leo2000

Enjoy the suppose record cold 3.4 Enso as the chart I sent you shows a dramatic weakening of the La Nina.

Enjoy it Met DT has posted just awhile ago on another sub forum. He showed a model directly from ecmwf which shows a dramatic weakening of the Moderate La Nina. IN MAJOR DEVELOPMENT the ecmwf enso model shwos DRAMATIC WEAKENING of the Moderate La Nina. It is hard to understate how BIG this is...or COULD be... a rapidly weakening La Nina... in essence a WEAK La nina combined with SSW EVENT t

Pacific not completely hostile we have a -WPO.

Seems like the MJO is stuck in phases 4-5. Do you think the negative WPO will help offset some of the positive EPO warmth?.

Mmm the EPS is suppose to tank the NAO negative which would fight the pac puke.

Some Christmas hope! New run ] Old run

On to February then March then to next summer and so on. Winter seems like it doesn't exist anymore.

Hmm seems the EPS 12Z is heading in the wrong direction it was showing cold around this time period yesterday and has backed off of it.

Question if its a big if but if a split happens what would that do to La Nina/ MJO?

What is happening here?. Looking likes warm warm in the East mid month.

Maybe or could have been because of the Polar Vortex taking hits and being stretched. MAJOR trend from 49% to 70% of the 103 global ensembles in 12 hrs for a -AO from 12-13-20 and beyond. Colder risks mid month drastically increasing. Details in my video coming in http://Bamwx.com video here soon. #natgas #oott #energy

Wouldn't think be a Major SSW event?

Maybe I can get a response from you but if this comes to fruition. Would this mute the La Nina base state from coming back?. Also mute MJO from going into phases 4-6. Thanks.

How is the 12z EPS long range?

Merry Christmas the Sh$$ter was full. The new GEFS is starting to see a *potential* sudden stratospheric warming event within the next 10 days. As the North Pacific pattern starts to feature some blocking (-EPO) its going to doing some serious work on the #PolarVortex. This is something to watch closely. #natgas

See new Tweets Tweet Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx · 1h Another extended-range update from ECMWF with the ensemble-mean predicting the transition to a persistent weaker-than-average stratospheric vortex beginning mid-month. I'd take that...

Hey guys is the PV splitting?. https://www.stormgeo.com/weather/articles/what-is-the-polar-vortex-and-what-does-it-mean-that-it-has-split/

How is the long range looking on the 12z Euro?.

I think they are talking about the MJO going into phases 4-6 and the Strong La Nina base state. But there is a lot of uncertainty there. The same statistical algorithm that weeks ago projected the upcoming wild pattern in the eastern US now projects this for the end of December. (Shown is 200 hPa height anomalies, red positive). ( Courtesy of Paul Roundy on Twitter).

Any -EPO. Really need to get rid of that Pac puke.

Uncle Leo is here to the rescue. People need to be patient it will snow eventually. I know it's hard with Covid and last winter's disaster.