raindancewx

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 26MAY2021 23.4-0.5 26.7-0.3 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 02JUN2021 23.2-0.4 26.6-0.2 27.6-0.2 28.8-0.2 09JUN2021 23.2-0.0 26.7-0.0 27.8-0.0 28.9-0.1 16JUN2021 23.3 0.4 26.0-0.5 27.2-0.5 28.8-0.2 Subsurface has warmed up a bit this week. I've liked 2012-13 as a good precipitation analog for a while. It's pretty close on Levi's site too. The heat wave timing out here is fairly similar to June 2013, prior to a very wet July. GFS and to some extent Euro have been showing a pretty good wet period coming up soon here. CPC has it too now in the 6-10.

The science for greenhouse gasses impacting the climate has been around for over 100 years in a mathematical sense. It's not terribly complicated. How long do scientists need to convince the public that it will have effects on their lives? Another 100 years? 1,000? The position that one day people will wake up, take the streets, demand action and all will be well is beyond idiotic to me, it's naive. One way to evaluate science for usefulness is to look at what problem facing humanity has been solved by the scientific research. So...what problem has been solved with climate science? We have nuclear scientists here, it's a bit ironic, but their work has contributed to a peaceful world and because countries with a-bombs don't attack either other. No war between powerful countries is a pretty big get. Meteorologists have mostly solved forecasting in short term time-frames I would say. You'll never die from a tornado or a flash flood if you have a weather radio. Engineers and scientists have solved countless communication problems with radio, tv, internet, cell phones, cars, and so on. A lot of climate science looks like curve fitting to me, or to put it another way, fudging some of the more basic physics math with assumptions about how human behavior will change. Say you'd like to think the Earth's albedo would change in predictable ways in 100 years based on the sea ice changes in the past 100 years and you used a simple static or linear model....but what if it doesn't, you know if you were just to pick on this equation as the basis for a really over simplified climate model? I can't think of a way my life is meaningfully worse from the climate being warmer than 100 years ago because the rate of human adaption is much faster than the rate of climate change, and since I never lived through that climate I never had to adapt fully anyway. I like the heat. When I don't, I have air conditioning. If we keep seeing brief severe cold like we've had in recent Februaries in Western economies when people expect warmth all the time you're going to continue to see massive destruction to poorly planned infrastructure. Most of what you focus on is places like Phoenix that are at the edge of climate zones in Koppen classification sense, and so the results in those places are going to be far more dire than in most places that are not moving to a new climate zone, like Boston or New York. The climate of 50 years from now will be normal to young people growing up in that era. They won't have to adapt, it will be their normal, and I'll be dead. I saw someone said that you have water crisis for farmers and ranchers in the West. That's certainly true to some extent, but it's not new. There are ancient irrigation systems all over the state to attempt to draw water from different sources that were designed hundreds of years ago by the tribes here. Mark Twain is famous for saying that "Until I came to New Mexico, I never realized how much beauty water adds to a river". New Mexico if you study hydrology has a "great lake" sized body of water that has been drained by stupid farming practices and other poor planning underneath. That has as much to do with the issues in the West as anything. You guys in the East always act like if we go through three to 18 month dry periods, it's the end of the world. We have cool places for water storage, on the mountain tops, and then underground thanks to all the prominent mountain ranges above the valley floor. The other issue locally is that the Rio Grande Compact was largely based on precipitation patterns during some extremely wet El Ninos, including 1940-41, which shows up on every hike I've ever taken with huge tree rings on the tree trunks and has something like top-annual rain in the last 300 years locally. The general view in the small towns in the West is that whenever a drought comes, the liberals will divert water to the cities if they are in charge, because that's their power base and the small towns and farmers will run out. There are certainly stories locally about small towns out of water already this Summer, while Albuquerque doesn't even have water restrictions. These are not climate problems, just poor planning problems. The old research I've seen implies something like 20 billion acre feet of water in New Mexico alone underground, it just can't be extracted mostly. Presumably, someone will come up with an innovation to grab it because necessity is the mother of invention. https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1987/0741/report.pdf https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2019/08/07/groundwater-levels-are-on-the-rebound-in-albuquerque/

