raindancewx

Here is the JISAO/Nate Mantua PDO update for January 2020 - negative. 2019-10-01T00:00:00Z -0.45 2019-11-01T00:00:00Z 0.15 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.97 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.23 https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO My PDO indicator said ~ +0.5 for Nov-Apr. That looks fine.

Here is the European update for ENSO - looks to me like no real change in Nino 3.4. The predicted decline in Nino 4 has been shown for several months now and is much more interesting. The Jamstec site is changing looks like, so might be a little late to update this month. Long term, the pattern still appears to be cycling through at about a 104 day lag. I had a storm exactly 104 days ago yesterday in October.

I've been fairly impressed with 1953-54, 1992-93, 2004-05, 2018-19 for recent ocean/solar/weather conditions in the US. Had used three of those years in my winter forecast - it's the other three that screwed me up. With some adjustments for the record +AO, warmer oceans, and warming subsurface, I used that blend for my Spring forecast: https://www.scribd.com/document/446483878/Spring-2020-Outlook

It's updated at a different link. Nate Mantua sent me this a while ago and it's the same data as before through December 2019. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Big drop on the weekly data. But the subsurface 100-180W is still warm and warming. Nino 3 as the coldest anomaly is unusual. We're in like an El Nino sandwich, warm edges, cold middle. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2

The local NWS has Albuquerque in a Winter Storm Watch, along with much of New Mexico, for 3-8 inches of snow on Monday Night - Tuesday Night. The wind forecast has been trending weaker, but that still seems high for Albuquerque. I use Weather.US for the European wind forecasts by hour but it isn't loading the new Euro. Dew point is currently 16F. So even tomorrow morning may see some wet bulb snow. I think we could fall to 36-40 before any precipitation moves in early Monday. By that point, I think the dew point is still around 22. If were 36/37 with a dew point in the low 20s, we'll find a way to snow. Then it will go to rain after. In any case, should be some good precipitation at least.

The Nate Mantua/JISAO PDO isn't in yet, but the NOAA version of it is, and shows a big crash for January. The JISAO PDO usually moves in a similar way to the NOAA PDO, but with higher values. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 201910 -0.96 201911 -0.28 201912 0.01 202001 -1.17

If an El Nino is to develop again for winter 2020-21, that's pretty rare historically. Only cases I know of for a 27C or warmer Nino 3.4, three times in a row, in the past 100 years: 1939-40, 1940-41, 1941-42 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05 (and here you have to fudge 2003-04 - it's right at like 26.96C or so). The early 1990s are kind of an interesting case, since 1992-93 was not 27.0C, but came after a volcanic eruption that cooled the Earth, and so you had essentially an El Nino without Nino 3.4 warm in 1992-93.

On the final update, only 0.8" snow yesterday in Albuquerque. Today's high of 32F with a low of 12F in Albuquerque is the 39th coldest day in February in the last 100 years. Close to the 99th Percentile for cold in that period. I think we may make a run for 5-10F in the morning, which is pretty impressive here for February. I think the all time record low is about -7 for February, matched in 2011. Dew point is "only" -5, so we won't break the record.

CPC just had a baby everybody. Guess what gender? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2019 10 27.20 26.75 0.45 2019 11 27.23 26.75 0.48 2019 12 27.12 26.65 0.47 2020 1 27.18 26.45 0.73 (near identical to last year) 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.20 26.45 0.75 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6

Three in a row?

Albuquerque finally had a "high ratio" snow event today - airport reported 0.05" liquid equivalent as 1.3 inches of snow. So 6.6 inches for Oct 1-Feb 4 at the official site. At my place, only 0.7 inches today, but up to 10.3 inches for the season. Roughly 40% of precipitation to fall in Dec-Feb so far has been snow for Albuquerque, and then another ~22% of the precipitation in November, the wettest November in 100+ years was also snow.

