leo2000

Air model of the Euro is showing cold dominating through the second half of December as well as there has been hints of it on some of the GFS op models and Euro ensembles. Especially the perioa bid of 20-23 december at least. With that type of pattern setting up I can see it establishing itself as a long stable pattern persisting into a good part of January. Then I think we will get a break, the polar vortex will have taken a significant blow to itself allowing a big displacement of the vortex in early February.

In earlier runs the trough was retrogressing towards the Aleutians a few days before Christmas. not saying that will happen but I am not writing it off yet. Coastalwx, of course they do but its interesting its still showing colder outcomes before Christmas and continuing into Boxing day.

Never seen so much flip flopping before. I think the models are having a hard time capturing the pacific pattern which I think should based on the Wpac temporarily cooling off should allow for more -EPO, -WPO and more +PNA.

I don't know about that a lot of model flip flopping going on from ugly to good then back to ugly. The days before Christmas are up in the air on what is really going to happen.

Just might get a white Christmas after all MJO speeding through phase 6 to 7?.

That is that positive EPO Vortex going to be hard to get rid of that. Let's hope that doesn't happen Christmas is cooked then. I am trying to hold out hope.

Not to sound the alarms just yet but their are strong signals for a big storm around the 22nd of December as a trough tries to establish itself with cold air around too. You can see it on the GEFS and the EPS. That pops a nice positive PNA as well. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024120706&fh=360 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024120700&fh=360

It has been showing this for days now!

No pacific ridge -EPO in that graph though. I see blue low heights near Alaska.

Not as cold as weatherbell but the lastest run had just gotten colder for the east. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2024120506&fh=1002

This is interesting more red showing up in Alaska pretty close to the end of 18Z GEFS. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024120418&fh=372

Could be anytime as 1972, 1982 was only 10 years apart. Wasn't 2013-2014 winter a good positive PDO too?.

Let's hope the GFS op models are incorrect as they are showing the ridge above AK gone in the long range. Hopefully the GEFS ensembles don't follow suite.

Source from Bamwx Big colder trends on the mid-day GEFS - a step towards our forecast of staying COLDER through Mid-December vs. warmer weekly data.

According to Bluewave the +AAM is waning so allowing Mjo to influence the pattern as it enters into Maritime continent. It shows a temporary transient mild up on the 12th of december but gets cold again afterwards on the GEFS.

Too bad it can't come sooner I really really want a white Christmas for a change.

Pictures of the historic snowstorm in my area of New Glasgow Nova Scotia. Snowfall was 60 inches with snowdrifts making it even higher.

Yes indeed its absolutely insane with the amounts of snow.

This winter

Interesting that the NavGem still shows a snowstorm coming up the east coast on the 19th-20th period.

Unfortunately not happening with that MJO phase 4 wave. The pacific ocean has been really cutting our winters short the last 4 years with a pacific firehouse, -PNA and the MJ0 lag in the MC.

Not just him but bluewave on the New York forum too. MJO strong wave in Maritime Continent is not where we want it.

Looks like very interesting times ahead. Some of these systems look like cutters but morph into snowstorms.

But November is now a winter month and doing better than December is.

Who's saying that the pv is not splitting?. Bamwx still going with a split.