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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Yes, but the Euro used to be way ahead the rest of the pack so you could trust it more. I’m not arguing that model skill hasn’t improved, just that it’s harder to decipher what’s more correct at any given range, especially when the differences between the GFS and Euro are significant. This particular setup though is much easier to handle than a miller A that we might get next week.
  2. NJwx85
    None of the models are as good as they used to be. I’ve seen them all make wild jumps. However they have all converged for this storm and confidence is fairly high with a few nuances still to be worked out.
  3. NJwx85
    If you get 18” I’m getting 2’+ lol
  4. NJwx85
    I’m starting to think there will be a strip of 20”+ from about MMU to HPN. That’s where there should be maximum dynamics while staying all or mostly snow. But we still have 60+ hours to go so a lot can still change.
  5. NJwx85
    18z NAM is quite a bit faster with bringing in precip overnight.
  6. NJwx85
    Haven’t realized yet that they are smarter than 99% of us here and have more detailed data to look at plus a vast amount of experience?
  7. NJwx85
    12Z GFS is about as perfect as it gets for our area.
  8. NJwx85
    NAM at 00z Monday near NYC.
  9. NJwx85
    The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs according to the 00z GFS (CIPS) are: 2/18/21 12/25/02 12/15/13 2/11/86 12/17/20 3/4/2001 is number 6 LOL
  10. NJwx85
    I like my spot for this one in Rockland County. I also have a hard time believing the sleet mixes into NYC for a significant amount or time.
  11. NJwx85
    Bernie Rayno shared the Euro soundings tonight on his video feed. There’s briefly a narrow warm tounge around 700mb in NYC. It gets to maybe +1C for 6 hours late Sunday night.
  12. NJwx85
    The 00z ICON is 12-18” for most with lollies 20”+. And it lingers snow most of Monday.
  13. NJwx85
    If you thought Metfan was the biggest weenie on here, think again.
  14. NJwx85
    My top 3 biggest heartbreaks are: 2/8/13 2/5/10 March 2001 Biggest Miracle: 12/26/10 Biggest storm missed while alive: PD2 - was in FL at Daytona 500.
  15. NJwx85
    I remember it well. 2 days off school for an inch of slop.
  16. NJwx85
    Pivotal weather shows freezing rain but I have a hard time believing it with a 1035mb low over Quebec and a weak surface low off the VA Capes. Primary low dies over West Virginia.
  17. NJwx85
    This doesn’t look accurate to me. I think it’s a crappy output from a crappy model. You have 2m temps in the teens in VA and Eastern PA where it’s showing rain.
  18. NJwx85
    All the models have it down there. The key is it ejecting Saturday morning. It’s interesting that one piece of this storm will bring rain to Southern CA on Friday.
  19. NJwx85
    Can we get a separate banter thread please? Too much nonsense here the last few hours.
  20. NJwx85
    Basic physics tells you that you can’t run the upper level low into a 1038-1040mb high. If we didn’t have blocking it would be a completely different story. Heavy snow to a dry slot followed by the potential coastal on Monday is much more likely at this point than significant mixing issues. However, even 96 had some sleet up this way. Can’t rule it out but any guidance holding on to that primary North of say Pittsburg is likely wrong.
  21. NJwx85
    The Canadian is NOT a good model and I wouldn’t be concerned with it at all unless it started moving back towards a more suppressed look. It’s over amplifying the trough and not handeling the airmass to the North well.
  22. NJwx85
    The general rule of thumb is that clown maps are for clowns. They aren’t useful for making serious weather forecasts. They don’t account for a lot of things. The short term models like the HRRR are useful for picking up banding or mixing issues. You have in this case a raging jet stream slamming into a brick wall of dense, dry arctic air. It gonna snow, a lot.
  23. NJwx85
    My parents are coming into HPN from SJU Sunday night and that’s not happening either. Best part is they are on a cruise and have no idea it’s coming.
  24. NJwx85
    The primary hanging on too long can sometimes be problematic. If I recall that was the issue with March 2001.
  25. NJwx85
    We’re not getting sleet lol That cold air is way too entrenched.
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