LibertyBell

wow Upton hasn't been the jackpot area since 2013- that's a big change! Between 1996 and 2013 all they did was win!

Wow 2002-2003 was certainly very active. One of our most underrated winters ever (and PD2 was one of our most underrated storms ever.)

it reminds of a snowy version of the coastal fronts in Fla lol.

Has any place been better than ISP for those big snowfalls on Long Island? BNL or somewhere on the north shore in eastern LI might be doing even better (like somewhere around Mt Sinai.)

I was just going to say that Ocean and Monmouth County are the new big snowfall capitals of NJ lol

What date is the cutter on? The 15th?

It still somehow has 3.2" around Islip lol

Was Feb 2003 the last time we had a snowstorm that delivered for most of the area? Seems like storms like Jan 1996 and PD2 have become the ultimate unicorn in our pattern as most of our storms over the past decade or more have had haves and have nots and storms like Feb 1983, Jan 1996 and PD2 have become the rarest type of snowstorm. Extreme snowfall totals, but very sharp cutoffs and much smaller total snowshield area....I wonder if anyone has done research on this and is this also related to the warm pool in the NW Atlantic? I noticed two of the above three were in strong el ninos so maybe that also factors in, which makes Jan 1996 the outlier amongst outliers, but that was a la nina after an el nino, which are known to be very snowy too.

This is exactly why the Maine lobster season is going out of business. Decades ago it used to be the Long Island lobster season, then the lobsters migrated to Maine when our waters started to get warmer and now they are in Atlantic Canada.

Think the index can get down to -5? Is that the lowest it's gotten in a long time?

Wow the last third of December is MUCH worse than even the first third of the month!

The increase in big precip events (both rain and snow) is very noticeable.

It's noticeable in urban areas where it's become much harder to get a big event in March

But also much bigger snowfalls, I'll take that trade off

the early 00s were notable for big December snowfalls though

it's not the same as before though, the cold AMO phase in the 80s featured much colder northern Atlantic SSTs.

Triple phasers can track further east....there was one in 2004 or 2005 I think it was that hit Nova Scotia really hard. One could argue that the tracks of triple phasers have been moving east with time if you track the historical progression of their storm tracks.

Sounds like you think the possibility of a BM track triple phaser has increased with climate change, maybe this is why you think we still have a chance to one day break our all time snowfall records.

Would love the CMC to score the win. Based on the "downgrade" of the GFS might mean that the CMC moves ahead of the GFS for accuracy.

what's the record overall and for the month of December and for winter? Looks like it's approaching -5 on that graphic!

We really just need two nice wintry months to have a very good winter. 1977-78 was basically a two month snowy winter 2010-11 was a two month snowy winter 2014-15 was a two month snowy winter too

I wonder if there is a way to track of the signals these indices have been provided have slowly warmed over time I can see our Januarys are definitely warmer than they were in the 80s, when they averaged in the 20s the majority of the time.

0.T?

where do you find this stuff lol and what are they carrying? are those midget St Bernards going to rescue people?

But wasn't the 13th always the target date? Somewhere around that date was always supposed to be the first realistic possibility at snow.