LibertyBell

luck may be a factor but if the same thing occurs for several years, then it's probable something isn't being factored in; for example in the 80s, the NW Atlantic was abnormally cold, which led to fewer coastal storms. The more you increase sample size, the better you can analyze data to find causal factors. In very small sample sizes variability (or "luck") is more meaningful.

the interesting thing is that favorable patterns that produce and "favorable" patterns that don't produce seem to run in bunches, this is evidence that it isn't random....there is some outside variable that isn't being factored in, which makes the "favorable" pattern that doesn't produce less favorable than it might seem.

we gage winters by production. If it doesn't produce it's meaningless

The reason favorable patterns dont always work out is because you're missing something that needs to be factored in. Thats why they dont work out in bunches. It's not random, there is a pattern to it.

I guess this is why John (Tip) mentioned March 1888. March 1993 also occurred on these dates.

what dates are these potential storms?

Yes 107 from LGA in 1966 for the record high! ugh January 1996 was severely undermeasured so that 81" figure from LGA is probably much more accurate, note the differences between LGA (27") vs Central Park (21"). This isn't new for Central Park, they also undermeasured PD2 2003 (26" at JFK vs 20" at Central Park), February 1983 (20"+ at both JFK and LGA, 18" at Central Park), February 1969 (20"+ at both LGA and JFK, 15" at Central Park), February 1961 (25" at JFK and 24" at LGA, while only 16" at Central Park.)

Yes we see how inaccurate these totals are especially in these borderline events. I would guestimate that the 1.8 figure should probably be around 2.2 or 2.3

Don can you make a similar chart for all these locations for all of met winter? Thanks!

I guess if you count the entire area, though I am going with the 10" in New York City definition. We could switch that to MECS for NYC in which case that would still be valid lol

by the way two nights of northern lights, did you see anything last night?

anywhere where it was 4"+

Is KU measured by area of 10" snowfall plus the population under that area? I guess you could use the MECS definition and link that to 10" for any individual location and then keep HECS for 20" plus.

as you know I'm going with the lowest number for low records and the highest number for high records. As long as JFK remains below the record it's going to be historic, at 1.7" currently.

There have been no KU in March since 1993

thats not a snowstorm lol

I'm going with JFK numbers, 1.7 for JFK. For record lows always go with the lowest figure, for record highs always go with the highest figure.

You can also have a KU event for an individual location, which I would say has to be 10" or more. For example, a 10" event for Long Beach is a KU for Long Beach. 20" is HECS, so a 20" storm for Long Beach is an HECS for Long Beach.

Mt Pocono's record warmest winter was still below freezing lol

If you lower your expectations to 4 inch to 6 inch storms there's plenty of examples between mid March and mid April

I would bet against anything historic though 6-8 inch storms are just fine

I thought you were Nosnow this year lol

we aren't really safe from it-- I expect we wont get any accumulation from Friday's event and we'll then have to depend on March 10 and beyond.

It's worth noting that it didn't give us an extremely snowy winter though (unless 93-94 counts for a delayed impact, as some claim.) El Chichon was another one in 1982, which was claimed to have been a reason for the February 1983 HECS although as we have seen, very strong ninos can have those huge snowstorms even if it's the only one that winter. The biggest impact I have seen from volcanoes are amazingly dark total lunar eclipses. The one in December 1982 literally looked like a black hole hanging in the sky at 4:30 am. And that was after the July 1982 total lunar eclipse which was one of the brightest of all time, the moon was a bright orange at 3:30 am!

8:1 do you think? Imagine what this would have been like in very cold weather and 20:1 ratios that would be a foot of snow lol. 15 inches at 25:1 which is usually the best we see around here.