NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Big trend towards the GFS this run. Colder surface but mid-levels remain warm. Just an FYI, you need the warm air aloft to get the precip in the first place. If the mid levels trend colder there will be much less precip. Bottom line, virtually no chance of this ending up as a snow event for us.
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The 12z NAM was still well out of range but it's at the point where you would expect it to be, over amped and warm. But it's actually not that warm. Look at those surface temps. 32 degrees where it's showing plain rain and temperatures only go down from here.
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Hopefully the NWS doesn't down play this and gets the warnings out early so that most people stay home and the roadways can be properly treated.
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If the GFS is correct, the surface is already down to the lower 20's by 06z Saturday for the Hudson Valley and interior NNJ. 32 degrees in NYC and drops from there. The heaviest precip falls after 06z.
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The coast actually has a potential to see more ZR than the far interior because the colder air is filtering in and that will eventually change over to more sleet the farther NW you get.
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The 12z Saturday morning panel is even worse. The far interior flips to sleet with the mid levels cooling but the city flips to ice.
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The soundings for the 12z GFS support mostly freezing rain North of I-78 in NJ and the Hudson Valley beginning between 00z and 06z Friday. Just look at 850mb temps compared to the surface and it's easy to see why the GFS is painting such a horrid picture.
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This isn't your typical SWFE setup with retreating cold.
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It’s too early for the NAM. Need to wait till tomorrow night.
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This is kind of a unique setup for us. Usually the cold air is departing. This is the setup you normally see over the Southern plains or TN Valley.
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Going with the Euro I presume.
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I updated the thread title. If some areas do see snow it will likely be at the very end and not amount to much unless things shift dramatically.
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Never use the Kuchera in a setup like this. Ratios will be god awful unless you're well upstate.
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18z GFS freezing rain.
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The soundings for the 18z GFS show a very prominent warm push between 700 and 900mb. I highly doubt most of what it shows falling as snow would be snow in actuality. More likely to be sleet.
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This is a storm where you would expect the NAM to do really well. It usually is better than the globals at picking up on CAD.
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You have to see how shallow the warm air is. If most of the column is cold or if the warm layer is above 925mb that would favor more sleet.
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Historically speaking these big ice events hardly ever work out for our area but the setup is more like you would normally get in the Southern plains or the Osarks with the strong high to the North and a positively tilted trough with massive amounts of overrunning. The cold air isn’t retreating either, unlike most of our ice threats. Could be very nasty, especially for the Hudson Valley and points West.
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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
NJwx85 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Hard to get a good measurement because of the drifting but finished with 4-5” here in central Rockland just North of the 287/87/PIP interchange. -
The models over the past two cycles have trended towards a deeper trough. What once looked like a major warmup and a cutter now looks like a very messy situation. The 06z GFS brings a lot of sleet and ZR to much of the area on Friday after starting as rain Thursday night. The Euro isn’t that much different and neither is the Canadian. Five days out, discuss here.
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Spent most of the night stuck between bands. Mostly light to occasionally moderate snow. Haven’t gone out yet but eyeballing about 3” of snow. Still coming down but the storm is starting to pull East. You can see the Western edge starting to dry up. Think it’s over up here by noon at the latest.
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A lot of posters here live in NNJ and the Hudson Valley and are at major risk of underperforming.
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God no. The GFS was awful with the upper levels. It also had many runs that were so far East even Boston barely got anything.
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Well that's what I was referring too in my post. It's been ticking SE in places that are in danger.
