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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Waldorf mesonet site almost an inch of rain in under an hour. The 2-inch and 4-inch soil moisture values aren't climbing, therefore it's likely all running off.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Right now I would favor the "classic" microbursty line of storms. This is not a knock at SPC by any means, but I do not trust any severe weather forecast beyond D3 in the Mid Atlantic or Northeast. We simply have too many mesoscale features that can muck up a forecast. My favorite research papers for this part of the country are below, and all reference the issues that numerical weather prediction has in this part of the world. Highly worth the read: Guastini, Corey T. and Bosart, Lance F., 2016, "Analysis of a Progressive Derecho Climatology and Associated Formation Environments" Monthly Weather Review Vol. 144, No. 4, pp 1363, 1520-0493, https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/144/4/mwr-d-15-0256.1.xml Vaughan, Matthew T., Tang, Brian H., and Bosart, Lance F., 2017, "Climatology and Analysis of High-Impact, Low Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events in the Northeast United States" Weather and Forecasting Vol. 32, No. 5, pp 1903, 1520-0434, doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-17-0044.1 Banacos, P. C., and M. L. Ekster, 2010: The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 1082–1102, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1. Lombardo, K. A., and B. A. Colle, 2011: Convective Storm Structures and Ambient Conditions Associated with Severe Weather over the Northeast United States. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 940–956, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00002.1.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Our best derechos come with a stout EML, high pressure centered from Kentucky SE to Bermuda, and antecedent surface temps at or above 95°. We appear to have none of those in place.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Only thing worse than a Day 2 Moderate is a D5 15%
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Nice
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the storms are a bust today. Easterly flow drifting in appears to have crossed the I-270 corridor. Should effectively shut down any flood risk in Maryland.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the heat builds in at the end of the week.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like today may be another NOVA special.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR is essentially a whiff north of DC. NOVA and southern MD get all the action.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Jersey wildfires and northeast flow will get you every time.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Flood Watch extended to PA border.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Not a drop overnight in Reisterstown.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    What info do you need?
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Backdoor cold front appears to have settled over the MD 97 corridor west of the bay, then extends along the US 50 corridor on Delmarva. Pretty evident on mesonet data. Looks like a wind shift and spike just before the front crosses. Someone is going to get dumped on.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    We also need a respectable 500 mb pattern. Looks like the "best" climo is one that features a ridge flexing NW -> SE from Kentucky to Bermuda. Kinda of laying the train tracks for us.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Too many people in my neighborhood have poured chemicals in their lawn. We're the only property that has them anymore in our street.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Even Berlin hit 90° today.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    We do best with derecho climatology when we have BIG heat and a stout EML.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Sun looks like it's trying to poke out.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Which models are better at this?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    You're missing the point. 9/10 times the front never makes it that far northeast. Then the 1/10 time happens and there's like 20 EF0 / EF-1 tornadoes across the DC / Baltimore area. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. Warm fronts are devious.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Cool mesonet stuff happening near there soon
  24. Eskimo Joe
    There's a solid easterly flow advocating a decent marine layer across the lowlands.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    If you read the SPC convective outlooks leading up to that event, you will notice several interesting things: 1.) SPC went 30% probabilistic on D3. That's anomalous. 2.) The Day 3 and Day 2 mentioned negative tilted upper low. . .in June. Red flag that we're dealing with a potent event. 3.) We closed well on this event: dynamics and instability. Had we had even an hour or two of legitimate, full sun then it would've been a top 10 tornado day in this region. To me, that event is the benchmark for non-tropical tornado days in these parts.
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