Also, it wont be the second half of February, if anything it'll just be the last 9 days of the month, a 28 day month, which means just the last third of the month.
These ENSO fundamentalists annoy me, they're almost as irrational as religious fundamentalists.