leo2000

Lol are you telling me it's normal to get rain in January?. Lol.

I know many are mentioning how good of a pattern this is. But if it's a very good pattern for snow and cold we wouldn't be have cutters showing up periodically. 2014-2015 didn't have any cutters. All big coastal blizzard like snowstorms.

Haha, the CFS has a completely different take on the pattern.

The La Nina never coupled this year. The CFS Daily looks nice

Most La Nina have warm Februaries?. They didn't last year and yes we had a La Nina last year too.

I think this storm could be a whopper of a Blizzard two feet of snow possible.

So we get a decent +PNA, -EPO?. +NAO to -NAO?.

If this run is correct that would be my hunch come true. Given how bad the Pacific has been do we really think we are going to have a positive PNA and negative EPO. Nah looks like a positive PNA there and a big positive EPO.

They did?.

What happened last winter and yes it was a La Nina last year too. The La Nina is slowly starting to die out.

Winters are usually back loaded now anyways. Front loaded winters seem to be a thing of the past.

Any favorite pattern change lol is over before it even begins according to these guys. Eric Webb @webberweather · 4h I generally agree. While the GEFS has been overzealous in the medium range of late trying to bring back the GOA ridge, the lower freq evolution of the troposphere & stratosphere suggest a prototypical late winter Nina +NAM/-PNA state returns by the end of Jan-early Feb Quote Tweet Dr Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx · 5h With the N Pacific ridge migrating poleward, GEFS spies the onset of the Alaskan Ridge regime for early-mid January -- bringing colder weather more widely to the US & ending a potentially record-setting Arctic Low regime. However: the Arctic Low regime then comes straight back... twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/sta… Show this thread

Oh would of loved to see the height map.

Where's the cold arctic air on that map though the whole continent is flooded with warm Pacific air. If it was a good Pacific pattern you wouldn't have low heights over AK. That looks like a positive EPO, positive PNA pattern. PNA good but EPO not good.

Typical EPS Bias with the lower heights in AK. As far as the GEFS goes I really hope it's right. Yes, many references going around this winter will be like 2014-2015.

Ok you know how unreliable those are right?. I really really hope your right though.

Really what shows that?. Just wondering.

I think after P8 it will most likely go to 1 then 2. Could be wrong but the stall in MJO phase 7 argues that it either goes to P8 which it is now then 1-2 or 1-2-3. It could also go to the COD. But most likely P8.

Absolutely epic Winter year here.

Well the GEFS ensembles were showing the cold coming in around the 8th of January now its moving it until at least the 12th of January. THE GEPS has slowed down the advancing of Arctic air as well on it's ensembles. I smell a big ratter. Matt Hugo @MattHugo81 · 9h (2/2) While the opportunity for cold weather remains during the first half of Jan in particular we are closing in on the key period for winter & it doesn't look good - mentioned this the other wk but a falling AAM profile coupled with a strong vortex = +NAO outlook for mid-winter

Yeah the ground didn't even really freeze here yet. The temperatures have been up and down way too much. I think I might just to put a fork in this winter. Things were finally looking so much better yesterday with signs of a positive PNA. Now everything seems to be pushing back a lot.

Take a look at the end of the 12Z EPS. What is that to my eye?. A +PNA.

Any breakdown of the -PNA?. .

Yeah super duper El Nino means very very warm winter.

That was a very snowy GFS 18z Op run there. Not just that but a hint of a positive PNA as well.