leo2000

Nice map, also looks like the MJO is going into phase 5 which is good for cold weather here in December. This is around the 23rd. However, we have to watch a possible vortex displacement even a complete split. This would likely halt this warm pattern has is coming up.

Say goodbye to the pig. That's can't be a negative EPO showing up is it now? Plus we don't have a raging positive NAO too worry about either like last year. Forecasts of 500mb Height Teleconnection Indices, from ESRL/PSD GEFS Reforecast2 Data

Well I respect Orh Wxman, and Coaster WX expert opinions on this. I am leaning more toward Isotherm's own expert opinion when he says that the EPS has a bias of overdoing geopotential heights over the East. As well as overestimating the low-magnitude MJO signal and goes on to say that the ""GFS based guidance will once again prove superior in the LR". Another expert opinion I agree with is PB GFI as well as SnowyHibbo. Here says This is the last example, but if we ignore the models past bias we will make the same mistakes in the future. The model does hit forecasts, I am not saying that but this corrected from a 500 that is a lot worse than where the negatives are now forecast in the EP on its new 11 to 15 Again the problem is washing troughs out on the EC. When I see the new 11 - 15 I don't buy it.

Mike Ventrice has a bias against snow and cold . Plus we know that the EPS has a bias toward a positive EPO too. Oh where did that warm pattern go lol. The GEPS agrees with the GEFS

How is your blizzard coming along?

Look's pretty juicy to me.

Now that is better by the way it's not just the 384 hour either. Much improved December 18 too onward.

It looks like Saint John's Newfoundland will get hammered tomorrow with lots of snow and lots of wind.

Now now you know you love this song very much. The Weeklies look very nice by the way. The latest GEFS 18Z continues the trend of retrograding the Goa Trough.

Yes I know that but the blue anomalies are coming up from the south. We don't need it super cold anyways for snow just normal temperatures are good enough before Christmas.

What a way to run a warm up looks like a few days. Looks like the cold comes back before Christmas.

Here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

 The overnight EPS echoes however the recent GEFS models. They are not at all bullish on the warm pattern any more than just a few days before the ridge signal keeps moving out east of the Maritimes. The pattern looks to be running out of steam as the GEFS models show higher heights over Western North America. EURO goes to the round with a weak sauce wave: EMON is like EURO Japs (JMA) say we support you Americans and GEFS:  All credit goes to amugs from 33andrain as well as Jack Sillin

Because, I don't see those yellow orange colors over my area and your area but more westward. I thought maybe that means a bit of a mute.

Wow now it looks like the pattern relaxation may indeed be muted. We will have to see if this is a real trend or not.

It's looking like a torch now couldn't get better teleconnections for a full blown torch than what I seen today.

I hear the El Nino has turn into a basin wide event. Even HM on Twitter is confirming that now from a Modoki El Nino. Vogt WeatherWatcher‏ @VWeatherWatcher 1h1 hour ago More Replying to @antmasiello Correct me if I am wrong, but I do not think the meteorological community (notably, private mets) was expecting a canonical El Nino to develop -- a lot were banking on a Modoki... I wonder how this will impact winter forecasts, or if the canonical orientation is temporary. 2 replies0 retweets0 likes Reply 2 Retweet Like Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 1h1 hour ago More I just meant in terms of N. American temperature anomalies /+NPO. 1 reply0 retweets4 likes Reply 1 Retweet Like 4 Vogt WeatherWatcher‏ @VWeatherWatcher 1h1 hour ago More Gotchya. Still though, this SST setup doesn't look like a Modoki El Nino to me. 1 reply0 retweets1 like Reply 1 Retweet Like 1 Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 1h1 hour ago More Its development was consistent with that of the PMM / Modoki-esque warm pool EOFs back in the warm season. But yes, since then, it has become a basin-wide event. Its development was similar to other PMM events like 2014. 1 reply0 retweets2 likes Reply 1 Retweet Like 2

Here are the weeklies that I got from another forum. All credit goes out PB GFI. As you can see what was once feared to be a pig is a somewhat of a moderation but that time period it shrinking as well as temperatures return back to normal temperatures by week 4.

The warmth is still way out in lunchland.

Sure was a beast lots of very heavy wet snow like cement blocks.

The Pig +EPO has been stucked in this timeframe for several days now.

Don't worry folks an epic cage match is coming up More Looks like December will feature an epic cage match between the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the #PolarVortex. The dynamical models are picking the MJO as the winner but who do I think might win domination of our #weather? https://bit.ly/2DVbhhg

Or May lol

It was saying that last time in weeks 3-4.