Runman292

Newest AFD from MRX: Cumulus development is ongoing across central Kentucky which is increasing confidence that the ingredients needed to create a severe weather event are actually materializing this morning. Initiating is ongoing near the strengthening LLJ as the aggressive shortwave moves through. Mesoanalysis shows that all the severe parameters are impressive this morning and with clouds clearing out this morning the debris CU doesn`t look like it`s going to get in the way of increasing instability in the low levels of the atmosphere. All weather threats are possible today, including rotating supercells. Based on current radar trends and refreshed CAMs the timing of incoming storms has slowed down just a tad compared to previous forecast with storms looking to move onto the plateau around noon and quickly moving eastward, pushing east of the mountains before sunset. Main weather message for today is to keep an eye radar and the latest warnings, especially for the commute home from school or work as this is the peak time frame for severe storms.

Not liking the fact that MRX is highlighting an increased hail threat in their afternoon AFD.

Enhanced risk for most of TN including the western half of East TN this evening. ...Mid-South/TN Valley region through tonight... Around the southern periphery of a closed midlevel low over the upper Great Lakes, embedded shortwave troughs will move eastward over the lower OH and TN Valleys through early tonight. An associated surface cyclone will likewise develop eastward along and just north of the OH River, as a trailing pre-frontal trough and cold front move southeastward across the Mid-South and southern Plains through tonight. Clouds are fairly widespread as of late morning from the southern Appalachians northward into the OH Valley and westward into the mid MS Valley. A little south of the thicker clouds and surface cyclone track, there is a corridor of stronger surface heating from south central KY into the Mid-South, where temperatures will warm into the 80s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints. These surface conditions beneath midlevel lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will drive MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon in the zone of weak low-level confluence/convergence associated with an embedded midlevel speed max, along the edge of the thicker clouds from central KY into western TN and AR. The moderate-strong buoyancy and midlevel flow near 40 kt will support a mix of multicell clusters/line segments capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. There will be somewhat stronger deep-layer flow/shear and a little greater potential for supercells across the Mid-South later this afternoon/evening. The convection will continue to spread eastward and southeastward across the TN Valley early tonight, with some continued damaging-wind threat. Other scattered thunderstorms could form this afternoon/evening to the west of the thicker clouds across the southern Appalachians. The stronger wind profiles/vertical shear will be west and north of this area through the afternoon, so the primary severe threats will be damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail this afternoon/evening. Uncertainty increases with eastward extent due to the widespread clouds/rain from northeast GA into western NC and vicinity, and the primary increase in flow/shear will tend to occur after the muted diurnal cycle.

Scratch my last post. It is a good snow showering in North Knoxville at my church.

Flurries in North Knoxville.

97 mph wind gust reported at cove mountain.

The sun is out in Farragut and it is very windy.

Tornado watch for the rest of Middle TN into the western half of East TN until 5:00 PM EST

The last time a High Wind Warning was issued for all of East TN was 2006.

Something I found interesting in MRX'S AFD and the most recent day 1 outlook from the SPC is the wording "Winds may be strong enough to tear apart storms and keep them from becoming mature." Can anyone explain to me how that works?

MRX AFD: For Friday, the upper level system and associated strong cyclogenesis will lift northeast toward the Ohio valley. Impressive 850-700mb jet with NAEFS showing anomaly high wind field over the Tennessee valley. The 850mb jet of 75kts+ will move across the region with strong momentum transfer of the low-level jet to the surface. Even though the wind gusts of 50-60 mph in the valley may be below warning criteria, saturated ground will make conditions more susceptible to down trees and power lines. Power outages Friday are likely. Beside the gradient induced high winds, a severe threat also exists. Damaging straight line will be the main concern. Isolated tornadoes are also possible as 0-1km and effective shear are off the charts. Limiting factors are the low-CAPE and possible high LCL heights. Also, the strongest of the synoptic forcing lift north of the area. Will need to monitor the potential of tornadoes closely. Latest HRRR model does show an increasing potential but HREF CAMS showed the best 2-5km updraft helicity tracks over Kentucky.