Some new data this week. The QBO has gone negative. 2004 -4.84 2.61 5.45 10.46 12.97 11.75 9.96 8.74 7.29 8.00 4.35 2.45 2005 -0.69 -0.96 -0.33 -6.64 -15.09 -20.59 -24.20 -25.87 -27.80 -28.76 -29.55 -25.04 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 5.07 1.66 2020 -2.51 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 No new ONI value yet from CPC - likely tomorrow or later in the week. Solar activity may be coming up now - January had more than six sunspots, down from last January but up from recent months. The El Nino is having a secondary peak, like last year. Warming of >0.3C from Jan-Feb in Nino 3.4 is more like a La Nina that is weakening than an El Nino, which is why February is expected to be similar to last year (warm East, cold West). Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 The new Canadian run still shows a La Nina developing in Summer but it is much slower to form that on the last run. The subsurface implies to me a final peak Feb or Mar or both, then rapid cooling at the subsurface. The record setting (?) +AO for February forecast is a pretty strong warm signal for Feb-Mar...and then not at all in April.

CFS matches the spatial look you get matching the 100-180W zone's heat content in the Tropical Pacific. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Heat content is now almost identical to last year in January. Was +0.59 in January 2019. The CFS 6-10, 8-14, and week 3-4 all show a warm February in the East. No update from the Canadian seasonal model yet on Tropical Tidbits. 100-180W Nov Dec Jan 2019 0.26 0.34 0.51 1980 0.35 0.61 0.36 1980 0.35 0.61 0.36 1992 -0.27 0.19 0.27 2001 0.22 0.17 0.95 2001 0.22 0.17 0.95 2003 0.54 0.17 0.05 Blend 0.24 0.32 0.49

Elephant Butte Lake is already the fullest it has been since 2010. Currently 585,967 acre feet of water in the lake. Last day with more than that? June 18, 2010 (586,945 acre feet). The highest value for 2010 was 604,248 acre feet, with 2009 peaking at 705,284 acre feet. I don't think we'll beat 2002 - which peaked at 905,744 acre feet. I'm expecting the lake to get into the 640,000-740,000 acre feet range sometime by the end of July.

Subsurface is still warm, but looks like it will rapidly cool from mid-February or March on. Similar thing happened in Nov-Dec, coinciding well with the big Eastern US warm up. I'd expect a pretty warm April nationally if I have the timing right on the warm up to cool down. Long-term, a warm Spring in Nino 3.4 is a warm signal for the US in July-Sept. Last March-May was 7th warmest since 1950 in Nino 3.4. So a cooler Nino 3.4 favors somewhat less heat in that period. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9

My January outlook from October is actually starting to look pretty good nationally. East probably won't finish +6 to +12 by the end of the month, and the Northern Plains will warm up some, it looks pretty warm from Montana to Michigan over the rest of the month. General idea from me was weak cold Plains and West in January, warm elsewhere. If you add 2F to my blend, it should end up pretty close to the final January look. My NAO indicator, and the growing model consensus of the MJO starting February in phase 5/6, not to mention the super +AO in January, all point to another warm month for the East. I don't expect the Montana anomalies to finish 10-25 below normal for the month though, if the cold goes into the West again. With Nino 3.4 not really warming up at the surface in January, but lots of warmth below the surface, I'd expect Nino 3.4 to be much warmer in February than in January, which is atypical in an El Nino. So some kind of western / central cold dump is likely if Nino 3.4 sees a big jump, like last year. The 3.5 month lag that had mid-Aug to mid-Sept fairly similar to December still seems to be working, which implies a pretty cold February for the Plains, or an area near the Plains. Here is Sept 16-Oct 5 v. Jan 1-20. There's essentially been a clockwise rotation centered on the Canadian Plains of some of the East Canada Fall warmth into New England, while the cold centered on Reno, NV shifted up to Western Canada. Very curious to see if there is any resemblance in February to this. My hunch is there will be, but it will be shifted to the northwest from the Fall.

By the end of the month, my outlook for January, warmed up 2F may end up being fairly close to what actually happens. This was my blend from October, but with +2 added on.

Not structured the same as last year, but looks like an El Nino to me. It's kind of amazing the SOI has been better connected to the El Nino this year given how warm the waters by Australia have been compared to last year.