Mann is primarily a statistician by background, I think it matters a lot that a proposed statistical explanation is not correct, especially since he went out of his way to insist on it from the prior "consensus" about volcanoes. None of these proposed 30-year oscillations like the AMO or PDO really behave in that manner if you look at the data or the maps with any level of detail, it shouldn't have escaped the eyes of a smart person. The AMO is a major indicator of snow patterns, drought, and heat waves, among others. So knowing it isn't really a 30-year cycle is not a big deal to me, as a guy with no power. But it makes the entire concept broadly useless to someone like Mann trying to advocate social policy change to help with climate change. What are you supposed to do if you are Biden, and Mann tells you all these indexes exist and can predict outcomes well, but the indexes themselves are slow and irregularly changing, and subject to constant revision by their inventors? I don't have a problem with the Earth warming as an idea or the evidence for it. I had atmospheric physics, thermodynamics, hydrology and other pretty intensive math in college and high school. I just think as a field it is kind of useless. I can't imagine many scientists are attracted to something that is "settled", i.e. that the outcome will be changed weather and warmer temperatures, for decades. The settled science thing to me is classic double speak though. Things that are actually settled are not controversial or subject to hundreds of billions of dollars of research. The research and controversy exists because it is less clear what happens to the trends at a regional and seasonal level, which means it isn't settled, not really. People know the Earth is round. People know where babies come from. Surely these were state of the art scientific findings at some point. But they aren't now, so we don't argue about them or research them in meaningful ways. To me science is about discovery. The truth is, the climate can only change in a hand full of ways. It can move toward more/less for moisture/heat in a given spot or overall, or more/less for entropy if the way heat is input into the system gets screwed up. So it's not actually that interesting. You'll never see rain fall up or snow turn blue. It's not like quantum mechanics or something where you're looking for a grand unified theory of everything, which is actually interesting. Climate science is mostly about social policy. But the public has literally no use for knowing that the oceans are forecast to rise, given record populations in coastal areas. The public doesn't care about slow changes in hurricane activity or tracks, or about tornado activity or tracks since we just build better homes and issue better forecasts. I live in the West. It's undoubtedly somewhat warmer than even recent prior hot/dry periods like the 1950s, and water is scarce. But each time we need more water, another water source is found, whether it is a river or a lake that gets diverted. The same thing will inevitably happen in the future, even if it has to be through more extreme measures like cloud seeding, desalinization, or whatever the new method is.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 26MAY2021 23.4-0.5 26.7-0.3 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 02JUN2021 23.2-0.4 26.6-0.2 27.6-0.2 28.8-0.2 09JUN2021 23.2-0.0 26.7-0.0 27.8-0.0 28.9-0.1 Subsurface has cooled recently. But still neutral overall. I've always been high on the idea of a Neutral or an El Nino. At this point, Neutral seems possible. Certain things in the northern oceans have looked like 2013 at times since last Fall. The blazing mid-June heat here is certainly reminiscent and ties in well to near identical precipitation patterns in the SW to the 2012-13 cold season. Year over year, the subsurface is still much warmer than last year, and the surface will be too if it isn't currently. Should be a much different Summer than last year.

A lot of the climate stuff is treated as factual, in the way that a sperm and egg make a baby is factual, when it is in large part as good as the assumptions built into the models. It's much more akin to economics and social sciences that use math to help arrive at the truth, with the caveat that you can never really get replication or clean control groups to test the ideas because we can't ever have the same Earth with less greenhouse gasses, to compare to the current Earth, the way you could have near identical populations of humans split it half to test something like a COVID vaccine. Without those more rigorous methods to test ideas impacting the Earth's climate, you have the potential for massive systemic biases, and much of the research can't be proven/dis-proven or falsified. My point is that 20 years is a pretty short time for Mann to be giving up on one of his major ideas. No one is ever right about everything, but you have to expect he's probably wrong about many other things.

Pretty obvious that the public is never going to buy into the recommended social policy changes for climate change. Knowledge in science has no real relevance for designing or inspiring societal change. Easily possible to be a great thinker for one and a dumb-ass for the other. The scientists leading a lot of the charge don't exactly help themselves. Mann was talking about how he coined the "AMO" recently in the 80s/90s and then spent a lot of this year regretting it since newer research shows the AMO phases are tied to volcanic eruptions (duh, the same major volcanoes erupted in the late 1890s, 1930s, 1960s, 1990s, and have started to recently. I have books from the 1950s on climate that speculated that was the mechanism. Doesn't exactly inspire faith in Mann). I think it's pretty likely a lot of the younger scientists will see many of their ideas dis-proven as well.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 26MAY2021 23.4-0.5 26.7-0.3 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 02JUN2021 23.2-0.4 26.6-0.2 27.6-0.2 28.8-0.2 I am cautiously optimistic that Summer in the US will not be blazing hot everywhere. Think we say a warm start cool finish in the West, with consistent heat waves and cold shots for the East. We'll see soon enough. Some fairly cold Summers shows up as good SST matches locally.

27.45C in Nino 3.4 in May 2021 is -0.5C against 1991-2020 but solidly Neutral long-term. Euro missed the boat on May too.

You can always tell that scientists in meteorology aren't used to dealing with the public. Saying 97% consensus means nothing if the consensus is wrong. You can just look at the number of times the consensus about COVID has changed about death rates, proper testing, forecasting models, evaluating symptoms, public policy response, etc, to see why people don't give a damn about consensus. The case for warming is pretty strong, but if you put 100 scientists in a room I doubt they'd agree on the current temperature of the Earth or the best way to measure it. Presumably if I tracked the room temperature in my living room in six different spots for 100 years you'd have slight variation in the trends even within the same room, so the differences globally are unavoidable. So there is still infinite gradation in what is right or not in terms of the details, just as with anything. Most of the criticism of the science is really about conservatives recognizing (correctly) that even well meaning scientists have self-interested motivation, i.e. they'll look like buffoons if someone does ever disprove the current theories.