What does this mean?

Maybe it is just me, but it does seem like most setups for severe weather in East TN is either High shear/Low CAPE or vice versa. Is the terrain the primary reason why East TN rarely gets both parameters strong at the same time?

All rain in Oak Ridge with the sun coming out. Wasn't expecting snow, so I can't really say that I'm disappointed.

Here's the official storm Survey from Morristown for the severe storms that rolled thru: Damage Survey for 01/12/2023 Tornado Event... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms moved across the area during the late morning and early afternoon hours of January 12, 2023. Several bowing segments within the line products severe thunderstorm wind damage. Three quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) tornadoes were surveyed. ..Decatur 1 SW Tornado... Rating: EF0 Estimated Peak Wind: 75 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.57 miles Path Width /maximum/: 150.0 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 1 Start Date: 01/12/2023 Start Time: 11:50 AM EST Start Location: 2 SSW Decatur / Meigs County / TN Start Lat/Lon: 35.4992 / -84.8043 End Date: 01/12/2023 End Time: 11:51 AM EST End Location: 1 S Decatur / Meigs County / TN End Lat/Lon: 35.5022 / -84.7951 Survey Summary: Straight line winds were observed to have caused several downed trees and minor outbuilding damage near Decatur Creek and Goodfield Road. A tornado developed just southwest of the corner of Sharp Road and Highway 58 as a convergent pattern in the damage path was observed. This tornado tracked northeast across Highway 58 and ended just south of Crestview Lane. ..Dandridge 5 WSW Tornado... Rating: EF0 Estimated Peak Wind: 70 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.42 miles Path Width /maximum/: 30 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 01/12/2023 Start Time: 01:14 PM EST Start Location: 3 SSE Piedmont / Jefferson County / TN Start Lat/Lon: 35.975 / -83.5085 End Date: 01/12/2023 End Time: 01:15 PM EST End Location: 3 SSE Piedmont / Jefferson County / TN End Lat/Lon: 35.9773 / -83.5015 Survey Summary: The tornado developed west of Dandridge and crossed Deep Springs Road. It dissipated on the east side of Deep Springs Road near Ranch Road. ..Baneberry 1 SE Tornado... Rating: EF0 Estimated Peak Wind: 80 mph Path Length /statute/: 1.1 miles Path Width /maximum/: 100 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 01/12/2023 Start Time: 01:26 PM EST Start Location: 3 SSE White Pine / Jefferson County / TN Start Lat/Lon: 36.0511 / -83.2732 End Date: 01/12/2023 End Time: 01:28 PM EST End Location: 4 SE White Pine / Jefferson County / TN End Lat/Lon: 36.0566 / -83.254 Survey Summary: The tornado touched down near Harrison Ferry Road and moved ENE toward Highway 25E. It crossed the highway with downed trees and power lines before dissipating on the east side of Highway 25E.

Basically been rain in Turkey Creek (Farragut).

Snow hole over Oak Ridge? Sounds accurate, lol.

I think I might have literally saw 3 flurry flakes and that was it.

I wish I would have stayed in Oak Ridge, but I had to go to my family's place to celebrate Christmas and miss out on the snow (I would have thought I would be in a good spot for a clipper in Campbell County, but not the case this time). I'm glad everyone else got to see some snow.

Picked the wrong time to visit my family's place in La Follette to see snow, lol.

MRX is now mentioning the clipper, but appears to be brushing it off as a non story. In the upper levels, a potent short wave will move through the region Monday and Monday night. Some snow flurries will be possible mainly in the mountains. The best chance for a light snow shower will be in the northern Cumberland Plateau counties and Lee and Wise counties in Virginia. Little to no accumulation is expected with a dry air mass in place.

MRX isn't even mentioning the clipper in their latest AFD.

Wow, this is crazy! This is the forecast for Clingman's Dome tomorrow.

Speaking of historical cold, when was the last time all of TN had a wind chill warning?

I am dreading having to work outside on Friday and Saturday from 10 am to 7 pm. I'm probably going to be frozen in place at my work, lol.