downeastnc

From Frazdaddy he can give better details to the where....

Tornado damage reported in Swan Quarter....question is whether it was a waterspout or true tornado....what say you?

There are a ton of reasons to not buy in totally to the NAM, but even if its over done by half thats still a rough day.....really I think its a safe bet that at the minimum we see several broken line segments all of which will produce severe criteria wind gust over a fairly large area, it should not be hard to get some impressive winds to the surface given the wind field aloft......the real question is do we get enough instability to fire those semi discrete supes with a leeside surface low.....

18Z NAM is just a wee bit concerning.........seriously some of the most insane sounding for NC you will ever see....also this line of semi discrete cells over central eastern NC would be exactly the kind of stuff we don't wanna see.....then the line its self is gonna be crazy efficient at getting those 70-80 knt winds just off the surface down.....could be a heck of a event if the NAM is right.

RAH AFD this afternoon highlights the main points rather well....... The beginning of the long term continues to be the time of interest as a maturing mid-level cyclone moves over the Ohio Valley. Friday morning a low level stratus deck will likely be in place which will help to create a differential heating boundary across the CWA. The NAM at this time also indicates a weak confluence boundary over the CWA. These multiple mesoscale boundaries will likely play a key role in how Friday develops. Friday afternoon PWATs will continue to rise and approach 1.7" as strong low level southerly flow helps to advect moisture into central North Carolina. These type of PWATs would be a monthly record. A surface low will then form across western North Carolina Friday afternoon into evening and pinwheel northeast as the mid-level low takes on a negative tilt. SFC to 3 km shear values are again extremely impressive with values around 40 kts. Instability with the system remains in question. MU CAPE values on the GFS are in general less than 1000 J/kg while MU CAPE values on the NAM are more around 2000 J/kg. The main threats with this system will be damaging wind gusts (owing to the extremely strong low level flow), heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes. SPC currently has the area outlooked in a Day 3 enhanced.

This setup has tons of potential to be epic or to bust....if we manage to get breaks in the clouds and can get any kind of real instability like the NAM has, plus some kind of surface low reflection over the upstate of SC to back the winds then Friday could be epic.......it could also stay cloudy all day and be a typical skinny cape high shear squall line that gives sporadic bowing segments with winds 60-70 mph.....but overall a meh day.

SPC write up for Friday included this.... ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper trough extending along the MS Valley early Friday morning is expected to continue eastward, maturing into a well-formed mid-latitude cyclone centered over the southern Appalachians by the end of the period. Very strong flow aloft will exist throughout the base of the upper trough, with the strongest flow developing within its eastern periphery Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday morning. 500-mb flow could exceed 100 kt, which is near record values across the Carolinas and into the mid-Atlantic based on SPC sounding climatology. In contrast to these impressive dynamics, overall thermodynamic environment will be marginal. Given that ample low-level moisture will be in place (i.e. dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s and 100-mb mean mixing ratios over 12 g/kg), the modest instability is largely a result of warm temperatures aloft and consequent poor lapse rates.

Tor warned cell headed for Hickory.....couplet looked decent over Valdese is weaker now.....

SPC left tomorrow as a mod risk but man things could get ugly fast in Dixie alley and there will unfortunately probably be several long track strong tornados tomorrow, for us here in NC its much more murky....

Latest NAM is pretty nasty for most of the SE this weekend into Monday morning....not sure how bad it would truly be in NC Sunday night but the soundings and stuff look rough....night time tornadic storms are the worse.

84 over 61 waiting to see if these storms will hold up......

Destabilizing quickly in eastern NC.....cape coming up fast, mid level lapse rates are good as usual the big wrench in the cogs is the shear.....20-25knts right now is not exactly blowing the doors off.....

Video from Columbus MS looks pretty bad

James Spann saying debris up to 14k.......

There is a tornado doing damage in and around Columbus, very strong TDS now.....

TDS over Columbus, MS .....

He also had a 2 months medical leave early in 2018, he also mentions "personal challenges" which many times means some kind of substance or alcohol issues maybe....either way its his business and he will be missed. Now we have lost Skip Waters and Greg is leaving so there are not many old timers left.

Now this is cold....Staples WI right now.... wind chill -64 lol eff that..... Fair -33°F -36°C Humidity 60% Wind Speed NW 18 G 23 mph Barometer 30.14 in Dewpoint -42°F (-41°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Wind Chill -64°F (-53°C) Last update 29 Jan 8:16 pm CST

Red Sox won the WS and now the Pats are SB bound.....got a lot of folks to hit up at work tomorrow that talked a lot of smack, going to be a good day.

ULL are fun but frustrating....models tend to do pretty badly with them as far as how intense they can be....like several have mentioned some big snows have happened in NC due to a ULL dropping in like this.....you just never know what they will do for sure. No one should expect more than say 1-2" but there could easily be a few spots that win out and get over that.....

I will take the 18Z NAM 3k.....obviously overdone as it has a heavy "band" of snow just sitting over central eastern NC..... but I need it to be right.....

The FV3, ICON and HRRR all have something similar to lesser degrees....temps will be a problem and overall it probably wont be a big deal but some models do put down a few inches....

GFS 24 hr snowfall for the second system.....this shouldnt include anything from today

Thats the thing, a few degrees one way or the other is gonna be huge for many people....even down my way a few degrees colder aloft and we could get several inches or more of snow/sleet. The flip side to that though is a few degrees warmer aloft and its sleet on top of above freezing surface temps well inland.....and all rain for us eastern folks. Need the suppressed track to win out, can not have the low right off the coast that never works out well for anyone other than the deep inland foothill areas.