I actually got that wrong - we topped 29.2% briefly in 2010. Anyway, it looks like it might snow a bit tomorrow, although I think with the much higher dew points it is unlikely to be as cold or as much snow as in the last system. Expecting 0.25" precipitation for Albuquerque, and maybe 0.5" or less as snow. Dew point is 22 though, at this time before the last system it was more like 5. With the higher dew point, I'd like to see the air temperature / dew point blend below 38/22 by Midnight for snow on Tuesday. The last system was 44/10 at Midnight I think, and eventually got down to 30F.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 Given how warm the subsurface is below Nino 3.4, you have to expect a warmer Nino 3.4 in February, above the average +0.2C warming that takes place from Jan to Feb. The western subsurface does look pretty cold, so the models showing +0.5C to +0.8C in Nino 3.4 through Feb/Mar and then a La Nina next winter are probably right. I'm fairly confident that the periods of extreme Eastern warmth in the Fall/Winter are going to show up again in the Spring. Will be interesting to see how that evolves. I'll link my Spring Forecast here around February 10th if anyone is curious. Winter to date has looked a lot like 1953-54, 2003-04, 2004-05 as a blend warmed up a degree, with the heat core somewhat SE, and it's not a bad SST match either in the Nino zones.

The SOI for January is back down to -0.6. Right now, the top blend for February is 1937, 1993, 2005. Will change by the end of the month...but it's not likely to be super positive or negative this month. SOI Nov Dec Jan 1936 -13.8 -0.7 8.8 2004 -7.7 -10.1 1.2 1992 -6.9 -6.6 -9.2 Blend -9.5 -5.8 0.3 2019 -9.5 -6.7 -0.6 Cold West / average East pattern if the SOI finishes around 0 in January. The top six objective matches are 2004-05, 1939-40, 1967-68, 1979-80, 1987-88, 1963-64.

My formula attempts to account for the ratio using the (40-Temp) portion. The colder it is, if you look historically, the less impact the East wind thing has. I've done a lot of testing on that formula - it tends to be within an inch of what it reported at the airport. This is one the better write ups about it. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/011/index.html For the November storm, the numbers were like this - should say the 'precip' value is a double weighted 3-km NAM, double weighted Euro, and single weighted GFS value for snow divided by five, i.e. 'modeled precip'. I know you have to look at soundings to make sure there is nothing weird going on, but assuming there isn't, you can use it pretty cleanly. Snow = (40-Temp)x(Precip as Snow*(1-EW/50) Snow = (40-30)x(0.6*(1-((1020+1024)-(1017x2))/((50) Snow = (10 x 0.6) x (1-(44-34)/(50) Snow = (10 x 0.6) x (1-(10/50) Snow = (10 x 0.6) x (1-0.2) Snow = (0.6) x (0.8) Snow = 4.8". The airport got 4 inches.

The official site had 0.15" as snow, all freezing or below, and reported 0.7". I had 1.5", and my co-workers on the west-side of town had around 3 inches. The airport has had 5.3" to date, which is above the average through 1/16. I've had 7.5" in November, 0.3" in December, and 2.0" total in January, about 10 inches total - same elevation as the airport, due north, with some snow shadowing here too. We do get more snow up here, but I still find their totals to be kind of funky most of the time. For the airport totals I try to use this formula: Snow = (40-Temp)x(Precip as Snow*(1-EW/50), where East Wind is air pressure in MB in Amarillo + air pressure in Colorado Springs - ABQ air pressure x2 In this case... Snow = (40 - 31) x (0.15)*(1-(9/50) = Snow = (9) x (0.15)*(0.82) Snow = 1.1 inches The East wind score went from roughly 14 to 5 over the duration of the event where at least parts of the city were getting snow. My assumptions had been more like this for the airport going in - Snow = (40 - 34) x (0.25) x (1-(5/50) = 6 x 0.25 x 0.9 = 1.4 I don't doubt they got around an inch, just seems a touch low for 0.15" liquid equivalent, with temperatures below freezing when all of it accumulated.

I think this El Nino may last deep into 2020, and then turn into a La Nina that peaks late in winter 2020-21 or early in Spring 2021. I'm expecting the cold water below the surface to end the El Nino from West to East, meaning we'll have Modoki La Nina / East-based El Nino forcing for a time later in 2020 (colder Nino 4, warmer Nino 3.4/1.2)