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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    I'm up in Emmittsburg for class all week. I'll be watching storms through the window like I did as a kid.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    00z NAM has a bowing segment similar to the 01z HRRR, but it's further north along the Mason-Dixon counties.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    00z NAMNEST is a legit bow right through the entire DC Metro. It also has a UHI track right through Frederick and Carroll counties similar to the 01z HRRR.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    The 01z HRRR puts a lead cluster through Frederick and Carroll counties around 19z Monday, with a solid UHI track just north of Frederick City. Main line well to the west with several bowing segments across WV. EDIT: After AM clouds, we break out into the warm sector with near full sun shine.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Surprised there was s flood watch to be honest. It's been dry and this front end stuff looks kind of benign.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=92
  7. Eskimo Joe
    18z HRRR does a DC split. Solid supercell driving right along I-70, another decent batch south of I-66. In between is pretty run-of-the-mill.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    FWIW, the experimental HREF from SPC has us socked in with low level clouds tomorrow morning, but they seem to burn off by 11am. The guidance that is most aggressive with convection tomorrow seems to have two things in common: 1.) Clouds burn off by 10am - 12pm. 2.) Minimal mid and high level debris clouds from tonight's convection. If we wake up to a favorable visible satellite tomorrow, I do believe that we will realize a solid ENH to maybe low level MOD risk day. My thinking is entirely hinged on the ability of strong sunshine sustaining itself so storms can root to the surface and realize the low level instability. That would help us maximize the best helicity and shear. It would not surprise me to see a few tornadoes tomorrow, especially east of I-95 where storms can take advantage of the typical mesoscale boundaries near Chesapeake Bay. Flooding is not something I am terribly worried about. Storm motion seems rather progressive and it's been dry the past two weeks.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    According to the IEMbot archives, only 6/13/2013 was the other time that a portion of Maryland was under a 45% Day 2 wind contour.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    What are your thoughts on tomorrow's potential?
  11. Eskimo Joe
    If these storm could hold off until 6/7pm that'd be great.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Got a screenshot for those of us who are mobile?
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Even 30 inch snow storms have dry slots and mix lines.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    I'll put all my chips in on Sunday.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Their latest AFD does not inspire much confidence for Monday east of I-81:
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Come November, it will flip and show a raging +NAO and SE ridge.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like no more heat this summer. Probably saving everything for mid winter.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Coward!
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Yea, but a blue check on Twitter said that isn't true so maybe both sides are the blame?
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Oh brother
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like were going to have another swing and a miss this year. Basin looks dead.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Similar to what happened at my house on Saturday. Went from nothing to "uh oh" quick.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Working outside today. It feels worse than yesterday.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Big heat doesn't go quietly into the night. We've cleared out nicely. Someone is going to get a solid storm today.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Over 150 storm related 911 calls in Montgomery County. We still have close to 50 calls pending dispatch.
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