leo2000

It depends though it has apparently happened in one week a couple of times before. Other times 2-3 weeks roughly. January 2019 wasn't a very strong warming either this one is a very very strong warming.

I never been much for New Year's just another year to me.

I heard it only takes 10-14 days. With the Blocking continuing it should hook up with the SSW causing the coupling.

The Major SSW is coming hopefully it can shake things up before the Middle of the Month. As the lag is not really long after it happens.

It's rather ironic that we used to on here ask for the Atlantic to cooperate now we need the Pacific and no help whatsoever.

Yeah but a positive EAMT is usually followed by a extended Pacific jet that usually translates into a Aleutian low and usually pops a +PNA and sometimes a -EPO.

The Pac jet is expected to retract by the end of the first week of January. The fun apparently starts after the first week of January for winter weather.

Oh yes your right!

That gfs para was ugly.

Lots of blocking?. Just need coastals that give us snow instead of rain. Of course track will matter.

Whoa hehe

I loved the 14-15 winter hopefully this winter can be like that winter.

Would this be bad or good for the east coast US? Some are saying the lag may not be long either because of the blocking pattern that is in effect. Matt Hugo @MattHugo81 · 18m 12Z GFS ENS maintaining the cold signal as well for the rest of the year especially across more northern and western areas of the UK. Modest high ground of #Scotland #Ireland #NEngland and #Wales could end up with a lot of snow between Christmas and New Year. #onetowatch 2 14 Matt Hugo @MattHugo81 · 21m GFS maintaining the persistent signal for the strat vortex to breakdown and while right at the end of the run its showing the long predicted SSW into early Jan...

Won't matter much if we get the annual grinch storm on Christmas!

Two periods to watch 20th-23rd and 24th-25th time frame and lots of others afterwards. Plenty of time to go yet to say we may have a cutter at Christmas. Could be a coastal.

You guys may fair very well with this storm. Looks like it may fall apart as it gets to my area. Hopefully one of the storms can be wintry for my area before Christmas.

Why not?, Jan and Feb could be good too and March can be bad.

The GFS Para seems to have a better handle on the storm. The GFS seems to make it almost fall apart and weaken and move more out to sea.

A big change in the CFS weeklies for January much colder! and the CFS monthly as well for January.

Grinch storm just went to Santa Bomb.

It would be nice to get a -EPO, -PNA, -AO and -NAO. A east based negative NAO would be better than a west based one.

I really don't know just passed along from a twitter user. He seems to read up on the QBO a lot. https://twitter.com/Antonio80288901

This is very interesting a -QBO Antonio Federici @Antonio80288901 · 7h The negative phase of QBO accelerates its descent. This could help the two wave action against the polar vortex. #PolarVortex #SSW #QBO @PvForecast