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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. ADT estimates aren't the greatest near land. Give it a few hours for the center to get back over water and the ADT will probably match the dropsondes better.
  2. Hurricane Watches are being extended. Should see them populate on www.weather.gov shortly.
  3. NHC issues Vortex Data Message: 83 URNT12 KNHC 271507 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092022 A. 27/14:27:20Z B. 22.93 DEG N 083.50 DEG W C. 700 MB 2775 M D. 963 MB E. 150 DEG 5 KT F. NA G. C18 H. 75 KT I. 050 DEG 9 NM 14:24:30Z J. 135 DEG 89 KT K. 047 DEG 14 NM 14:23:00Z L. 78 KT M. 349 DEG 8 NM 14:34:00Z N. 093 DEG 87 KT O. 352 DEG 12 NM 14:35:00Z P. 8 C / 3061 M Q. 14 C / 3055 M R. 14 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 1.75 NM U. AF302 2109A IAN OB 09 MAX FL WIND 94 KT 057 / 7 NM 13:03:30Z
  4. Ian look impressive on visible and IR satellite. Gulf storm's gonna gulf storm.
  5. Wonder how long after Ian clears Cuba that we see an eye on visible satellite.
  6. Was wondering the same thing. If it pulls back over water, even briefly, would argue the freshwater inland flooding threat for the Carolinas increases.
  7. 12z hurricane models. Looks like a decent interior rainfall setup for the SE.
  8. Yea that's my concern too, especially further inland.
  9. Recon can do a brief fix or data point if it's near the coast and there is a need (IE: rapid strengthening, expected turn, unusual feature) but it is not a common practice. Got to talk with the hurricane hunters when they were in DC the other year about it. There are 2 reasons for this: 1.) There is more turbulence flying over land than water. 2.) No terrain issues over water.
  10. Just need the remnant into Quantico, then a right hook east. Pivot, baby.
  11. NHC has been money on this system.
  12. ^could you imagine that in this neck of the woods? Insane.
  13. 18z hurricane models are more favorable for us, but I agree this is a painful setup to watch.
  14. Philippe works for NHC. He's a big brain tropical wx person and a must follow if your have Twitter.
  15. Ian Cat 2 based off the 5pm advisory from NHC.
  16. Ian's satellite presentation is looking better over the past couple of hours.
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