leo2000

First of all, it's only November. Sir the major pattern doesn't look like it's coming to materialize. As it's a fake -EPO not a real one like last winter. But then again this is the 2nd year of a two year La Nina. If things are going to go real bad and we get some really warm temps might as well get them now. So just before Christmas the goods can come.

The CFS

I really hope we have a White Christmas this year for once.

Yes indeed very heavy snow bands to come too.

I never knew I was a clown lol.

Talk about a epic blizzard if this happens. Most likely won't but fun to look at. This one is closer it could happen

The Euro Weeklies look very good!

They are stealing all of our snow!

Just curious what teleconnections did we have for the 2014-2015 winter because as we all know it was very epic.

Hasn't the GEFS been more right though this winter so far?. Plus there was an improvement on the 12z EPS vs 00Z EPS. With some higher heights over AK. Also the -NAO suppresses the Southeast Ridge Paul Roundy @PaulRoundy1 · 11h Replying to @MJVentrice MJO signal (independent from the base state, which resists this outcome), suggests a western N. America ridge: http://http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

The weeklies still trying to bring La Nina pattern on Feb 2nd onward. Though a -NAO looks to persist.

It looks like all of February will be very good as well. January update to @ECMWF SEAS5 showing strong support for a negative NAO during Jan & Feb. I suspect that the shift from previous forecasts arises from the now sig. weakened strat vortex, for which there was not a strong signal in the Dec fcst (although some suggestion).

Thank you very much!. Very nice.

How are the weeklies looking?.

He's a Climatologist http://www.judahcohen.org/

What are you talking about Tip?. The GFS op models?. If so they can't handle the blocking going on. The NAO west based block is going nowhere's and the pacific is improving a lot too.

Nice snowstorm in my area today!.

Yes it looks like it for real this now. Two weeks after a SSW peaks (in the Siberian cases, only) This information and model is from Met Michael Ventrice on Twitter. He is also doesn't have a weenie bias. He calls it how he sees it.

it is very very unlikely to reconsolidate it is taking massive hits. Sudden stratospheric warming is underway! Here's a selection of radiosonde ascents from Russia & Mongolia at 12Z today, which captured the warming in the mid-stratosphere. http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html… Replying to @SimonLeeWx If the ECMWF is correct, we have good conditions for a SSW with downward impact! European blocking is the best precursor for a NAO- response (see https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020… with @cgrams_lsdp and L. Papritz), and it's predicted for the first week of January! https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-regime-probabilities?forecast_from=latest…

It is coming from Siberia it's called a Siberian SSW.

it looks like the Major SSW is trying to couple with the 500mb pattern as it improves.

Looking better in the long range.

Not just JB I realize he has a major bias toward cold and snow but Michael Ventrice also supports the view too. He is a more neutral Met or another follows what the models show.

That is why we need help from a Major SSW as with La Nina's usually favor lower heights over Alaska. The La Nina is expected to weaken which should help with higher heights over Alaska. Which is what we want for a -EPO to develop. This 12z GEFS looks real nice. The affects of the Major SSW is already effecting Europe. It will wait until after January 5th for the Eastern US/Eastern Canada. We should be in business by Mid January.

I think this winter may resemble 2014-2015 if so that when the polar vortex was responsible for a cold and snowy winter.