sbnwx85

38 and rainy again. I don't think it'll snow today... or ever again. I'm hibernating until Spring.

It’s windy out there too. Raw winter day.

For anyone still following the now-Monday storm, the 00z GFS says congrats Kentucky.

Won't be me... I started the December obs thread and look how that month turned out.

Sounds like my honeymoon! Goodnight, folks!

GFS showing a high-end advisory, low-end warning event for many.

GFS is a great hit for IA, WI, MI, N IL, N IN. South of there it’s nasty sleet/ice storm. Canadian moves a low along the Gulf Coast… so take that for what it’s worth.

I’m starting to go back and look through that thread. It’s funny how the models haven’t improved much in ten years… and in some cases gotten a little worse. GHDII hit on a Sunday, as well. Models struggled 6-8 days out with most going south. The Tuesday before the storm, the GFS really honed in on the potential beast and track of the blizzard. It’s fun to go back and read everyone’s posts. IIRC, last January Euro and GFS showed a major snowstorm/blizzard for much of the subforum five days before 1/13… and backed off to a “run-of-the-mill” snowstorm. Just a reminder not to get too high or too low run-to-run until about Friday

No sarcasm here when I say the models should have a good grasp on this storm by Friday.

Picked up a couple inches of rain today. Oh what could’ve been.

**HEAVY SIGH** yeahhhhhh

50 degrees at 2 am in December feels nice.

CAD Watch in effect.

Some of Indiana’s biggest LES events have come in January. See South Bend in 2011 and Michigan City last year.

Ended with 3.1”. A bit of an over performance. At least on the high end of what I was expecting.

Couple inches of heavy, wet, stick-to-everything snow. It’s going to be absolute winter wonderland scenes this morning.

It's been a rough stretch for most of us. I moved back to South Bend in Spring of 2018 after the city got 93.1" the previous winter. Needless to say I was pumped to get back to frequent cold and snow. It's now been six winters in a row of below normal snowfall. The worst was last season with just 30.3". It was the least snow in a winter since 1948-1949 with 24.2". This is also the longest stretch of below normal snow in a row since the late 1940's in South Bend.

Safe to say it’s going to be boring through the week of Christmas for the subforum including the lake belts. These up and down temps should hopefully lead to something active in January. From what I’m reading from multiple sources, mid-January into mid-February should be rocking and cold for us.

Might have spoken too soon…

Goofus, Your-uh-peein, and the Canucks all showing a strong lake-effect snow signal just in time for the Notre Dame playoff game on Friday. There's still a long way to go but wind direction seems to be the biggest issue at this point. It'll be hard NOT to get a good lake-effect band with that kind of arctic air moving down the lake. Here's hoping it settles over the stadium and makes for one helluva snow bowl!

GFS has had a lake-effect signal for the Notre Dame game on the 20th the last several runs. That would be pretty neat.

Congrats! And thank you for adding inches into your measurements. This lazy American appreciates it

Seeing some snow showers popping up on radar. I think the cell near South Bend has a hook

Tracking tomorrow's snow squall will kind of be like tracking a line of severe storms. The high temperature on Wednesday could actually end up occurring late morning immediately ahead of the much anticipated strong arctic cold front expected to reach northwest Illinois/Rockford area toward midday and quickly push across the rest of Chicagoland into northwest Indiana through the afternoon. This front will likely be accompanied by a period of gusty snow showers and potentially a dangerous snow squall. Hi- res guidance continues to suggest conditions will be conducive for snow squalls. The RAP highlights well the potential for a narrow axis of low-level frontogenesis to develop with the front coinciding with steep low-level lapse rates along with a modest 3-hr surface pressure rise/fall couplet on either side of the front. This could aid in enhancing wind gusts within this fgen band locally up to 40-45 mph. A lingering question remains when these "ingredients" all come together, with the snow squall parameter increasing as the front approaches the I-55/57 corridors into northwest Indiana. While the Rockford area is not fully out of the woods, it is possible coverage is lower west of the Chicago metro. If this scenario plays out, the snow showers/squall may be developing as the front moves into the Chicago metro. Regardless, all areas of northern Illinois and northwest Indiana will want to be prepared for a brief period of sharply reduced visibility in snow/blowing snow and a quick coating on roadways resulting in slick travel during the afternoon/evening commute. To put this round of possible snow showers/squalls into perspective compared to last week`s, surface temperatures will already be below freezing (which were too warm last week for a more robust initial snow squall with the front) and would support snow readily accumulating on roadways. However, the pressure gradient is not as strong, with peak wind gusts currently expected to remain in the 40- 45 mph range versus the 55-60mph wind gusts observed last week. Nevertheless, multiple hi-res models depict localized visibility reductions as low as 1/4 mile within these snow showers/squalls.