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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Late developing Miller A’s are rough. March 2001 comes to mind. They favor New England not NYC.
  2. NJwx85
    Just inside the BM would be fine.
  3. NJwx85
    Close to the coast is what we want. You want a rapidly deepening system and then the rest will take care of itself.
  4. NJwx85
    18z GFS is a big hit as predicted
  5. NJwx85
    18z GFS is going to probably be West of 12z. The southern vort is more amped up than 12z and the trough axis is further West.
  6. NJwx85
    Same type of situation with a squall line feature that moves SW to NE.
  7. NJwx85
    My idea of a perfect Winter is 60's and sunny with the occasional snow threat.
  8. NJwx85
    Because you literally have a piece of the polar vortex dropping down. You would be looking at highs struggling to get much above 20 degrees even at the coast.
  9. NJwx85
    The initial Southern stream vort which will be the major key to this storm is way too fast on the Euro and why whatever storm develops is way out to sea. The incoming trough acts more like a kicker here.
  10. NJwx85
    I don't think this is going West of the mountains but I think a costal hugger or a track right overhead like you said is certainly within the range of possibilities.
  11. NJwx85
    The key piece here is the Southern vort near Texas on Monday. That has to get out ahead of the deepening trough coming down from the Plains. If that piece is too far out ahead it will get kicked OTS. If too slow we will have a cutter. This is far from a slam dunk. Right now it's a bit too far out ahead so the system deepens more after it passes us and closes off over Maine. First shot at a true Miller A this season.
  12. NJwx85
    Problem will be the Passaic River which is still rising and not forecasted to crest until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Any additional rain will prolong the major flooding into early next week as indicated on the hydrograph predictions.
  13. NJwx85
    After the Mother of all snowstorms a few weeks prior.
  14. NJwx85
    This is typical of a moderate to strong El Nino. Warm, wet pattern with lots of storm chances and not much cold air.
  15. NJwx85
    A lot of the river areas in Northern NJ were resort areas for people in the city during the 40's and 50's when people would vacation out in the country. That is when a lot of these areas were built up. It was a quiet period without a lot of major flooding and you could actually swim and fish in the Pompton river without fear. My Dad grew up in the Sam's Maple Grove section of Lincoln Park and would tell stories about swimming in the river as a kid. Then the 60's were bad with floods with 1968 being the worst. And then you had an almost 20 year quiet period until the big flood of 1984 which set records that were only broken with Irene in 2011. That's the problem. You can sometimes get a 10-20 year stretch with no issues and then a period like this happens with two major floods in less than a month and the potential for more in this pattern. The house my Dad grew up in was finally knocked down after Irene. My Grandfather and three of my Dad's uncles helped build the majority of the houses back there. Not much of what was there is still standing.
  16. NJwx85
    After Irene FEMA finally came in and moved people out of the hardest hit areas. It's not as easy as it sounds. People are stubborn and don't want to leave. It's not just homes that are hit hard. The Pompton and Passaic rivers both impact highways and businesses. Rt 23 is now shutdown in both directions in Pequannock Township. If you're not familiar with the area you wouldn't know but this is the major artery that connects Rt 80/46 with I-287 and points North and West.
  17. NJwx85
    My snowpack is also completely gone with the exception of a few small piles. It was still mostly intact as of 6PM last night.
  18. NJwx85
    I think the wind had an easier time in areas closest to the river. So that explains why Nyack, Tappan had more damage than areas even a few miles further West.
  19. NJwx85
    06z globals pretty locked in on another 1-2" areawide, however it looks like SNE might take the brunt of it instead of us.
  20. NJwx85
    I'm in Bardonia just off 304 and the wind here wasn't crazy. The power flickered around 10:30 but that was it. I feel the wind was stronger in the December storm. The rain performed as forecasted. My hometown of Pompton Plains is completely flooded this morning.
  21. NJwx85
    This is going to clear Western areas by midnight.
  22. NJwx85
    It’s moving fast. Back edge has cleared DC already.
  23. NJwx85
    Do you fly for JetBlue?
  24. NJwx85
    Heavy rain is building in VA. That’s coming up here next 6-10 hours. Numerous FFW now.
  25. NJwx85
    It would be a bust for the rest of the area. I am expecting stronger winds than that and I am well inland.
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