LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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hold up lol, it snowed until 1 pm and a total of 8 inches, I'm afraid of losing some trees because the weight of the snow is so heavy on them. And there is ice under the snow, the snow is really wet and heavy so it looks like the bottom layer melted and refroze. Going down to 26 tonight, it's already 29.
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omg they already got 8 inches in that area that ended this afternoon
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lol brings back such "nice" memories of the 80s and early 90s. Even the Poconos won't get 6 inches from this will they-- especially the southern Poconos around Lake Harmony, at 2,000 ft asl?
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Yes halving those numbers still gets you to a foot or just over in the KPOU area.
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10:1 is not happening, halve these numbers
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it's like the different globals are taking their turns keeping our attention lol I don't think we have any chance of getting 6" of snow, but a 3-5 inch event is still pretty good, especially this season.
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halve that and still not bad
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Maybe in a way it's a good thing lol?
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EPS members with a 4" average getting to 50% is pretty interesting. The chances of a moderate impact here in terms of snowfall are still on the table.
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weak el nino is good for new england, we want closer to a strong one down here
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There are also other things that make a storm much more historic than raw snowfall numbers. I've mentioned December 1992. This storm can be historic in more impactful ways than snowfall so that should be watched for too.
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we've seen this chasing the convection scenario before
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I love stacked lows because it means we no longer have to deal with a pesky warm layer and it's going to be all snow as long as you're west of the surface low.
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yup such is the nature of very marginal late season events.
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Yeah like that one has twice as much on Long Island as in the city.
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It's more like 7:1 or 8:1 tops. Just to be on the cautious side, I halve the totals of those models.
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I can't believe I have to say this, but an "atmospheric river" isn't a real river (the geological definition of a river requires that it MUST be liquid!) but it's an easier way to visualize it.
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The Euro especially.
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Don, with this skewing going on, could we calculate the mode instead of the mean? I think that would be useful, as it often is with snowfall to cancel out the extreme members. I think we have a reasonable chance to stay below the 2001-02 snowfall figure, which was my least snowiest (I wasn't alive for 1972-73).
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that plus being overly optimistic on extremely marginal late season events
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Give it to 12z tomorrow. But yes expecting more than a couple of inches around here is being very optimistic. Great for places 50 miles or more to the north or west though.
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it snowed for about 30 min here lol and then it switched to drizzle and now it looks like the sun is trying to come out
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Well I can only go by own experience why we don't get wet snow bombs at 36 degrees here this late in the season. What usually happens is it sticks when it's falling hard and as soon as the rates lighten up, whatever fell melts. That has happened 100% of the time here in all sorts of winters this late in the season. Including ones much colder than this one.
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wow I love those deep blue skies! How high up is that?
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Yeah probably good for the mountains, no way it would snow here or in the city.
