LibertyBell

How did we do in December 2017? I remember that as a backloaded winter-- our first snow was actually in January 2018 that season from what I remember.

This may not be the pattern to get that. You may need the pattern to completely break down and rebuild a new and better block. I don't buy the December stuff as anything but coincidence, because the weather doesn't recognize "months" I would rather put my eggs in the two months which are most favored to get big snows and that's January and February. December isn't even a winter month here anymore.

That's a good point too. Not only does the weather not recognize "months"we have to be careful in basing statistical correlations on single spots-- Central Park is just a point-- places not very far from it have seen significant snow.

This never really had the time or the chance to develop into the kind of hysteria you get with "mega storm" possibilities. Could you imagine a March 2001 kind of bust around Christmas? Omg

Thats awesome Cape May gets 16" and Philly and Boston get 10" and NYC gets less than any of them.

or an el nino for that matter. We have to stop thinking of enso having that much governance over our weather. That warm pool in the Atlantic s actually more responsible for it.

I think this is just statistical coincidence, the weather doesn't recognize "months"-- it could just as easily snow in the first week of January and the weather wouldn't recognize any difference from it being December.

Why is that any way? If the Pacific is so influential in our weather and December has the highest chance of sucking because of a bad Pacific and La Nina's usually feature a bad Pacific, wouldn't it make sense that January and February are much more important because they are less sensitive to a bad Pacific? What exactly would keep it from being much better in January and February when we are favored to have much higher chances of snow and the SST are much colder?

GFS did the best both with track and with strength. Note-- the Euro was WAY too strong and also the farthest west.

NYC: 26" EWR: 28" MMU: 35" ISP: 29" SWF: 44" I'm going to go with an 80s type winter so lot's of 20s" or thereabouts along the coast.

Thanks so much Walt! Looks like 7.4" was the max at Mt Pocono.....it's still snowing in the Poconos isn't it? Would you post a final total from there once the storm ends completely? I think they're expecting another 3-5"? It's also fascinating to see the difference with only 4" around I-80 in NE PA and 7.4" at MPO just slightly to the north (and much higher elevation). And only around 3" around Lehighton! I think it's still snowing there though so maybe they'll get up to around 6" there? I guess when the final totals come out we'll know.

2002-03 was a very underrated winter in which almost everyone did well and there was a snowstorm that hit just about everyone from the midatlantic to the northeast.

Maybe not though. This kind of extreme block is a good sign going forward to better blocking in the meat of winter-- January and February. Perhaps this blocking needs to break down for a better and stronger block to come along.

I'm not sure anyone knows. I'm of the same inclination as you are, that we get much better chances in January and February. That's partly based on climo and partly based on this particular block breaking down and a better one emerging later in the season. Sometimes you have to completely break something down to get something better.

I have a little fly in the logic ;-) What if this IS the pattern haha?

Interesting-- is that good or bad? Normally when you get the coldest temperatures over us the storm track is too suppressed.

I bet there is a Mt Pocono like elevaton around there where someone averages 70 inches lol. Maybe up near Monticello? That's right near the edge of our subforum.

Better safe than sorry. Even in the city there was a major accident on the Major Deegan.

Those are some fascinating gradients. I wonder if there's any kind of storm where everyone does well with snowfall?

Thanks I know I remembered 65 inches from somewhere lol

Yeah he could be into the other kind of "snow" after all-- that'd be a lot worse lol

After that storm we are getting into a much colder pattern correct? So perhaps the way we get snow this season is to forget about coastals and count more on the regular west to east tracking storms and clippers that are quick enough that they don't interact with warm Atlantic waters and drop a quick 2-4" and sometimes even 4-6"? Back in the 80s and early 90s those were our primary time of snowfall event. Those kinds of storms don't have to deal with the SE ridge or warm pools in the Atlantic.

Is this warm pool and "south" based blocking which had never happened before a few years ago (at least I had never heard it mentioned by anyone) here to stay permanently, Chris? If it's a feature of climate change, it may be a permanent feature?

But you're giving up on winter if it doesn't work out lol. Numbers show that you should wait another month at least. If we don't get a 6"+ snowstorm by the end of January then worry.

Yeah we usually get our first significant snowfall around Jan 20th now. It's usually between January 20 - March 20 for our significant snowfall interval so a good two month period. Not the minor 1-3 kind of stuff that can happen basically anytime between November and April.