KeenerWx

Looking forward to the possibility of some spicy booms.

Ready for some more thunder!

Had one fly into my face this afternoon. Thought I might have been about to start the sting tally early this year.

‘13-‘14 taught me that I have a limit with enjoying winter. Something I never would have thought possible up to that point. I “burnt out” after that season. Coincidently moved to Texas in early ‘14 summer. Not because of the weather, but certainly didn’t miss MW/GL winter the couple years I was there.

Near normal snowfall. Near normal days of measurable snow. Below normal days with snow depth exceeding 1”. Pro: Reeling in the late month storm. Not the most exciting but was nice to have 24+ hours of snow globe. Con: First half of the month was exceptionally dull. C-

Looks like primary threat zone shifted east a bit and now looks to center comfortably in Porter County or perhaps even on the line between Porter & LaPorte. Maybe even a bit questionable the extent of plume organization overnight, but of course, even a couple hours of LE can add up.

What’s the point? A large population cannot even comprehend probabilities at their most simple application. Weather based probabilities already introduce a different dimension where product/forecast type and area coverage muddy how one would interpret the chance that x outcome happens specifically at their location. Ask a person what a 60% probability of an event happening within 25 miles of them means. Not a damn clue. This added level of complexity, then, cannot be for the benefit of the public. Suppose it’s a more hyper specific mode of grading forecasts internally?

Rather localized and uncertain on extent of impact. Potential exists, but I’m not seeing a bonafide signal for robust stationary S/SW lake response. We shall see as it becomes more immediate. Much less enthusiastic about inland push of significance than LOT seems to be. But I’m not a met for good reason

While there have been notably boring stretches this season, I think the floor would be a “C” grade locally. Tracking fairly well on days with snow cover, measurable days, # of significant events, and progress towards seasonal total. Without the once-in-a-lifetime November, this would be a much different story. But it’s nice not to look down the pipe and expect another “F”.

4.5” so far. Shouldn’t have a problem getting into 5-6” range.

Approaching 3” here on the northern fringes. CAMs suggest possibly 3-5” left in the tank. Often performative and too aggressive, but cutting in half still results in a respectful 4-5” storm total. Became a bit too pessimistic given endless sawdust.

Under banding as well and confirm it’s quite nice. Still feel a little nervous about hitting call of 3.9” but we’ll see how things evolve overnight.

WWA issued locally for 4-7”. Tough forecast on the northern fringes, as alluded to in the LOT AFD. Lake influence will make it increasingly difficult to nail down.

Still looks good. Will go 3.9” final call. Let’s go!

Liking 2-5” locally.

Some modeling suggests strong CME impact tomorrow/tomorrow night. Weather permitting, puts another shot at getting lights across the region.

Lake scraps as I’m winding down for the night. Maybe we get lucky and grab an inch overnight. Regardless, it looks pretty!

Yeah looks about 5-10 miles wide atm. Best of luck on adding to your stack!

Damn, very nice!

Not buying latest run of HRRR verbatim, but would be a big time heartbreaker if it came true. 18-20” a mere 8-10 miles to my east. I could drive but if it’s “too impressive”, I don’t know that I’d risk it given limited & delayed snow treatment on roads in these parts.

Happy that the CAMs nudged a little east over the day. They were hinting at a local miss by ~10 miles for the heavier stuff. I know that’s the way it plays with LE. But the psychology of this hobby makes it more preferable that any miss is wide. Anyway, it’s always fun to see some of the output as we get closer. Even though some are notoriously over-juiced. Big time heartbreaker for Michigan City area in this particular outcome.

Pretty impressive LE signal on the globals for Wed/Thu, targeting a corridor from NW Indiana into NE Illinois. Probably won’t read deeper into it until Monday, but definitely tuned in.

Looks like someone put a heavy caking of window spray snow on everything outside. Nice evening.

Nice snowy scene outside even though it’s not stacking.

Ended up with a couple nice boomers, tor watch and warning. Pretty solid day. Gonna hop in the hot tub after a bit and enjoy the temp drop.