+0.69. A weighted blend of 1989, 1991, 2009, 2011 is pretty close to May observations for the US temp profile.

Canadian Model has trended much warmer in the short term in the tropical pacific but still shows a La Nina redeveloping in Fall.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 26MAY2021 23.4-0.5 26.7-0.3 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 Subsurface warmth is there still , but is actually thinning a bit on the ENSO animation and PDF.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 20MAY2020 23.9-0.3 26.4-0.7 27.4-0.5 28.9-0.1 Last year this is when the La Nina began.

The ENSO signal sort of got over-ridden by the AO/NAO going crazy (+) in November and then the WPO also going ~record positive/negative at times in Fall-Spring. The wetness out here recently is arguably more tied to the +WPO/NAO than the ENSO changes. There has been actually been somewhat substantial reduction in drought in both eastern NM and eastern CO in recent weeks. My idea for the cold season had been 2007-08 -ish, given that year had a positive WPO despite a healthy La Nina, which is fairly unusual. The main issue with 2007 was always that the pattern was telegraphing at least some -NAO periods as early as September for the cold season. April and May NAO behavior is useful to look at for the winter when anchored to ENSO transition conditions, so will be interesting to see if the subsurface keeps warming. NAO was negative in 2020/2021 in April after being positive that month for a decade.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 The cold first half of May was something I expected this month. I had May 1979, 2008, and 2019 as three of the five analogs for May back in February. Large areas of the US below 5F in H1 May in a few of those years. May has been pretty wet in parts of New Mexico, that's correlated rather well with +NAO November years (near record + in Nov 2020) and the +WPO years in January (record + in January 2021). Wouldn't be May out here without crazy hail either and high elevation snow.

My guess is no one in this thread has read the book.

I don't get why people are so obsessed either way with the climate stuff. It's a one directional trend being super-imposed on a chaotic, highly variable system. The variable system is the interesting part, not the one-directional trend. Obsessing over whether the change is x, or x+0.5C or x-0.5C over some arbitrary period is pretty ridiculous given that everyone lives on a single point on the Earth and doesn't ever experience the global average temperature. Figuring out the specific regional trends on small time scales is way more interesting than figuring out that Atlanta will overall be 1F warmer in 100 years while the North Pole will be 5F warmer.

Assuming the subsurface is +0.66 or so in May for 100-180W, the closest matches for March-May are 1987, 1989, 1991, 2009, 2011, 2018. 100-180 Mar Apr May 1987 0.60 0.31 0.58 1989 0.42 0.50 0.61 1991 0.18 0.80 0.76 2009 0.08 0.65 0.87 2011 0.50 0.58 0.47 2018 0.51 0.80 0.88 2021 0.27 0.60 0.66 Also looks like our friends in Japan are close to restoring the Jamstec seasonal website after the hacking issue. Also meant to mention the other day, the Nov-Apr PDO value finished around -0.8. That's the most negative PDO for that period in a long time. Last Nov-Apr more negative was 2011-12. For the past 30-years, it's a top five negative PDO value for Nov-Apr.

If the subsurface for 100-180W stays around +0.6 for May, the top matches for Spring start to look like 1989, 1991, 2011, and 2018 among others.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 Subsurface continues to rapidly warm. We're on month two now for a much warmer subsurface y/y.

Euro is pretty neutral, but the verification almost always shows up on the high or low side of the plume.

CPC monthly data for April came in much colder than the weeklies. 2021 2 25.76 26.76 -1.00 2021 3 26.50 27.29 -0.80 2021 4 27.08 27.83 -0.75 Monthly data is -0.75C v. 1991-2020, but only -0.50 or so v. 1951-2010 which I find is a better ENSO indicator. The weekly data implied 27.5C for April. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0

MJO entering phase one about 5/1: 2017, 2016, 2014, 2013, 2010, 2005, 1995, 1990, 1981. Euro shows Nino 3.4 cooling off a lot in April while the weeklies showed slow warming. Such is the fun of using different baselines (1991-2020 for the weeklies, 1981-2010 for the Euro) and different datasets (OISST and ERSST). Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1

Subsurface value for 100-180W came in at +0.56. Up from -0.82 in February. The closest subsurface match transition is 2009 for February-April. 2006, 2011, 2012, 1989, 2001 are kind of close too, and 2018 is the most recent year with any similarity February March April 2006: -0.92 -0.29 +0.42 2009: -0.50 +0.08 +0.65 2011: -0.22 +0.50 +0.58 Blend: -0.55 +0.10 +0.55 2021: -0.82 +0.27 +0.56 Not really any big La Ninas that have behaved similarly. Here is a list of years at or above +0.5 in April for 1979-2020: 1980, 1981, 1982, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1997, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018. Of the 13 years, 7 are El Ninos next winter. Only 2011 is a La Nina. From that list, 2009, 2011, 2018 followed La Nina winters, but 1981, 1982, 1989, 1990, 1997, 2014 also followed cold-ENSO winters.