raindancewx

The record +WPO in March really helped extend winter a bit out here. These correlation maps show r. So the purple spots are up to 0.5 r-squared for the WPO in March. Pretty interesting distribution of total snow compared to average so far. Will run an analysis of my snow forecast from last fall in another week or two after the final major western systems move through.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 CPC reported -0.94C for JFM ONI using 1991-2020 as the baseline. Would be -0.8C against 1951-2010 averages. On the stable 1951-2010 averages I like to use, I get these figures for March: Nino 1.2: 25.66C (-0.49C) Nino 3 : 26.49C (-0.51C) Nino 3.4: 26.47C (-0.66C) Nino 4 : 27.62C (-0.45C) Here are the recent similar transitions in Jan-March in Nino 3.4. The years within 0.2C in all three months are 1996 and 1968. I would blend those two in with 2018, which is remarkably close in January & March. 2021: 25.55 / 25.71 / 26.47 2018: 25.57 / 25.97 / 26.48 2012: 25.67 / 26.08 / 26.67 2009: 25.66 / 25.96 / 26.59 2006: 25.63 / 26.08 / 26.57 1996: 25.69 / 25.89 / 26.67 1985: 25.38 / 26.03 / 26.50 1968: 25.69 / 25.68 / 26.33 1956: 25.34 / 25.76 / 26.46 1955: 25.61 / 25.81 / 26.22

My sense is there is blocking next winter too. But if it is an El Nino, it will probably be focused Feb-Mar, not Dec-Jan focused like this winter. I would like another El Nino. The El Ninos after La Ninas are cool to very cold out here, pretty reliably, and the jump to even a weak El Nino from a ~25.57C La Nina in winter would be one of the larger jumps in the past 70 years, I think top ten for a year to year warm up. Solar activity is still rising, but it's going up fairly fast now. Next winter is probably the last "low solar" winter for a while. The relevant threshold nationally seems to be an average of 55 sunspots/month for a year from July-June. The subsurface in March was +0.28 down to 300m, from -0.82 in February. Huge jump. The trajectory Jan-Mar is still like some La Nina years (2011), but also now like some El Nino years (2006). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

New Canadian has cold-neutral conditions for Apr-Jun, warmer than the prior run.

Time frame to watch now is mid-April for a big system. Not sure if the position was right for the front range or west, but the 3/26 967 mb off Kamchatka should come through somewhere in the US as a major system.

SOI finished March at -0.46. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, since 1990, cold ENSO winters are 4/4 in going to El Ninos the next winter with a -SOI in March. The 1985-86 and 2008-09 cold ENSO winters both saw SOI values of 0 to -1 in March.

These maps are never particularly precise, but it's been interesting month for snow. Remarkably low totals for a lot of the East, and some solid storms in the West.

The rebound at the surface is a bit misleading given the destruction of the La Nina below.

Tropical Tidbits has shown cooling recently - the weeklies show it too now. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6

Edit: Oh wait, it is Sunday. No new update yet.

The SOI is negative for the past 30 days but has come up a lot in recent days after a persistent bout of negative days. It may not finish March negative. The 30 day reading is -2, it had been almost +17 as recently as December. The WPO was record positive in January, so maybe that's just a recurring part of the pattern for a while now. My research in my Spring Outlook implied a series of lows moving across the southern US in March based on the ~record +NAO in November (+2.54). It's been interesting seeing that play out. Southern US is definitely colder than the Northern US by anomalies this month. I had kind of assumed the correlation was due to a lot of +NAO Novembers in El Nino. But it seems to not be only that. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

What do you make of these ongoing super powered lows off Kamchatka? I don't remember seeing them this strong in the WPO region this late in the year. That's big trouble for somebody in the US if it translates to the US 4/12-4/16. I mean 967 mb on the old saffir simpson scale is like a borderline major hurricane.

Still snowing in places down here. Taos Powderhorn snow pack may cross 80 inches for the first time this cold season tomorrow.

Old east wind snow event for Albuquerque.

Winter Weather Advisory up for Albuquerque. I think most of the city is going to get under two inches. Higher amounts to the western areas of the city. Nice little storm for March though. Timing matches the big SOI crash ten days ago. Not bad for Southern Colorado either.

Check out the warm up since mid-February.

Nino 4 convective forcing looks like it is coming back after getting shut down for about 2-3 months. Temps there are about to hit 28.0C again. The anomalies for the past four weeks are just not that impressive even on the warm 1991-2020 baseline: Nino 1.2: +0.13C Nino 3 : -0.35C Nino 3.4: -0.68C Nino 4 : -0.68C Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4

WPC for Monday-Wednesday. The latest GFS is a little bit faster with when precipitation arrives Tues-Weds down here. I think we're going to get a coating to two inches in Albuquerque. That's been hard to come by in March. If the airport gets at least 1.5", this becomes the snowiest Oct-May since 2006-07 for the city.

As much as I'd like to believe we'll have an El Nino next winter, the Feb-Mar pattern isn't that different from a year like 1985 which did not become an El Nino. Will be curious to see if we get the 1-3" snow shown by the Weather.com forecast and some of the raw model runs show on Tuesday-Wednesday in Albuquerque. Been a long time since we've had significant snow in March. I'd also like to see this cold season become the snowiest one locally since 2006-07. Another 1.5" would do that. The SOI also returned positive in recent days and that looks to continue through a lot of the rest of the month. May not be far off from 0 overall in March.

GFS/Euro both pretty similar for the system in the day 2.5-3.5, and 3.5-4.5 range down here. Not a bad setup for Southern Colorado in the initial day either. Looks like 1-4 feet of snow for the highest mountains down here.

Still a lot more snow coming for the West for at least the next couple of weeks. Looks like a good snow and precipitation event in the next four-five days. The snowy West idea I had in my forecast looks pretty strong at this point.

There was a 988 mb low in the same spot over southern Kamchatka as the 970 mb low two days ago. That's probably early April (4/2-4/6?). That might be the final storm in the sequence. There is definitely a break after that. Although longer term, the GFS does have other potent systems up there around day 5 and on, but not sure I buy it. The system the Euro has down here for 3/23-3/24 ties in correctly to the major SOI crash 3/11-3/13. One day 13 point drop, with a two day drop of 18 points.

No Jamstec update yet. Looks like they got hacked? http://www.jamstec.go.jp/j/about/press_release/20210318_2/

The short range models can forecast dust and other fine particulates if I remember correctly. That's one reason they tend to do well and not dramatically overstate totals. The dry air was here for sure, we had a dew point reading of -23 the other day just before that storm came in. I'm sure that got mixed in.

PDO update via Nate Mantua: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2020-11-01T00:00:00Z -1.12 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z -0.9 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.16 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z -0.54 First time the PDO has been negative for winter in a while. Trend is definitely down in recent winters: 2014-15: +2.4 2015-16: +1.4 2016-17: +0.9 2017-18: +0.5 2018-19: +0.5 2019-20: +0.0 2020-21: -0.5 Most negative winter PDO since 2011-12 (-1.3).