LibertyBell
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My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
LibertyBell replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It can be cold in both the west and east, and I see NOAA is now going with a cold east. The likely pattern will be cold in the north (regardless of whether you're in the west or east) and warm in the south. -
I hate wind.
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Definitely not underperforming. Very high winds and heavy rain.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
LibertyBell replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
from NYC subforum Dimming the Sun to Cool the Planet Is a Desperate Idea, Yet We're Inching Toward It. The scientists who study solar geoengineering don’t want anyone to try it. But climate inaction is making it more likely. https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/dimming-the-sun-to-cool-the-planet-is-a-desperate-idea-yet-were-inching-toward-it/amp -
a bunch of very rich people are thinking of doing it on their own with or without any government help or consent.
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But he said he expected a snowy December (just not a big snowstorm)
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If it made our winters snowier and colder we didn't see it until 93-94
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10 feet of snow in the Poconos near Stroudsburg! Question-- the end of the excerpt cut off talking about it being "the only winter in recorded American history during which the waters surrounding"....does that mean the SST was below freezing in our area?
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Would have been 2 foot plus events in the heart of winter though And there was the one in early April which might have been 2 feet in February.
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and the last time that happened was back in the 1780s during that famous New England winter? wow...if I remember correctly that was the winter with the snowstorms that buried entire houses. NYC and Philly may had over 100" of snow
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What's that huge double peak at the end? 2009-10 and 2010-11?
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How well can they predict where the extreme blocking will show up from year to year? I'm guessing not well?
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Now the question is how much of a role climate change plays in these extreme blocks, since they seem to be migrating to different parts of the globe. In 2014-15 we also had extreme blocking but it was in the North Pacific (if I remember correctly?) and if climate change plays a role in the extremity of these blocks will their return rate increase? Has it been already? 2017-18 was another example of extreme blocking, but much later in the season.
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Yes in 2010 that hung on a knife's edge, as the original prediction was for 3 inches or less in December, which would have meant a low snowfall winter. The day after Christmas storm when the month was nearly over is what turned the knife.
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What caused that historic block in 2010? Was it a holdover from what happened the previous winter?
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We had a large area of 30"+ in January 2016. It's going to be really hard to top that. And strong el ninos provide kind of juice to do that on a widespread basis (Feb 1983 and PD2 were two other cases where it happened.)
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89-90 a season I was thinking about....but that year the cold came early, and left early....
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Yep, it cleaned out whatever was causing my horrendous allergies today. Light rain is THE WORST (or just cloudy skies), when it rains hard they vanish.
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Also, Decembers with at least 6" of snow generally result in above normal snowfall during La Nina winters correct, Don?
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1966-67 had this-- lots of snow on both coasts
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Just keep expectations a little tempered because both 95-96 and 10-11 were la ninas after el ninos.
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No, but EasternLI posted that it 'ends here' and that image was dated the 12th.
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Looks lik 8th-12th and then it flips? But you need flips to get big storms.
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What's causing this? Some typhoon recurvature?
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It's hilarious no one is talking about this big rain storm going on right now with it about as dark as it gets outside. My morning rainfall allergies at least went away when the rain started coming down hard. Those are bad when it's light rain or just cloudy, but once it's raining hard the air cleans up and my allergies go away.
