LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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yea these models are definitely like the stock market
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watching these models is about as bad as watching the stock market
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I may regret this but what kind of temperatures are we talking about in week 2? still cold and clammy or maybe some early spring time warmth?
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why? I take it you never see them in England?
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Thanks, Don! So they got to 0 in 1994 but not below?
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is JFK on a similar streak?
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Don did JFK not get below zero since 1985? That seems really strange as I recorded -3 here in SW Nassau 5 miles southeast of the airport in Jan 1994. We were easily below zero that month.
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Ordinarily I would be scared of power outages, but we didn't get them in Jan 1994....you were around for that historic event (I think), what was the reason we didn't have them then and why would they be more likely now? I'm much more scared of driving accidents.
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wow almost 3 degrees warmer than the next one. And if it weren't for February all three months would have been above normal. The streak of below 50 highs is also interesting- how many are we up to now, Chris?
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If it was like Feb 1922 then it would be exciting (17 inches of snow over three days with sleet and freezing rain mixed in, 4.5 inches of LE) Based on what happened in Texas, either way it's better to be safe, I'm not going anywhere during this storm. There has been a pattern with storms this year, they trend further north and closer to the coast than modeled (even if they get suppressed in the mid range.)
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bad timing for both of these if this happens.
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sounds somewhat like the two events in 2007 (Feb/Mar)
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why less freezing rain in the city- mostly sleet there?
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yes this like the "junior edition" do you think both the 1982-83 and the 1997-98 super el ninos had a similar long lasting effect? also, why is it our summers haven't been as hot since then (in terms of 90 degree highs), maybe we've gotten wetter since also?
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IMO all major roads should be shut down in advance if we have a major crippling ice storm.
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but Walt another factor must be that those storms are still over the ocean and perhaps not properly sampled yet
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yes, furthering the 1993-94 analogy, after the big storms at the beginning of February we basically nickled and dimed our way to 50" the rest of that winter we were nickeling and diming it before those events that season too lol
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the problem is none of next week's storms are properly sampled yet as they are all still over the open water
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the fascinating thing about the MJO is that it originates in the Indian Ocean doesn't it- and the Indian Ocean is warming more rapidly than any other ocean on earth?
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what ended up being a bad winter for us lol
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which I think we can convincingly show there is no such thing as a "nina look" because there are many different factors that define a pattern....nina "look" was awesome for us in 95-96 and 10-11 wasn't it but of course there is no rationality or reasoning with an enso fundamentalist
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well JFK had 40 inches that winter, maybe you're re-adjusting your numbers downward because you had less than 30" in the Jan 2016 blizzard? Although I think you might have hit it because it should've run west-east right through your area.
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did you measure it yourself or are you using JFK numbers?
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it's like saying the world isn't round because it's flat at the poles lol.
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This event being discussed this week having frozen precip going all the way to the Gulf Coast reminds me of it, but isn't nearly of the same magnitude.
