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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Can we get a separate banter thread please? Too much nonsense here the last few hours.
  2. NJwx85
    Basic physics tells you that you can’t run the upper level low into a 1038-1040mb high. If we didn’t have blocking it would be a completely different story. Heavy snow to a dry slot followed by the potential coastal on Monday is much more likely at this point than significant mixing issues. However, even 96 had some sleet up this way. Can’t rule it out but any guidance holding on to that primary North of say Pittsburg is likely wrong.
  3. NJwx85
    The Canadian is NOT a good model and I wouldn’t be concerned with it at all unless it started moving back towards a more suppressed look. It’s over amplifying the trough and not handeling the airmass to the North well.
  4. NJwx85
    The general rule of thumb is that clown maps are for clowns. They aren’t useful for making serious weather forecasts. They don’t account for a lot of things. The short term models like the HRRR are useful for picking up banding or mixing issues. You have in this case a raging jet stream slamming into a brick wall of dense, dry arctic air. It gonna snow, a lot.
  5. NJwx85
    My parents are coming into HPN from SJU Sunday night and that’s not happening either. Best part is they are on a cruise and have no idea it’s coming.
  6. NJwx85
    The primary hanging on too long can sometimes be problematic. If I recall that was the issue with March 2001.
  7. NJwx85
    We’re not getting sleet lol That cold air is way too entrenched.
  8. NJwx85
    What a band.
  9. NJwx85
    Much cleaner phase and better trough orientation.
  10. NJwx85
    Oh yes I remember you lol
  11. NJwx85
    I’m not a 20 year old kid anymore. I’m a 40 year old man with 3 kids and a full time job. Don’t have the time I once had. I’ll do my best to chip in on this one though since it’s got blockbuster written all over it.
  12. NJwx85
    Long range NAM looks good.
  13. NJwx85
    You can see here how the timing is slightly off and instead of a consolidated trough, it gets elongated, weakens, and gets kicked East at the last momiute. Still positive trends.
  14. NJwx85
    The phase was just a little late. Need to amplify the flow.
  15. NJwx85
    Going to be a big hit. Surface is way North.
  16. NJwx85
    Much better
  17. NJwx85
    She’s about to go boom
  18. NJwx85
    It’s already beginning to interact at 06z Saturday.
  19. NJwx85
    The GFS is now very similar to the Euro with how it handles the Southern trough. Let’s see if it holds.
  20. NJwx85
    The GFS should be better this run. It’s ejecting the Southern energy faster and the Northern piece is a hair slower and further West.
  21. NJwx85
    Don’t be shocked if the end result of this storm is about an 8 hour event that brings 4-8” of snow. Those saying the changes aloft on the Euro are just noise are being ignorant. A long duration event only happens if there’s a clean phase. Otherwise it’s overrunning and a scrape as the coastal gets kicked East.
  22. NJwx85
    Yup, not a clean phase. It trended towards the GFS with regards to handling the SW energy.
  23. NJwx85
    Having the UKIE moving towards the Euro is encouraging
  24. NJwx85
    There’s no phasing and it all gets squashed south. If that Southern piece doesn’t eject in time we’re finished.
  25. NJwx85
    It was North on Saturday night.
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