leo2000

Well the GEFS ensembles were showing the cold coming in around the 8th of January now its moving it until at least the 12th of January. THE GEPS has slowed down the advancing of Arctic air as well on it's ensembles. I smell a big ratter. Matt Hugo @MattHugo81 · 9h (2/2) While the opportunity for cold weather remains during the first half of Jan in particular we are closing in on the key period for winter & it doesn't look good - mentioned this the other wk but a falling AAM profile coupled with a strong vortex = +NAO outlook for mid-winter

Yeah the ground didn't even really freeze here yet. The temperatures have been up and down way too much. I think I might just to put a fork in this winter. Things were finally looking so much better yesterday with signs of a positive PNA. Now everything seems to be pushing back a lot.

Take a look at the end of the 12Z EPS. What is that to my eye?. A +PNA.

Any breakdown of the -PNA?. .

Yeah super duper El Nino means very very warm winter.

That was a very snowy GFS 18z Op run there. Not just that but a hint of a positive PNA as well.

Hey guys good news for us it looks like. The WPO turns sharply negative. Overnight runs of at least the GEPS and GEFS ensembles also restrengthen the negative -NAO and -AO too. The RNA pattern looks to relax as well. The CFS Daily

True, but we haven't been doing good at all here either. Newfoundland yes has in this pattern.

Ok well it continues the big RNA pattern.

I have noticed no one posted the Weeklies hint hint don't look lol.

When is that?.

I will admit I used to be a bridge jumper on here. Not anymore trying to have more patience. I know people talk about a positive PNA a lot but things could be worse. We could have a positive NAO, positive AO, positive EPO and a positive PNA.

The MJO looks to be finally going into Phase 8.

Yesterday looked like the MJO was going to stall in Phase 7 now it looks like it moving along to Phase 8.

No cold air?. You can clearly see the injection of cold air in Central New Brunswick like I said it wouldn't take much of a shift in the storm track to change this from being rain to snow.

Ugh move that system more to the south and east and I would be in business.

Haha, here is the real temperatures at the surface.

Yeah I think the CFS got the right idea here as it keeps the SE Ridge from pumping up.

Oh how I wish for the Christmases of Old. A good song and fits perfectly with how I am feeling. Let's get these Miller B's up and running.

I guess you haven't seen this tweet. The models continue to show the MJO moving slowly through phase 7 over the next 2 weeks. It would likely not reach p8 till early January.

That depends on how long the MJO stays in phases 7 then to 8.

What is that? lol. A blue nose bomber.

All I want for Christmas is a nuke Blizzard!

Yeah 18z gfs looks yucky lol. Here comes the Grinch lol.

If we can get big jabs to the PV the pattern should last longer than just a couple of weeks. Also if the MJO gets struck in phases 7-8-1 and stays there. I really like the look of this cold just before Christmas. All credit goes to Bamwx.