NJwx85

I can honestly say, nobody here cares about what a TV met has to say. He can't go out and start talking about feet of snow at this range. Ever since they got burned so badly with January 2015, just about every public met has taken a very conservative approach until the very last minute.

I think, could be wrong, that the NW cutoff will be less because this isn't a true Miller A. The inverted trough is still a bit of a wild card.

For this to be a big storm, we had to get at least one insane NAM run. If it looked more like the Euro I would have been worried. Now have to hope the GFS holds.

Just about the entire forum is 2"+ of liquid and the deformation banding is insane. Anyone under that band will get 2-4" per hour for several hours.

Put this one into the spank bank

As textbook as it gets for this type of system.

This is not enough the correct run.

This should be NW of 12z.

My first call:

That was a true Miller A with a big, deep trough that cutoff over the TN Valley, however the abrupt cutoff is similar to what we will see with this storm.

My wife teaches at a public school in Rockland County and her last day this year is June 26th, which is borderline ridiculous. When I went to school in Northern NJ we were done by the third week in June. They eliminated February Winter break in the early 2000's when we had a really bad winter and ended up having to give it completely back for snow days. I know NY still does the February break which I don't understand either. They got almost 2 weeks off at the end of January and then most years a week to ten days again at the end of March or early April.

This is still playing it pretty conservative for our area. I told my Wife "12 to 18 inches" and she said, "In your dreams" LOL

A lot more West leaning members in the GEFS than the previous run. Several are West of the OP.

The 12z UKMET which has a known SE bias is well NW of the 00z run.

Hard to see, but here are the 12z GEFS at hr 60. Some big hits in there. GFS PRS ENSEMBLE (HOUR 60)

You're what's commonly referred to as a jinx.

Canadian moving towards the GFS.

If the GFS is correct, it will be puking snow for about an 8-12hr period on Sunday night.

Okay, I'm officially excited. Almost 2" liquid into NYC and 1"+ back into PA and Upstate NY.

Since it will be asked, looks like start time would be Sunday early afternoon, from Southwest to Northeast. Heaviest snow would be Sunday evening/night with most of it over by this time on Monday with some residual bands possible as the storm starts to rot just East of the benchmark.

This run occludes about 6 hours later so the deformation banding is able to get further North and West. So just about everyone here would be looking at 12-18" with locally up to 30" possible under the heaviest banding, most likely Suffolk County.

I don't care what the clown maps show, 2-4" per hour under this banding.

990mb to 976mb six hours later lol.